Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: RO Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
NOx	1A1c	442	579	5650	6300	8563	8501	6809	13773	10712	7290	5708	6214	8992	8853	9844	9339	5929	5962	6262	3401	4060	3515	3211	3239	3937	2565	1875	3538	1341	3532	3787
NOx	1A2a	27603	22793	15853	17396	19457	20988	19855	20098	19449	14651	14396	12987	13872	14280	16812	18296	18826	12762	11116	7081	7354	6933	5542	5836	5749	6600	6470	5785	5660	5634	5240
NOx	1A2c	25976	14912	4305	5742	13267	15192	15069	11539	5822	5670	8778	12087	10431	9758	7641	7653	6987	6025	7024	5801	5560	6082	5256	4287	4131	3417	2670	3289	3471	3837	3750
NOx	1A2f	491	127	7762	6257	6220	6976	8039	6597	7021	5691	10238	11966	11481	6873	10408	8466	6145	5372	5900	3885	2721	4795	7265	6107	7410	8399	8590	8695	9270	9516	10215
NOx	1A2gvii			18890	8910	17144	14117	27215	19030	17939	13504	16398	19199	19968	14799	12441	12896	12913	18365	12124	6499	5662	6552	6882	5731	5297	5697	5012	4605	4236	3939	3690
NOx	1A2gviii	50925	52281	7452	3884	9865	9866	10120	9827	7812	8747	4839	4439	4731	4337	4904	3028	4046	4188	5211	2426	2702	2868	2596	2632	2586	2367	2472	2478	2591	2690	2474
NMVOC	2B10a	14772	9191	11519	10841	9624	12004	12100	7151	3917	6381	8740	8039	7893	11494	10606	14301	10009	10304	15334	8423	10143	11045	8769	6580	6919	4265	3604	4056	4749	4156	5669
NMVOC	2D3a	27831	27773	27742	27712	27675	27611	27526	27463	27003	27390	27371	27335	25953	25825	25659	25508	25357	24763	24528	24354	24239	24115	24024	23944	23851	23713	23573	23440	23311	23195	23114
NMVOC	2H2	6412	4489	3825	2695	12809	14657	16834	14619	13831	13496	14055	9900	10280	11030	10645	10083	11037	9347	9962	9184	7791	8967	9489	9844	9877	10897	10127	10225	6989	8076	6607
SOx	1A2f	2552	662	1554	931	754	1117	1626	866	1032	752	1365	1560	1360	1040	2258	1918	1737	1962	3846	3560	2303	952	6147	4353	4532	4956	5477	5344	8358	8474	14050
NH3	3B3	51867	47141	42595	39911	33446	34315	35448	30555	30977	25154	20615	19180	21779	22087	28608	30479	30899	29156	27620	25801	24449	23060	21899	21451	21129	20471	19647	18349	16533	16424	16214
CO	1A2gvii			54216	18712	16408	6814	46218	32066	49597	28291	35584	28510	70113	34535	29340	41146	27878	45415	25652	23302	17216	11572	8761	10728	10633	12518	10810	11165	8939	10669	10857
CO	2C3	20128	18476	12863	13408	14184	16872	16828	19644	20965	20889	20793	21578	22391	23766	25831	28620	32023	31509	37494	24172	24902	26880	24304	23703	23495	24762	24909	24811	25335	24041	23137

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
BC	1A2d	147	139	230	385	168	160	158	134	20	15	6	4	5	3	3	4	3	7	4	5	9
BC	1A2gvii	764	863	863	629	519	523	513	708	464	250	224	269	284	230	207	222	195	175	159	140	121
BC	1B2c	201	250	274	391	286	381	590	288	298	211	227	219	9	8	6	5	4	7	5	5	4

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Pb	1A2f	380024	98490	162866	82319	59002	103278	165847	71624	85347	59669	89990	106863	79994	83678	221336	208663	208781	259091	543010	537765	374452	139604	906612	666332	647415	688145	772037	755671	1157335	1169000	2004194
Pb	1A4bi	4903927	3059798	2548462	2118962	1377090	1462362	3202427	3931885	3120934	3092050	3003321	2017890	2136383	2565319	3206841	3162743	2961100	3088427	4125713	3912908	4040640	3662578	3863766	3652659	3905891	3772164	3669862	3635368	3602249	3661543	3704503
Pb	1B2aiv	1256698	943584	792057	907200	824500	853700	978200	777127	898703	1030789	1062899	1090308	972628	907200	1007843	1088894	1166238	1102294	1085289	1041352	1120464	1261191	1108229	1270548	1288534	1103596	1240746	1257263	1287675	1329814	1183297
Pb	2G			6272	24304	25872	4704	6272	13328	17248	32326	108216	315622	560937	737046	1234266	1248634	664010	55573	489620	204560	621154	510769	390675	576601	489087	623670	232384	502498	717558	1210446	1153523
Cd	1A1a	867933	730033	753190	801845	721764	742390	753378	648518	500144	500416	515066	546986	526517	593353	542040	504907	584439	569381	578592	507786	465319	567234	517420	390145	392736	398857	351285	360732	353190	324091	224505
Cd	1A2d			15	1	14	30917	30535	32985	33350	30917	44938	41163	72729	124332	52697	51487	51680	42608	6502	5033	2019	1210	1632	1071	825	1152	937	2137	1292	1389	2762
Cd	1A2gviii	16049	31460	12896	11992	96130	76100	76401	108912	75116	79347	86811	72910	99556	126050	78565	66606	90482	128027	84289	73338	91474	73349	89757	91787	96261	91964	120868	108555	111810	108139	89125
Cd	1A4bi	362378	282470	301355	421848	483820	550227	1186126	1591341	1459480	1369094	1338101	953446	968216	1194709	1450426	1488022	1399973	1459997	1866281	1848508	1919908	1713927	1789044	1693816	1702052	1611209	1622679	1662535	1648340	1658820	1668758
Cd	2C1	2560333	1716145	1254713	1293830	1352892	1374990	1291481	1317417	1071802	661381	494539	517594	520582	557098	617677	681423	697187	699333	583337	327622	495226	527603	469505	373261	397475	402367	396276	436239	429577	392915	297861
Cd	2C7a	477500	479800	482100	447500	395600	395600	561700	427900	328953	408411	281632	175289	159407	105595	57325	47700	49641	42065	30643
Hg	1A1a	1021579	909839	1004000	1037946	971631	999288	995478	817148	667258	674357	718836	728889	741081	864877	818229	772095	902666	906160	925486	798318	741068	902413	823440	622254	620866	632078	561756	575296	563274	516486	357371
Hg	1A2f	22404	5806	26578	20776	20927	23408	27484	22442	19003	17588	20004	21636	24433	17215	27016	25251	24652	23930	37291	35693	25950	13514	57663	42498	42900	45951	50984	50745	78796	77868	126734
Hg	1A2gviii	208457	166826	36011	26902	53070	41686	41922	40870	27714	34021	24921	23609	33571	24871	25493	18112	25845	22070	25906	16907	17400	16614	16289	16637	17048	16024	16507	17036	17888	18642	16975
Hg	2B10a	651518	477682	177000	168312	198547	214138	144874				682157	679094	611112	867893	968208	967104	1006838	860525	786110	387984	361008	600490	123638	768
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	4186825	3257077	2524316	2429717	2488913	2741217	2608353	2304540	2023657	1765584	2554117	2590194	2606356	3101741	3226988	3238855	3394017	3145028	3018864	2120189	2176341	2580659	1945253	1582110	1594976	1603841	1551923	1561481	1581867	1542000	1332111
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	4186825	3257077	2524316	2429717	2488913	2741217	2608353	2304540	2023657	1765584	2554117	2590194	2606356	3101741	3226988	3238855	3394017	3145028	3018864	2120189	2176341	2580659	1945253	1582110	1594976	1603841	1551923	1561481	1581867	1542000	1332111
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	4186825	3257077	2524316	2429717	2488913	2741217	2608353	2304540	2023657	1765584	2554117	2590194	2606356	3101741	3226988	3238855	3394017	3145028	3018864	2120189	2176341	2580659	1945253	1582110	1594976	1603841	1551923	1561481	1581867	1542000	1332111

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
PCB	1A1c	0	4590	274212	2	165242	380972	521562	395763	455773	116792	128012	136853	93844	1701703	469545	42503	18022	6462	29412	20911	10541	10031	8841	1	1531	1531	2623	1387	281	60	1
PCB	1A2c	1185240	8161	874848	325912	1205	986361	843063	345489	725920	877031	1148012	1503482	1678581	1528813	1405222	1368670	1177420	971551	1060291	1042101	1038536	1038027	1043805	838110	743080	721492	341711	337879	388963	292392	1858
PCB	1A5a	2070600	1716151	997390	77860	82791	240381	38930	12581	17851	0	134300	115941	43010	36381	155722	78202	12071	2	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1