Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: RS Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NOx	1A2e	1726	1505	2118	1722	1456	1020	1825	1941	2210	1802	1804	1822	1991	2202	2474	1125	1076	1558	1179	1412	2939	4528	6387	2414	2458	1934	1105
NOx	1A3bi	19799	18283	16016	10198	15683	15383	15405	16225	16704	15189	17346	18197	17521	17881	17558	16419	15352	15139	14884	13760	14148	12304	11379	11138	10926	12011	11782
NMVOC	11B	530					61	947	54	491	40	2780	161	339	491	71	18	173	7756	201	424	176	713	2611	196	99	289	104
CO	1A2a	62	34	14	2	1	3	15	24	23	4	16	12	13	17	17012	19791	24298	20609	22010	12510	14040	17511	6089	7477	11270	15988	6989
CO	1A4ai	5900	5464	6495	6812	5759	2054	4852	4790	7389	6650	6238	6104	6465	6735	6898	6856	3226	8474	3713	6640	8543	11428	5250	4448	3168	3977	4002

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
PM2.5	1A1a	1159	1145	1090	1142	1144	1166	1182	1187	1184	1109	990	1081	1003	1050	836	1018	1008
PM10	1A1a	2632	2585	2571	2692	2722	2589	2681	2681	2722	2527	2270	2516	2337	2463	1942	2371	2348
PM10	1B1a	1367	1304	1328	1401	1435	1470	1545	1557	1621	1611	1590	1746	1627	1715	1265	1602	1632
TSP	1A1a	3873	3801	3788	3967	4010	3804	3946	3942	4008	3718	3337	3700	3438	3623	2853	3485	3451
TSP	1B1a	2898	2763	2814	2969	3042	3114	3274	3299	3434	3413	3370	3700	3447	3635	2681	3395	3458
BC	1A2c	34	59	71	79	166	162	176	194	11	15	15	61	71	38	35	40	49
BC	1A2e	38	38	45	51	53	6	3	16	33	56	121	149	175	153	114	90	90
BC	1A2gvii	0	0	1	1	2	2	2	222	199	158	110	176	122	161	118	118	103
BC	1A4cii								0	61	49	75	50	59	126	132	46	46

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A3bii	4466800	4447400	4332500	2348100	4582500	4885400	5476800	6867700	8503700	6276200	5022200	4698400	4473200	14543200	15882800	15315800	14546500	15064300	14841000	13100300	8474000	986900	742500	431400	432400	594000	595377
Pb	1A4ai	661423	614302	858953	914286	766608	230913	623307	611704	987674	888629	823889	801884	864122	902367	922182	918852	396033	1135622	443379	856670	1173613	1578990	707737	548785	323655	424011	470782
Pb	2C1	3901388	2352760	2404307	652037	500013	656065	2484339	3696544	3532510	828083	2505959	2142274	2127891	2559981	20347223	26268142	42105978	36661027	38776644	26129215	31886189	29844594	6709000	7751509	11065880	22102811	20941681
Cd	2C1	65325	39396	40267	10921	8375	10988	41607	61908	59161	13869	41969	35878	35637	42873	138727	171213	269523	237404	255584	171195	207918	198390	45257	51780	74304	175466	141258
Cd	2C7a	2265000	2010000	2025000	765000	1080000	1170000	1560000	1695000	1410000	750000	675156	484615	525731	203788	169886	444077	589296	437727	472572	397122	320185	392331	488323	494012	473249	641661	891303
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	3945450	3457272	3322495	1966664	2203153	2394156	2824422	3024064	2767518	1849703	1925388	1725713	1809670	1529212	1612827	1823298	2086821	1948788	2008825	1901113	1827273	1949731	1850561	1842747	1699400	2140027	2426616
Hg	1A1a	1106760	970848	896648	855549	786964	1002709	964533	1038605	1044643	775018	879336	859465	904206	946636	969271	840721	894647	889993	924883	848888	771841	871401	811318	861151	672493	823293	815478
Hg	1A1c	1080013	450859	1054908	979594	901718	761337	837676	852021	828454	709079	719325	732646	773633	816670	836139	631715	594827	547691	577407	285554	585375	693592	533231	495252	196566	325441	541578
Hg	1A2f	132941	118127	99751	53333	79011	83124	108040	98555	110380	77172	103733	118482	117404	101675	109760	111524	125685	131124	139307	108927	104370	102635	89705	77993	78666	81067	88242
Hg	1A4ai	51770	48519	53029	55037	46009	14741	39206	38877	60787	53998	50237	49291	51629	53961	55605	55044	24277	69639	29137	52751	71767	96446	45124	33883	20672	26843	31073
Hg	1A4bi	143214	106312	122452	119658	106383	68368	91984	93468	113941	105580	104406	100575	107209	112793	115935	102075	67853	109445	116235	78882	78640	89152	79788	68018	60718	57980	74958
Hg	2C1	1596	950	892	234	177	240	926	1384	1321	304	937	795	793	959	175926	233234	376674	325631	340778	230093	281407	260999	58485	68063	96947	170350	180637
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	2788820	1947420	2532370	2310174	2155129	2132625	2301900	2395192	2433128	1949148	2089381	2103103	2202695	2296910	2530675	2158268	2265439	2278576	2313952	1776690	2083367	2301570	1825326	1810083	1313956	1675858	1936020

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	1A4ai	1099	1016	1358	1441	1216	404	1000	983	1552	1401	1308	1275	1368	1426	1457	1451	659	1780	728	1372	1807	2420	1087	906	601	767	787
DIOX	1B1b	6324	2640	6177	5736	5280	4458	4905	4989	4851	4152	4212	4290	4530	4782	4896	3699	3483	3207	3381	2517	3156	3186	2907	2946	1518	1758	2304
PCB	2C5	25869000	101135400	149435000	15938400	31844800	42379000	92668800	92865000	80997000	18200200	22877000	22871800	23207200	22221800	14027000	12131600	16728400	21075600	31200000	36493600	62483200	67984332	47795800	19619600
PCB	2C6	21600000	35100000	37800000	6300000	3600000	5400000	27000000	35100000	12600000	900000	7200000	11700000	1350000	1800000	90000
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	843721517	927045952	979368362	813004903	826067568	836759600	911413172	919724653	884628460	803530179	815792081	815069272	786451708	783556011	775128298	774016754	778301182	781135259	788795949	781400272	805476391	815186369	782625645	753877587	725762225	726897739	722935634