Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: RS Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
NOx	1A2f	5357	5052	4290	2411	3153	3383	4162	3905	4422	3062	3952	4312	4336	3719	3909	3954	4336	4416	4539	3604	3445	3382	2993	2751	2724	2840	2986	3146
NOx	1A3bi	19799	18283	16016	10198	15683	15383	15405	16225	16704	15189	17346	18197	17521	17881	17558	16419	15352	15139	14884	13760	14148	12304	11379	11138	10926	12011	11782	11552
NOx	1A4bi	5956	4655	5294	5091	4708	3901	4543	4616	5027	4745	4929	4819	5042	5187	5349	4859	4127	5265	4712	4843	4806	4855	4877	4155	4031	4010	4483	4254
NMVOC	11B	530					61	947	54	491	40	2780	161	339	491	71	18	173	7756	201	424	176	713	2611	196	99	289	104	368
SOx	1A2gviii	28897	20097	25145	17700	14702	8927	16819	19747	19428	19125	16027	21102	23265	25705	24001	19043	21573	18886	16214	12021	13960	19448	15862	11828	10891	11944	17751	13267
CO	1A2a	62	34	14	2	1	3	15	24	23	4	16	12	13	17	17012	19791	24298	20609	22010	12510	14040	17511	6088	7476	11268	15986	6996	14046
CO	1A4ai	4388	4062	5859	6239	5211	1482	4206	4126	6736	6048	5583	5410	5867	6132	6270	5916	2281	7656	3070	5882	8258	11169	5109	3781	2123	2814	3327	2053
CO	1A4bi	281121	222413	221470	220726	206382	170675	189318	190196	208945	203023	211665	207029	216326	221602	223731	206792	175638	210962	196265	212038	205565	202240	204629	173928	175515	172258	190921	178904

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
PM2.5	1A1a	1159	1145	1090	1142	1144	1166	1182	1187	1184	1109	990	1081	1003	1050	836	1018	1008	1015
PM10	1A1a	2632	2585	2571	2692	2722	2589	2681	2681	2722	2527	2270	2516	2337	2463	1942	2371	2348	2370
PM10	1B1a	1367	1304	1328	1401	1435	1470	1545	1557	1621	1611	1590	1746	1627	1715	1265	1602	1632	1671
TSP	1A1a	3873	3801	3788	3967	4010	3804	3946	3942	4008	3718	3337	3700	3438	3623	2853	3485	3451	3482
TSP	1B1a	2898	2763	2814	2969	3042	3114	3274	3299	3434	3413	3370	3700	3447	3635	2681	3395	3458	3540
BC	1A2gvii	0	0	1	1	2	2	2	222	199	158	110	176	122	161	118	118	103	93
BC	1A4cii								0	61	49	75	50	59	126	132	46	46	56

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Pb	1A3bii	4466800	4447400	4332500	2348100	4582500	4885400	5476800	6867700	8503700	6276200	5022200	4698400	4473200	14543200	15882800	15315800	14546500	15064300	14841000	13100300	8474000	986900	742500	431400	432400	594000	595377	596754
Pb	1A4ai	631631	584654	843289	898027	749986	213355	605411	593801	969466	870441	803513	778710	844386	882630	902435	851452	328324	1102007	411447	818987	1160696	1567345	701713	517945	274954	369866	439897	252308
Pb	2C1	4185388	2524760	2668307	724037	556013	728065	2756339	4100544	3920510	920083	2784359	2380274	2364291	2844381	20817223	26784942	42835178	36661027	38776644	26129215	31886189	29844594	6709000	7751509	11065880	19378447	22081441	37254317
Cd	1A2gviii	67769	46656	48858	34567	29305	21577	39134	46650	39806	37025	26632	43734	48761	54220	49760	48134	55252	46799	31497	28869	27498	40527	32130	33555	26907	28496	37642	33749
Cd	2C1	70082	42277	44689	12127	9313	12194	46163	68675	65660	15410	46632	39865	39597	47637	146600	179869	281737	237404	255584	171195	207918	198390	45257	51780	74304	129833	160349	245248
Cd	2C7a	2265000	2010000	2025000	765000	1080000	1170000	1560000	1695000	1410000	750000	675156	484615	525731	203788	169886	444077	589296	437727	472572	397122	320185	392331	488323	494012	473249	641661	891303	1019654
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	4019325	3506679	3376193	2002647	2233643	2417521	2868256	3077611	2813593	1888256	1956800	1773395	1862383	1587969	1670156	1878027	2151882	1987305	1971645	1908458	1842057	1976063	1873536	1850656	1694686	2096791	2456223	2653974
Hg	1A1a	1106760	970848	896648	855549	786964	1002709	964533	1038605	1044643	775018	879336	859465	904206	946636	969271	840721	894647	889993	924883	848888	771841	871401	811318	861151	672493	823293	815478	825545
Hg	1A1c	1080013	450859	1054908	979594	901718	761337	837676	852021	828454	709079	719325	732646	773633	816670	836139	631715	594827	547691	577407	285554	585375	693592	533231	495252	196566	325441	541578	324260
Hg	1A2f	132941	118127	99751	53333	79011	83124	108040	98555	110380	77172	103733	118482	117404	101675	109760	111524	125685	131124	139307	108927	104370	102635	89705	77993	78666	81067	88242	93477
Hg	1A4ai	37238	34468	49716	52943	44216	12578	35692	35008	57155	51317	47371	45909	49781	52036	53203	50198	19356	64969	27363	51260	71334	96240	44824	33422	19582	25714	30341	19883
Hg	2C1	1696	1010	985	260	197	266	1021	1526	1457	336	1034	879	876	1059	176090	233415	376929	325631	340778	230093	281407	260999	58485	68063	96947	169396	181036	326482
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	2793033	1933490	2579226	2350529	2190358	2154574	2336077	2431539	2472597	1986680	2125827	2145690	2257370	2356815	2588759	2194984	2306755	2305118	2362982	1805371	2108548	2340517	1851692	1835347	1334278	1699195	1967837	1884457

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
DIOX	1A4ai	957	886	1278	1360	1136	323	917	900	1469	1319	1217	1180	1279	1337	1367	1290	497	1669	623	1241	1759	2373	1063	786	418	562	668	385
DIOX	1B1b	6324	2640	6177	5736	5280	4458	4905	4989	4851	4152	4212	4290	4530	4782	4896	3699	3483	3207	3381	2517	3156	3186	2907	2946	1518	1758	2304	2810
HCB	1A2gviii	53788	39375	83991	65701	55245	25549	52498	55903	76727	70236	85190	82424	92487	98271	96115	48593	51044	50356	74407	41728	62237	110561	70328	66448	56069	65198	92261	74016
PCB	2C5	25869000	101135400	149435000	15938400	31844800	42379000	92668800	92865000	80997000	18200200	22877000	22871800	23207200	22221800	14027000	12131600	16728400	21075600	31200000	36493600	62483200	67984332	47795800	19619600
PCB	2C6	21600000	35100000	37800000	6300000	3600000	5400000	27000000	35100000	12600000	900000	7200000	11700000	1350000	1800000	90000
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	844229483	927287453	979851850	813337576	826367203	837029846	911794375	920198147	885081661	803795519	816185044	815407390	786832761	783989757	775681771	774383376	778880080	781258762	789074741	781520246	805487027	815199935	782633460	753893326	725810865	725215685	723655059	717557319