Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: RS Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	1A1a	75453	65293	66116	66479	66754	68236	63530	74187	75471	64378	81388	80226	84365	88498	90867	75469	79352	79162	81803	75279	72197	80765	74483	77818	59094	74766
NOx	1A2f	5357	5052	4290	2411	3153	3383	4162	3905	4422	3062	3952	4312	4336	3719	3909	3954	4336	4416	4539	3604	3445	3382	2993	2751	2724	2757
NOx	1A3bi	19799	18283	16016	10198	15683	15383	15405	16225	16704	15189	17346	18197	17521	17881	17558	16419	15352	15139	14884	13760	14148	12304	11379	11138	10926	12011
NMVOC	11B	530					61	947	54	491	40	2780	161	339	491	71	18	173	7756	201	424	176	713	2611	196	99	289
NMVOC	1A4bi	30806	28557	22215	19866	20760	21789	21946	19575	21099	20370	23926	24029	24375	24738	24846	22736	22876	23464	21223	27696	25938	24258	25598	21933	23191	26171
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	190541	171188	160674	143958	146100	149331	149636	152237	154892	136324	149980	148444	148496	150984	153346	149535	150223	150907	146740	147692	138779	137869	132771	132081	122727	132451
SOx	1A1a	399750	345190	337757	349428	353339	360503	332997	388895	398818	340903	433598	424868	445668	467575	476899	398652	421333	418896	434283	399746	382077	427118	393388	414064	312899	397034
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	421736	369463	360613	360661	369158	378495	355365	404791	420087	355037	454082	446874	470232	493184	504852	427738	453654	454569	462078	423744	404888	449595	414539	434406	327300	415507
NH3	1A4bi	3427	2971	2208	2207	2157	2158	2158	2157	2158	2157	2354	2354	2355	2355	2355	2354	2350	2346	1960	2915	2815	2568	2767	2378	2497	2767
CO	1A2a	62	34	14	2	1	3	15	24	23	4	16	12	13	17	17012	19791	24298	20609	22010	12510	14040	17511	6089	7477	11270	15988
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	438290	419954	347744	255569	320615	333867	341391	321656	341057	303907	351500	359412	353270	365533	380891	351034	342413	355916	321232	337846	315667	304273	275814	256649	247659	277282

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
PM10	1A1a	2760	2717	2716	2850	2878	2615	2698	2696	2738	2547	2399	2640	2428	2540	1941	2452
TSP	1A1a	4062	3996	4003	4201	4241	3841	3971	3965	4031	3748	3527	3884	3573	3737	2851	3604
TSP	1B1a	2898	2763	2814	2969	3042	3114	3274	3299	3434	3413	3370	3700	3447	3635	2681	3395
BC	1A2c	21	47	57	62	149	161	175	193	10	15	15	60	70	32	30	37
BC	1A2e						1	2	27	31	60	115	144	136	46	53	61
BC	1A4ai	39	48	69	74	69	34	36	41	209	76	64	69	39	68	91	116
BC	1A5a	28	53	126	134	120	21	23	50
BC	NATIONALTOTAL	3042	3132	3372	3361	3602	3367	3212	3468	2843	3625	3668	3634	3840	3387	3326	3633

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A1a	4425077	3813456	3735722	3874188	3919381	3998709	3688423	4305444	4422700	3777598	4807965	4710999	4947560	5190941	5295795	4417906	4673926	4646673	4821032	4439284	4241669	4743227	4368704	4600953	3477393	4412174
Pb	1A3bii	4466800	4447400	4332500	2348100	4582500	4885400	5476800	6867700	8503700	6276200	5022200	4698400	4473200	14543200	15882800	15315800	14546500	15064300	14841000	13100300	8474000	986900	742500	431400	432400	594000
Pb	1A4bi	1703143	1975176	1733236	1104372	1441292	1717188	1757179	1119766	1529510	1335322	1914523	1941693	2036552	2133852	2162044	1595925	1640804	1803657	1944818	1851524	1569139	1590990	1570226	1329412	1442251	1724779
Pb	2C1	3901388	2352760	2404307	652037	500013	656065	2484339	3696544	3532510	828083	2505959	2142274	2127891	2559981	20347223	26268142	42105978	36661027	38776644	26129215	31886189	29844594	6709000	7751509	11065880	22102811
Cd	1A1a	537157	471943	460144	470675	474897	484599	450603	527465	536679	460389	582978	571469	596071	625431	636998	538030	567708	564626	584294	539046	512780	572134	526928	554195	419170	531689
Cd	1A4ai	11969	13495	13231	4511	7091	9715	11401	6082	7026	7727	9866	10945	13554	14721	14318	7469	7954	9367	65369	19500	15629	16611	9363	20146	27330	32368
Cd	1A4bi	640678	561012	419916	412659	407436	410620	411082	403728	408455	406214	448425	448739	449832	450955	451281	444748	444568	445751	377212	549421	528121	483621	519391	446293	468974	521264
Cd	2C1	65325	39396	40267	10921	8375	10988	41607	61908	59161	13869	41969	35878	35637	42873	138727	171213	269523	237404	255584	171195	207918	198390	45257	51780	74304	175466
Cd	2C7a	2265000	2010000	2025000	765000	1080000	1170000	1560000	1695000	1410000	750000	675156	484615	525731	203788	169886	444077	589296	437727	472572	397122	320185	392331	488323	494012	473249	641661
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	3738661	3291269	3157620	1831302	2131371	2230201	2634215	2846815	2591951	1770470	1912894	1719500	1810434	1529637	1609482	1808577	2095361	1937716	1983575	1887621	1822285	1928046	1827672	1803357	1664568	2183730
Hg	1A1a	852235	726491	716217	746576	755920	771281	708692	825880	852404	726099	926292	907924	957503	1004561	1026502	850083	900811	895563	930505	856414	818948	916971	844792	889474	672157	852803
Hg	1A1c	583579	241613	583850	544060	499013	406035	459549	462430	455218	392987	394707	403174	426726	451421	461252	328952	309743	285199	300672	200605	251533	253924	231688	234796	120985	140113
Hg	1A2f	132941	118127	99751	53333	79011	83124	108040	98555	110380	77172	103733	118482	117404	101675	109760	111524	125685	131124	139307	108927	104370	102635	89705	77993	78666	81067
Hg	2C1	1596	950	892	234	177	240	926	1384	1321	304	937	795	793	959	175926	233234	376674	325631	340778	230093	281407	260999	58485	68063	96947	170350
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1893055	1437178	1739916	1573115	1586418	1526916	1592663	1664029	1711986	1434800	1707521	1728257	1803138	1871386	2088037	1782838	2001846	2007427	1979636	1680393	1776478	1845688	1502271	1535615	1192032	1488952

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
DIOX	1A1a	2976	2540	2500	2590	2619	2673	2463	2874	2955	2521	3212	3149	3314	3476	3551	2953	3122	3105	3222	2966	2839	3176	2926	3082	2332	2957
DIOX	1B1b	6324	2640	6177	5736	5280	4458	4905	4989	4851	4152	4212	4290	4530	4782	4896	3699	3483	3207	3381	2517	3156	3186	2907	2946	1518	1758
HCB	1A1a	1972592	1661281	1631609	1712450	1736386	1771248	1622550	1889353	1956882	1665237	2130922	2086755	2204228	2312059	2362458	1952193	2069303	2056284	2137656	1965828	1882308	2108856	1942540	2047622	1546314	1962621
HCB	1A4bi	246540	216048	161798	158798	156908	158224	158414	155374	157328	156402	172804	172934	173386	173850	173985	171285	171231	171739	145475	211556	203283	186206	199932	171787	180533	200703
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	2239840	1895943	1810882	1879400	1904941	1942001	1797996	2059301	2132165	1834469	2321064	2278363	2396677	2503724	2602443	2227316	2370980	2350606	2424557	2273988	2197404	2405814	2197707	2291443	1793879	2250044
PCB	2C5	11400000	96900000	148200000	15200000	24700000	36100000	83600000	79800000	68400000	7600000	22877000	22871800	23207200	22221800	14027000	12131600	16728400	21075600	31200000	36493600	62483200	67984332	47795800	19619600
PCB	2C6	21600000	35100000	37800000	6300000	3600000	5400000	27000000	35100000	12600000	900000	7200000	11700000	1350000	1800000	90000
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	825350183	921464867	974520657	807209670	815403196	830051478	900510934	903384315	868199565	789094307	813280135	812775888	783778579	780610897	772115628	771582572	777909755	779151176	786797923	780470039	803548202	812648121	780937517	752479828	724479513	726004688