Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: RS Submission year: 2013

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2011
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2011
PMs: 2000 - 2011

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
NOx	1A2fi	6106	5707	4818	2667	3582	3850	4719	4376	5029	3440	4336	4726	4841	4173	4366	4511	4974	5066	5230	4139	3968	3969
NOx	1A3bi	13639	14489	13387	7607	13129	13378	13869	15071	16094	13950	16075	17731	17807	19658	18533	18968	18774	19857	20008	18397	21906	22854
NOx	1A3biii	25564	25006	21514	16075	23849	24226	25479	26460	27333	23524	28688	31449	32545	34303	37245	39431	39472	42011	44518	42063	44961	46084
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	186490	171628	159166	135046	151428	160726	162297	179466	182936	131026	154379	158215	162788	172916	177746	181264	187040	193660	197861	196377	197110	208450
NMVOC	11B	530					61	947	54	491	40	2780	161	339	491	71	18	173	7756	201	424	176	713
NMVOC	1A3bi	26232	27908	25688	14647	25184	25641	26289	28306	29989	25807	29271	31402	31068	33124	31263	28422	28891	28179	27028	21925	25553	24729
NMVOC	1A3bv	5912	6090	5799	3971	5719	5788	5940	6368	6797	6596	6933	7570	7578	7863	8191	8331	8495	8828	8934	9302	9623	9906
SOx	1A4bi	8932	5761	10083	10041	8810	4950	7471	7469	9487	8594	12925	7140	11509	11103	3289	12878	13079	15136	12140	8058	7086	7854
CO	1A2a	819	448	181	22	8	38	200	321	301	49	212	161	172	225	17340	20186	24853	21095	22527	12839	14444	17923
CO	1A3bi	192072	192072	177250	99139	173295	176493	179634	191623	202294	171704	194544	205815	202963	223705	203436	199073	186649	180506	172262	141921	160973	154295
CO	1A3bii	3464	3671	3578	1897	3984	4049	4337	4644	5609	4649	5898	7160	6621	7474	7972	8677	8311	9437	9792	10535	10954	11530
CO	1A3biii	7103	6920	6008	4350	6480	6595	6997	7005	7144	6144	7446	8175	8413	8801	9466	10034	9846	10417	10984	10321	11031	11260
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	390563	361859	377386	262748	343731	326482	353012	353517	387730	316194	368441	340278	369956	397025	380841	399270	391354	382823	382210	316397	340352	343322

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
PM10	4D1a	7970	7973	7967	7980	7977	7975	7964	7883	7945	7951	7943	7950

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Pb	1A3bi	186674749	198789955	180916394	101945132	177015525	179941546	184136591	198221339	209598412	179022322	202717677	217570081	214538322	212016022	211812739	205671833	189496795	178602402	169370068	122743056	665334	722854
Pb	1A3bii	3178644	3390584	3316758	1713003	3683853	3714236	3956299	4218007	5201470	4253062	5407447	6626143	6053164	6856615	7315354	7482524	7480739	8571934	8879402	9644912	51718	54175
Pb	2C1	3901388	2352760	2404307	652037	500013	656065	2484339	3696544	3532510	828083	2505959	2142274	2127891	2559981	7538145	8500467	11291084	9922572	10930817	6679144	7749370	8703097
Pb	2C5a	25670000	22780000	22950000	8670000	12240000	13260000	17680000	19210000	15980000	8500000	7712200	5496500	6039700	2356600	1994200	5199900	6890200	5169900	5577400	4596400	3708500	4673741
Pb	2C5b	78000	663000	1014000	104000	169000	247000	572000	546000	468000	52000	26819000	26808600	27479400	25508600	28054000	24263200	33456800	42151200	62400000	72987200	124966400	135968664
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	235353329	240843633	224746720	123328365	204605340	209263211	220909938	237436022	248066020	200773558	254577859	267609758	265661625	259611977	267647996	260778689	258760300	255492067	268761013	227982428	146015997	159728727
Cd	1A1b											36391	242161	257142	280852	320105	239155	192934	170834	174932	196302	219332	163831
Cd	1A3dii	1200000	810000	780000	150000	180000	240000	570000	690000	750000	480000	570000	570000	570000	540000	510000	510000	540000	510000	540000	510000	420000	330000
Cd	2C1	65325	39396	40267	10921	8375	10988	41607	61908	59161	13869	41969	35878	35637	42873	74682	82375	115448	103712	116355	73944	87234	92683
Cd	2C5a	2265000	2010000	2025000	765000	1080000	1170000	1560000	1695000	1410000	750000	675156	484615	525731	203788	169886	444077	589296	437727	472572	397122	320185	392331
Cd	2C5b	402	3417	5226	536	871	1273	2948	2814	2412	268	67220	67194	68871	63944	70135	60658	83642	105378	156000	182468	312416	339922
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	4409103	3692380	3682646	1608509	1956919	2156223	2959664	3318833	3056647	1786599	2017286	2023651	2065526	1796893	1818475	1988810	2208766	2035252	2176847	2082627	2061685	2098243
Hg	1A1a	1052604	969482	925640	921814	931444	994512	927094	1078096	1073761	745368	826897	818479	794182	877757	872794	910314	968512	963340	1000689	1025236	980208	1099331
Hg	1A3dii	800000	540000	520000	100000	120000	160000	380000	460000	500000	320000	380000	380000	380000	360000	340000	340000	360000	340000	360000	340000	280000	220000
Hg	1A4ai	340646	213978	304674	129916	183566	222328	230394	147356	262224	107702	90847	69021	67481	78351	176300	19655	20630	19500	22687	43431	49011	60436
Hg	1A4bi	55529	38087	62565	61721	54897	32299	45194	46189	57690	53590	77080	43372	68593	67926	24018	78494	79161	81913	73162	50809	45102	48584
Hg	2C1	1596	950	892	234	177	240	926	1384	1321	304	937	795	793	959	47835	55557	68525	58246	62320	35592	40039	49584
Hg	2C5b	5580	47430	72540	7440	12090	17670	40920	39060	33480	3720	4650	4650	4650	4650
Hg	2C5d	120000	195000	210000	35000	20000	30000	150000	195000	70000	5000	40000	65000	7500	10000	500
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	2506208	2103268	2188730	1358013	1410020	1545938	1863127	2055727	2087128	1317451	1508790	1496111	1443784	1515713	1581721	1514215	1601532	1564808	1620947	1613114	1513090	1584954

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	27604	22436	29009	23294	23383	19664	23690	20184	24740	18776	22705	15614	21239	21680	21315	23332	23628	23617	24387	19481	19787	20791
HCB	1A2fi	29844	26518	22393	11973	17737	18660	24254	22125	24779	17324	23287	26598	26356	22825	24640	25036	28215	29436	31273	24453	23430	23040
HCB	1A4bi	49192	53967	56107	54017	58903	52085	52702	56695	54539	55210	58644	45455	55937	61551	56773	66175	60679	56769	59448	56124	64548	61072