Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: RO Submission year: 2023

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2021
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2021
PMs: 2000 - 2021

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
NOx	1A1c	442	579	5650	6300	8563	8501	6809	13773	10712	7290	5708	6214	8992	8853	9844	9339	5929	5962	6262	3401	4060	3515	3211	3239	3937	2565	1875	3538	1341	3532	3787	4319
NOx	1A2a	27603	22793	15853	17396	19457	20988	19855	20098	19449	14651	14396	12987	13872	14280	16812	18296	18826	12762	11116	7081	7354	6933	5542	5836	5749	6600	6470	5785	5660	5634	5240	5805
NOx	1A2c	25976	14912	4305	5742	13267	15192	15069	11539	5822	5670	8778	12087	10431	9758	7641	7653	6987	6025	7024	5801	5560	6082	5256	4287	4131	3417	2670	3289	3471	3837	3750	4157
NOx	1A2f	491	127	7762	6257	6220	6976	8039	6597	7021	5691	10238	11966	11481	6873	10408	9818	10653	11125	10900	8259	7416	8390	8703	7557	8220	9246	8967	9405	10229	10800	11133	11407
NOx	1A2gvii			18890	8910	17144	14117	27215	19030	17939	13504	16398	19199	19968	14799	12441	12896	12913	18365	12124	6499	5662	6552	6882	5731	5297	5697	5012	4605	4236	3939	3690	3823
NOx	1A2gviii	50925	52281	7452	3884	9865	9866	10120	9827	7812	8747	4839	4439	4731	4337	4904	3028	4046	4188	5211	2426	2702	2868	2596	2632	2586	2367	2472	2478	2591	2690	2474	2351
NOx	1A3bii	4192	3927	4049	3773	4429	4208	5399	5276	5557	5120	5485	6212	6367	6949	6358	9060	9227	8395	8904	8891	8366	8893	9701	9630	10092	10244	11213	11725	12003	12201	11172	11927
NMVOC	1A2gvii			10430	3708	3673	1841	9393	6524	9571	5976	7402	6267	13591	6948	5854	7913	5515	4966	2829	2041	1420	1065	946	933	878	986	852	825	694	744	732	845
NMVOC	2B10a	14772	9191	11519	10841	9624	12004	12100	7151	3917	6381	8740	8039	7893	11494	10606	14301	10009	10304	15334	8423	10143	11045	8769	6580	6919	4265	3604	4056	4749	4156	5669	3433
NMVOC	2D3a	14288	14052	14033	14014	13992	13957	13912	13877	13854	13834	13818	13451	13324	13258	13173	13095	13017	12712	12592	12503	12444	12380	12333	12289	12241	12174	7000	7977	9025	11249	15853	9965
NH3	3B3	51838	47114	42571	39889	33428	34296	35428	30538	30959	25140	20603	19169	21767	22075	28625	30479	30899	29156	27620	25801	24449	23060	21899	21451	21129	20471	19647	18349	16533	16421	16218	15977
CO	1A2gvii			54216	18712	16408	6814	46218	32066	49597	28291	35584	28510	70113	34535	29340	41146	27878	45415	25652	23302	17216	11572	8761	10728	10633	12518	10810	11165	8939	10669	10857	13162
CO	2C3	20128	18476	12863	13408	14184	16872	16828	19644	20965	20889	20793	21578	22391	23766	25831	28620	32023	31509	37494	24172	24902	26880	24304	23703	23495	24762	24909	24811	25335	24041	23137	24231

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
BC	1A2d	147	139	230	385	168	160	158	134	20	15	6	4	5	3	3	4	3	7	4	5	9	8
BC	1A2gvii	764	863	863	629	519	523	513	708	464	250	224	269	284	230	207	222	195	175	159	140	121	116
BC	1B2c	201	250	274	391	286	381	590	288	298	211	227	219	9	8	6	5	4	7	5	5	4	4

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Pb	1A4bi	4903927	3059798	2548462	2118962	1377090	1462362	3202427	3931885	3120934	3092050	3003321	2017890	2136383	2565319	3206841	3162743	2961100	3088427	4125713	3912908	4040640	3662578	3863766	3652659	3905891	3772164	3669862	3635368	3602249	3661543	3704503	3929512
Pb	1B2aiv	1256698	943584	792057	907200	824500	853700	978200	777127	898703	1030789	1062899	1090308	972628	907200	1007843	1088894	1166238	1102294	1085289	1041352	1120464	1261191	1108229	1270548	1288534	1103596	1240746	1257263	1287675	1329814	1183297	1084685
Cd	1A1a	867933	730033	753190	801845	721764	742390	753378	648518	500144	500416	515066	546986	526517	593353	542040	504907	584439	569381	578592	507786	465319	567234	517420	390145	392736	398857	351285	360732	353190	324091	224505	250172
Cd	1A2d			15	1	14	30917	30535	32985	33350	30917	44938	41163	72729	124332	52697	51487	51680	42608	6502	5033	2019	1210	1632	1071	825	1152	937	2137	1292	1389	2762	2637
Cd	1A2gviii	16049	31460	12896	11992	96130	76100	76401	108912	75116	79347	86811	72910	99556	126050	78565	66606	90482	128027	84289	73338	91474	73349	89757	91787	96261	91964	120868	108555	111810	108139	89125	87990
Cd	1A4bi	362378	282470	301355	421848	483820	550227	1186126	1591341	1459480	1369094	1338101	953446	968216	1194709	1450426	1488022	1399973	1459997	1866281	1848508	1919908	1713927	1789044	1693816	1702052	1611209	1622679	1662535	1648340	1658820	1668758	1773082
Cd	2C1	2560333	1716145	1254713	1293830	1352892	1374990	1291481	1317417	1071802	661381	494539	517594	520582	557098	617677	681423	697187	699333	583337	327622	495226	527603	469505	373261	397475	402367	396276	436239	429577	392915	297861	378279
Cd	2C7a	477500	479800	482100	447500	395600	395600	561700	427900	328953	408411	281632	175289	159407	105595	57325	47700	49641	42065	30643
Hg	1A1a	1021579	909839	1004000	1037946	971631	999288	995478	817148	667258	674357	718836	728889	741081	864877	818229	772095	902666	906160	925486	798318	741068	902413	823440	622254	620866	632078	561756	575296	563274	516486	357371	397239
Hg	1A2c	235835	109134	59192	36503	57820	124594	103875	56278	56215	60977	84640	109216	124746	125661	102942	99532	84423	78258	90320	80913	79771	83449	78086	63701	58996	52942	32803	36227	39566	37709	26487	30589
Hg	1A2f	22404	5806	26578	20776	20927	23408	27484	22442	19003	17588	20004	21636	24433	17215	27016	307089	351289	385301	388410	293177	261771	288375	296562	255664	275642	311978	299356	312745	336109	364795	383288	396862
Hg	1A2gviii	208457	166826	36011	26902	53070	41686	41922	40870	27714	34021	24921	23609	33571	24871	25493	18112	25845	22070	25906	16907	17400	16614	16289	16637	17048	16024	16507	17036	17888	18642	16975	16279
Hg	2B10a	651518	477682	177000	168312	198547	214138	144874				682157	679094	611112	867893	968208	967104	1006838	860525	786110	387984	361008	600490	123638	768
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	4186825	3257077	2524316	2429717	2488913	2741217	2608353	2304540	2023657	1765584	2554117	2590194	2606356	3101741	3226988	3523112	3723124	3508783	3372735	2380712	2415891	2859860	2187218	1798454	1830750	1872903	1803614	1827025	1842855	1832709	1588174	1712352
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	4186825	3257077	2524316	2429717	2488913	2741217	2608353	2304540	2023657	1765584	2554117	2590194	2606356	3101741	3226988	3523112	3723124	3508783	3372735	2380712	2415891	2859860	2187218	1798454	1830750	1872903	1803614	1827025	1842855	1832709	1588174	1712352
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	4186825	3257077	2524316	2429717	2488913	2741217	2608353	2304540	2023657	1765584	2554117	2590194	2606356	3101741	3226988	3523112	3723124	3508783	3372735	2380712	2415891	2859860	2187218	1798454	1830750	1872903	1803614	1827025	1842855	1832709	1588174	1712352

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
PCB	1A1c	0	4590	274212	2	165242	380972	521562	395763	455773	116792	128012	136853	93844	1701703	469545	42503	18022	6462	29412	20911	10541	10031	8841	1	1531	1531	2623	1387	281	60	1	2
PCB	1A2c	1185240	8161	874848	325912	1205	986361	843063	345489	725920	877031	1148012	1503482	1678581	1528813	1405222	1368670	1177420	971551	1060291	1042101	1038536	1038027	1043805	838110	743080	721492	341711	337879	388963	292392	1858	10894
PCB	1A5a	2070600	1716151	997390	77860	82791	240381	38930	12581	17851	0	134300	115941	43010	36381	155722	78202	12071	2	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2