Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: RS Submission year: 2016

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2014
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2014
PMs: 2000 - 2014

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
NOx	1A1a	75453	65293	66116	66479	66754	68236	63530	74187	75471	64378	81388	80226	84365	88498	90867	75469	79352	79162	81803	75278	72195	80764	74482	77816	59091
NOx	1A3bi	19799	18283	16016	10198	15683	15383	15405	16225	16704	15189	17346	18197	17521	17881	17558	16419	15352	15139	14884	13760	14148	12304	11379	11138	10926
NMVOC	11B	530					61	947		491	40	2780	161	339	491	71	18	173	7756	201	424	176	713	2611	196	99
NMVOC	1A4bi	30806	28557	22215	19866	20760	21789	21946	19575	21099	20370	23926	24029	24375	24738	24846	22736	22876	23464	21223	27696	25938	24258	25598	21933	23191
SOx	1A1a	399750	345190	337757	349428	353339	360503	332997	388895	398818	340903	433598	424868	445668	467575	476899	398652	421333	418897	434284	399748	382080	427122	393391	414070	312905
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	422165	369955	361418	360791	369295	378724	355557	404976	420064	355185	454225	447101	470535	493389	504173	426580	452479	454267	463154	429353	407307	452130	415797	434334	327245
NH3	1A4bi	3427	2971	2208	2207	2157	2158	2158	2157	2158	2157	2354	2354	2355	2355	2355	2354	2350	2346	1960	2915	2815	2568	2767	2378	2497
CO	1A2a	62	34	14	2	1	3	15	24	23	4	16	12	13	17	17012	19791	24298	20609	22010	12510	14040	17511	6089	7477	11270
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	438569	420500	347734	255157	320249	333693	341269	321592	340778	303828	351413	359535	353575	365708	380618	350347	341695	336444	315371	328604	297715	279926	261160	230878	236383

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
PM2.5	1A1a	1211	1198	1148	1206	1207	1176	1189	1192	1188	1109	1031	1120	1030	1060	813
PM10	1A1a	2760	2717	2716	2850	2878	2615	2698	2694	2734	2538	2386	2626	2417	2516	1915
PM10	1B1a	1367	1304	1328	1401	1435	1470	1545	1557	1621	1611	1590	1746	1627	1715	1265
TSP	1A1a	4062	3996	4003	4201	4241	3841	3971	3963	4027	3738	3513	3869	3561	3711	2823
TSP	1B1a	2898	2763	2814	2969	3042	3114	3274	3299	3434	3413	3370	3700	3447	3635	2681
BC	1A2c	21	47	57	62	149	161	175	193	9	15	15	58	68	32	27

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Pb	1A1a	4425077	3813456	3735722	3874188	3919381	3998709	3688423	4305444	4422700	3777598	4807965	4710999	4947560	5190941	5295795	4417906	4673926	4646475	4820669	4438259	4240281	4741739	4367497	4598358	3474616
Pb	1A3bii	4466800	4447400	4332500	2348100	4582500	4885400	5476800	6867700	8503700	6276200	5022200	4698400	4473200	14543200	15882800	15315800	14546500	15064300	14841000	13100300	8474000	986900	742500	431400	432400
Pb	1A4bi	1703143	1975176	1733236	1104372	1441292	1717188	1757179	1119766	1529510	1335322	1914523	1941693	2036552	2133852	2162044	1595925	1640804	1803657	1944818	1851524	1569139	1590990	1570226	1329412	1442251
Pb	2C1	3901388	2352760	2404307	652037	500013	656065	2484339	3696544	3532510	828083	2505959	2142274	2127891	2559981	20347223	26268142	42105978	36661027	38776644	26129215	31886189	29844594	6709000	7751509	11065880
Pb	2C5	810000	6885000	10530000	1080000	1755000	2565000	5940000	5670000	4860000	540000	701857	701846	702520	700541	28162	24357	33585	42313	62640	73268	125447	136492	95959	39390
Pb	2C7a	25670000	22780000	22950000	8670000	12240000	13260000	17680000	19210000	15980000	8500000	7712200	5496500	6039700	2356600	1994200	5199900	6890200	5169900	5577400	4596400	3708500	4673741	5747213	5886888	5524728
Cd	1A1a	537157	471943	460144	470675	474897	484599	450603	527465	536679	460389	582978	571469	596071	625431	636998	538030	567708	564621	584286	539021	512747	572098	526899	554132	419102
Cd	1A4ai	3772	8071	8569	2470	5901	8565	8965	2820	6746	4895	9697	9975	10907	11855	12113	6593	7027	8602	63884	17934	14137	15046	8482	19632	26494
Cd	1A4bi	640678	561012	419916	412659	407436	410620	411082	403728	408455	406214	448425	448739	449832	450955	451281	444748	444568	445751	377212	549421	528121	483621	519391	446293	468974
Cd	2C1	65325	39396	40267	10921	8375	10988	41607	61908	59161	13869	41969	35878	35637	42873	138727	171213	269523	237404	255584	171195	207918	198390	45257	51780	74304
Cd	2C6	108000	175500	189000	31500	18000	27000	135000	175500	63000	4500	36000	58500	6750	9000	450
Cd	2C7a	2265000	2010000	2025000	765000	1080000	1170000	1560000	1695000	1410000	750000	675156	484615	525731	203788	169886	444077	589296	437727	472572	397122	320185	392331	488323	494012	473249
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	3796569	3460528	3353404	1839144	2127202	2240755	2758107	3010282	2644593	1748223	1922992	1745862	1776232	1498681	1567435	1778531	2063202	1902741	1951304	1867493	1779234	1882054	1801534	1763705	1631983
Hg	1A1a	852235	726491	716217	746576	755920	771281	708692	825880	852404	726099	926292	907924	957503	1004561	1026502	850083	900811	895562	930502	856405	818936	916957	844781	889450	672132
Hg	1A1c	583579	241613	583850	544060	499013	406035	459549	462430	455218	392987	394707	403174	426726	451421	461252	328952	309743	285199	300672	200605	251533	253924	231688	234796	120985
Hg	2C1	1596	950	892	234	177	240	926	1384	1321	304	937	795	793	959	175926	233234	376674	325631	340778	230093	281407	260999	58485	68063	96947
Hg	2C5	6000	51000	78000	8000	13000	19000	44000	42000	36000	4000	5000	5000	5000	5000
Hg	2C6	120000	195000	210000	35000	20000	30000	150000	195000	70000	5000	40000	65000	7500	10000	500
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1838051	1510772	1850585	1530316	1510751	1463833	1624064	1742450	1667768	1345015	1624892	1650957	1671163	1755854	1953093	1655012	1837317	1805897	1826268	1553436	1612089	1694805	1394632	1439027	1102059

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
HCB	1A2f	12480	11089	9364	5007	7417	7803	10142	9252	10362	7245	9738	11123	11022	9545	10304	10498	11825	12337	13098	10248	9823	9657	8441	7347	7397
HCB	1A4ai	1269	2760	2934	843	2028	2945	3078	958	2321	1675	3338	3431	3747	4073	4164	2267	2416	2959	24477	6585	5118	5424	3043	7372	10085
HCB	1A4bi	246540	216048	161798	158798	156908	158224	158414	155374	157328	156402	172804	172934	173386	173850	173985	171285	171231	171739	145475	211556	203283	186206	199932	171787	180533
PCB	2C5	11400000	96900000	148200000	15200000	24700000	36100000	83600000	79800000	68400000	7600000	25964000	25957600	26370400	25157600	17264000	14931200	20588800	25939200	38400000	44915200	76902400	83673024	58825600	24147200
PCB	2C6	21600000	35100000	37800000	6300000	3600000	5400000	27000000	35100000	12600000	900000	7200000	11700000	1350000	1800000	90000
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	825354956	921464867	974520657	807209670	815403196	830051478	900510934	903384315	868199565	789094307	816367135	815861688	786941779	783546697	775352628	774382172	781769963	784014349	793997839	788891385	817967006	828336377	791967031	757006788	724478855