Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: RO Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	1A1c	442	579	5650	6300	8563	8501	6809	13773	10712	7290	5708	6214	8992	8853	9844	9339	5929	5962	6262	3401	4060	3515	3211	3239	3937	2565	1875	3538	1341	3532
NOx	1A2a	27603	22793	15853	17396	19457	20988	19855	20098	19449	14651	14396	12987	13872	14280	16812	18296	18826	12762	11116	7081	7354	6933	5542	5836	5749	6600	6470	5785	5660	5634
NOx	1A2c	25976	14912	4305	5742	13267	15192	15069	11539	5822	5670	8778	12087	10431	9758	7641	7653	6987	6025	7024	5801	5560	6082	5256	4287	4131	3417	2670	3289	3471	3837
NOx	1A2f	491	127	7762	6257	6220	6976	8039	6597	7021	5691	10238	11966	11481	6873	10408	8466	6145	5372	5900	3885	2721	4795	7265	6107	7410	8399	8590	8695	9270	9516
NOx	1A2gvii			18890	8910	17144	14117	27215	19030	17939	13504	16398	19199	19968	14799	12441	12896	12913	18365	12124	6499	5662	6552	6882	5731	5297	5697	5012	4605	4236	3939
NOx	1A2gviii	50925	52281	7452	3884	9865	9866	10120	9827	7812	8747	4839	4439	4731	4337	4904	3028	4046	4188	5211	2426	2702	2868	2596	2632	2586	2367	2472	2478	2591	2690
NOx	1A3bii	2615	2403	2685	2486	3024	2821	3812	3710	3929	3639	3914	4594	4824	5392	4940	9052	9249	7357	9454	8856	8183	8498	10848	9636	8812	10395	11404	11937	12206	12480
NMVOC	1A3bi	19670	16200	10584	9267	10566	8856	11948	12898	12634	10510	10637	14073	13769	14004	15591	29840	25818	21992	19411	17065	13867	12216	12335	11082	10905	9951	10114	9849	9118	8544
NMVOC	2B10a	14772	9191	11519	10841	9624	12004	12100	7151	3917	6381	8740	8039	7893	11494	10606	14301	10009	10304	15334	8423	10143	11045	8769	6580	6919	4265	3604	4056	4749	4156
NMVOC	2H2	6412	4489	3825	2695	12809	14657	16834	14619	13831	13496	14055	9900	10280	11030	10645	10083	11037	9347	9962	9184	7791	8967	9489	9844	9877	10897	10127	10225	6989	8076
SOx	1A2f	2552	662	1554	931	754	1117	1626	866	1032	752	1365	1560	1360	1040	2258	1918	1737	1962	3846	3560	2303	952	6147	4353	4532	4956	5477	5344	8358	8474
NH3	3B3	76276	69630	62604	58869	49308	50592	52346	45111	45728	37175	30496	28263	32150	32711	41293	42089	43309	41735	39256	36837	34511	34095	33266	32924	32732	31988	30566	28610	25488	24898
CO	1A2gvii			54216	18712	16408	6814	46218	32066	49597	28291	35584	28510	70113	34535	29340	41146	27878	45415	25652	23302	17216	11572	8761	10728	10633	12518	10810	11165	8939	10669
CO	1A3bi	165574	136367	88917	77823	88772	74374	100235	108322	106089	88288	89315	118139	115374	117208	128327	268969	234250	196366	170502	152194	125460	110114	111005	101035	100640	92563	94270	92009	85378	80323

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PM10	2A2	4408	5037	4752	4749	5138	4475	5005	6119	5267	3756	4100	4062	3503	3375	4317	3676	3717	3937	4076	3585
TSP	2A2	11336	12952	12218	12212	13212	11506	12869	15735	13543	9657	10543	10445	9008	8680	11101	9452	9557	10124	10482	9220
BC	1A2d	147	139	230	385	168	160	158	134	20	15	6	4	5	3	3	4	3	7	4	5
BC	1B2c	201	250	274	391	286	381	590	288	298	211	227	219	9	8	6	5	4	7	5	5

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A4bi	4903927	3059798	2548462	2118962	1377090	1462362	3202427	3931885	3120934	3092050	3003321	2017890	2136383	2565319	3206841	3162743	2961100	3088427	4125713	3912908	4040640	3662578	3863766	3652659	3905891	3772164	3669862	3635368	3602249	3661543
Pb	1B2aiv	1256698	943584	792057	907200	824500	853700	978200	777127	898703	1030789	1062899	1090308	972628	907200	1007843	1088894	1166238	1102294	1085289	1041352	1120464	1261191	1108229	1270548	1288534	753600	827100	848900	850977	877408
Cd	1A2d			15	1	14	30917	30535	32985	33350	30917	44938	41163	72729	124332	52697	51487	51680	42608	6502	5033	2019	1210	1632	1071	825	1152	937	2137	1292	1389
Cd	1A2gviii	16049	31460	12896	11992	96130	76100	76401	108912	75116	79347	86811	72910	99556	126050	78565	66606	90482	128027	84289	73338	91474	73349	89757	91787	96261	91964	120868	108555	111810	108139
Cd	1A4bi	362378	282470	301355	421848	483820	550227	1186126	1591341	1459480	1369094	1338101	953446	968216	1194709	1450426	1488022	1399973	1459997	1866281	1848508	1919908	1713927	1789044	1693816	1702052	1611209	1622679	1662535	1648340	1658820
Cd	2C1	2560333	1716145	1254713	1293830	1352892	1374990	1291481	1317417	1071802	661381	494539	517594	520582	557098	617677	681423	697187	699333	583337	327622	495226	527603	469505	373261	397475	402367	396276	436239	429577	392915
Cd	2C7a	477500	479800	482100	447500	395600	395600	561700	427900	328953	408411	281632	175289	159407	105595	57325	47700	49641	42065	30643
Hg	1A1a	1021579	909839	1004000	1037946	971631	999288	995478	817148	667258	674357	718836	728889	741081	864877	818229	772095	902666	906160	925486	798318	741068	902413	823440	622254	620866	632078	561756	575296	563274	516486
Hg	1A2a	766961	638363	456881	435916	480398	551039	480188	566695	492213	318343	311435	309544	363050	400894	473995	495466	487596	413097	374627	214764	258337	238145	175187	180087	174061	209091	214796	178227	174686	182164
Hg	1A2f	22404	5806	26578	20776	20927	23408	27484	22442	19003	17588	20004	21636	24433	17215	27016	25251	24652	23930	37291	35693	25950	13514	57663	42498	42900	45951	50984	50745	78796	77868
Hg	1A2gviii	208457	166826	36011	26902	53070	41686	41922	40870	27714	34021	24921	23609	33571	24871	25493	18112	25845	22070	25906	16907	17400	16614	16289	16637	17048	16024	16507	17036	17888	18642
Hg	2B10a	651518	477682	177000	168312	198547	214138	144874				682157	679094	611112	867893	968208	967104	1006838	860525	786110	387984	361008	600490	123638	768
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	4186947	3258106	2524484	2430708	2490445	2742931	2609316	2307953	2026639	1766018	2554819	2591489	2607331	3103206	3232045	3243331	3396402	3148838	3022213	2121498	2177481	2583194	1947529	1583960	1596670	1529190	1463267	1474860	1489237	1445814
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	4186947	3258106	2524484	2430708	2490445	2742931	2609316	2307953	2026639	1766018	2554819	2591489	2607331	3103206	3232045	3243331	3396402	3148838	3022213	2121498	2177481	2583194	1947529	1583960	1596670	1529190	1463267	1474860	1489237	1445814
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	4186947	3258106	2524484	2430708	2490445	2742931	2609316	2307953	2026639	1766018	2554819	2591489	2607331	3103206	3232045	3243331	3396402	3148838	3022213	2121498	2177481	2583194	1947529	1583960	1596670	1529190	1463267	1474860	1489237	1445814

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PCB	1A1c	0	4590	274212	2	165242	380972	521562	395763	455773	116792	128012	136853	93844	1701703	469545	42503	18022	6462	29412	20911	10541	10031	8841	1	1531	1531	2623	1387	281	0
PCB	1A2c	1185240	8161	874848	325912	1205	986361	843063	345489	725920	877031	1148012	1503482	1678581	1528813	1405222	1368670	1177420	971551	1060291	1042101	1038536	1038027	1043805	838110	743080	721492	341711	337879	388963	292392
PCB	1A5a	2070600	1716571	997446	77966	82894	240478	39120	12714	17925	133	134342	116270	43392	36751	156027	78669	12505	364	336	297	312	177	163	143	121	267	314	262	1	1