Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: RO Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NOx	1A1c	442	579	5650	6300	8563	8501	6809	13773	10712	7290	5708	6214	8992	8853	9844	9339	5929	5962	6262	3401	4060	3515	3211	3239	3937	2565	1875	3538	1341
NOx	1A2a	27603	22793	15853	17396	19457	20988	19855	20098	19449	14651	14396	12987	13872	14280	16812	18296	18826	12762	11116	7081	7354	6933	5542	5836	5749	6600	6470	5785	5660
NOx	1A2c	25976	14912	4305	5742	13267	15192	15069	11539	5822	5670	8778	12087	10431	9758	7641	7653	6987	6025	7024	5801	5560	6082	5256	4287	4131	3417	2670	3289	3471
NOx	1A2f	491	127	7762	6257	6220	6976	8039	6597	7021	5691	10238	11966	11481	6873	10408	8466	6145	5372	5900	3885	2721	4795	7265	6107	7410	8399	8590	8695	9270
NOx	1A2gvii			18729	8858	17106	14099	27099	18939	17790	10763	13086	15590	16529	12702	11103	11999	12667	19274	13708	7750	7166	8890	9991	8793	8665	10164	9771	9836	9868
NOx	1A2gviii	50925	52281	7452	3884	9865	9866	10120	9827	7812	8747	4839	4439	4731	4337	4904	3028	4046	4188	5211	2426	2702	2868	2596	2632	2586	2367	2472	2478	2591
NOx	1A3bii	2615	2403	2685	2486	3024	2821	3812	3710	3929	3639	3914	4594	4824	5392	4940	9140	9195	7342	9441	8864	8181	8496	10846	9635	8811	10394	11403	11936	12205
NMVOC	1A2gvii			17715	6093	5316	2250	14985	10473	16219	8636	11046	8743	22325	10934	9372	13344	9124	14196	8118	7198	5337	3689	2885	3450	3400	4064	3542	3641	3009
NMVOC	1A2gviii	7960	6984	1435	1175	3940	3184	3224	4017	2801	3157	2902	2557	3262	3728	2728	2190	2984	3685	2938	2274	2690	2282	2601	2665	2771	2630	3266	3027	3130
NMVOC	1A3bi	19670	16200	10584	9267	10566	8856	11948	12898	12634	10510	10637	14073	13769	14004	15591	29685	25304	21844	19283	17134	13849	12200	12320	11068	10891	9939	10102	9838	9107
NMVOC	2B10a	14772	9191	11519	10841	9624	12004	12100	7151	3917	6381	8740	8039	7893	11494	10606	14301	10009	10304	15334	8423	10143	11045	8769	6580	6919	4265	3604	4056	4749
NMVOC	2D3f	6958	6943	6936	6928	6919	6903	6882	6866	6856	6848	6843	6834	6488	6456	6415	6377	6339	6191	6132	6088	6060	6029	6006	5986	5963	5928	5893	5857	5822
NMVOC	2H2	6412	4489	3825	2695	12809	14657	16834	14619	13831	13496	14055	9900	10280	11030	10645	10083	11037	9347	9962	9184	7791	8967	9489	9844	9877	10897	10127	10225	6989
NMVOC	3B3	7710	6925	6342	5885	4939	5066	5211	4494	4558	3689	3016	2835	3204	3221	4070	4218	4355	4127	3836	3606	3401	3394	3344	3297	3214	3147	3010	2831	2519
SOx	1A2f	2552	662	1554	931	754	1117	1626	866	1032	752	1365	1560	1360	1040	2258	1918	1737	1962	3846	3560	2303	952	6147	4353	4532	4956	5477	5344	8358
NH3	3B3	55024	49564	45240	42083	35304	36217	37290	32155	32609	26416	21607	20263	22926	23097	29178	30155	31108	29572	27543	25888	24383	24290	23888	23567	22703	22217	21249	19962	17766
CO	1A2gvii			49265	17060	15330	6814	42208	29499	45135	24095	30786	24616	61750	30463	26121	37011	25517	39683	22820	20024	14913	10495	8354	9839	9696	11581	10137	10411	8685
CO	1A2gviii	19167	18007	3789	2468	8135	6682	6703	7639	5360	5892	5222	4518	6551	6750	4959	3826	5310	6656	5115	3967	4765	4007	4655	4741	4941	4706	5931	5437	5621
CO	1A3bi	165574	136367	88917	77823	88772	74374	100235	108322	106089	88288	89315	118139	115374	117208	128327	271702	230419	195291	169583	152682	125332	110008	110907	100950	100564	92507	94234	91998	85399

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
BC	1A2d	147	139	230	385	168	160	158	134	20	15	6	4	5	3	3	4	3	7	4
BC	1B2c	201	250	274	391	286	381	590	288	298	211	227	219	9	8	6	5	4	7	5

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A4bi	4903927	3059798	2548462	2118962	1377090	1462362	3202427	3931885	3120934	3092050	3003321	2017890	2136383	2565319	3206841	3162743	2961100	3088427	4125713	3912908	4040640	3662578	3863766	3652659	3905891	3772164	3669862	3635368	3602249
Cd	1A2d			15	1	14	30917	30535	32985	33350	30917	44938	41163	72729	124332	52697	51487	51680	42608	6502	5033	2019	1210	1632	1071	825	1152	937	2137	1292
Cd	1A2gviii	16049	31460	12896	11992	96130	76100	76401	108912	75116	79347	86811	72910	99556	126050	78565	66606	90482	128027	84289	73338	91474	73349	89757	91787	96261	91964	120868	108555	111810
Cd	1A4bi	362378	282470	301355	421848	483820	550227	1186126	1591341	1459480	1369094	1338101	953446	968216	1194709	1450426	1488022	1399973	1459997	1866281	1848508	1919908	1713927	1789044	1693816	1702052	1611209	1622679	1662535	1648340
Cd	2C1	2560333	1716145	1254713	1293830	1352892	1374990	1291481	1317417	1071802	661381	494539	517594	520582	557098	617677	681423	697187	699333	583337	327622	495226	527603	469505	373261	397475	402367	396276	436239	429577
Hg	1A1a	1021579	909839	1004000	1037946	971631	999288	995478	817148	667258	674357	718836	728889	741081	864877	818229	772095	902666	906160	925486	798318	741068	902413	823440	622254	620866	632078	561756	575296	563274
Hg	1A2a	766961	638363	456881	435916	480398	551039	480188	566695	492213	318343	311435	309544	363050	400894	473995	495466	487596	413097	374627	214764	258337	238145	175187	180087	174061	209091	214796	178227	174686
Hg	1A2f	22404	5806	26578	20776	20927	23408	27484	22442	19003	17588	20004	21636	24433	17215	27016	25251	24652	23930	37291	35693	25950	13514	57663	42498	42900	45951	50984	50745	78796
Hg	1A2gviii	208457	166826	36011	26902	53070	41686	41922	40870	27714	34021	24921	23609	33571	24871	25493	18112	25845	22070	25906	16907	17400	16614	16289	16637	17048	16024	16507	17036	17888
Hg	2B10a	651518	477682	177000	168312	198547	214138	144874				682157	679094	611112	867893	968208	967104	1006838	860525	786110	387984	361008	600490	123638	768
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	4030340	3125823	2412887	2299434	2381078	2631359	2460152	2197220	1884771	1574415	2351409	2381383	2429778	2928976	3044909	3051922	3192502	2963376	2843502	1946345	1979493	2355622	1750014	1351068	1361205	1410266	1333623	1341983	1351976
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	4030340	3125823	2412887	2299434	2381078	2631359	2460152	2197220	1884771	1574415	2351409	2381383	2429778	2928976	3044909	3051922	3192502	2963376	2843502	1946345	1979493	2355622	1750014	1351068	1361205	1410266	1333623	1341983	1351976
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	4030340	3125823	2412887	2299434	2381078	2631359	2460152	2197220	1884771	1574415	2351409	2381383	2429778	2928976	3044909	3051922	3192502	2963376	2843502	1946345	1979493	2355622	1750014	1351068	1361205	1410266	1333623	1341983	1351976

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
PCB	1A1c	0	4590	274212	2	165242	380972	521562	395763	455773	116792	128012	136853	93844	1701703	469545	42503	18022	6462	29412	20911	10541	10031	8841	1	1531	1531	2623	1387	281
PCB	1A2c	1185240	8161	874848	325912	1205	986361	843063	345489	725920	877031	1148012	1503482	1678581	1528813	1405222	1368670	1177420	971551	1060291	1042101	1038536	1038027	1043805	838110	743080	721492	341711	337879	388963
PCB	1A5a	2070600	1716571	997446	77966	82894	240478	39120	12714	17925	133	134342	116270	43392	36751	156027	78669	12505	364	336	297	312	177	163	143	121	267	314	262	1