Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: RO Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
NOx	1A2c						15192	15069	11539	5822	5670	8778	12087	10431	9758	7641	7653	6987	6025	7024	5801	5560	6082	5256	4287	4131	3417	2670	3289
NOx	1A2f						6976	8039	6597	7021	5691	10238	11966	11481	6873	10408	8466	6145	5372	5900	3885	2721	4795	7265	6107	7410	8399	8590	8695
NOx	1A3bi						10840	12611	13049	12837	10508	10840	14463	14728	15040	15956	34199	31343	28827	27843	27507	24863	23455	27107	24089	25363	24546	26210	28270
NOx	1A3c						14620	14986	14934	12890	10532	15039	7493	10061	8908	10218	3773	3720	9432	8803	6602	7493	10113	9537	8436	5607	5816	5659	5967
SOx	1A2f						1117	1626	866	1032	752	1365	1560	1360	1040	2258	1918	1737	1962	3846	3560	2303	952	6147	4353	4532	4956	5477	5344
CO	1A3bi						89315	100235	108322	106089	88288	89315	118139	115369	117194	128169	271702	230419	195291	169583	152682	125332	110008	110907	100950	100564	92507	94234	91998
CO	2C3						16872	16828	19644	20965	20889	20793	21578	22391	23766	25831	28620	32023	31509	37494	24172	24902	26880	24304	23703	23495	24762	24909	24811

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
BC	1A2d	147	139	230	385	168	160	158	134	20	15	6	4	5	3	3	4	3	7
BC	1B2c	201	250	274	391	286	381	590	288	298	211	227	219	9	8	6	5	4	7

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Cd	1A2d						30917	30535	32985	33350	30917	44938	41163	72729	124332	52697	51487	51680	42608	6502	5033	2019	1210	1632	1071	825	1152	937	2137
Cd	1A4bi						550227	1186126	1591341	1459480	1369094	1338101	953446	968216	1194709	1450426	1488022	1399973	1459997	1866281	1848508	1919908	1713927	1789044	1693816	1702052	1611209	1622679	1662535
Cd	2C1						600590	541881	569417	534383	402109	494539	517594	520582	557098	617677	681423	697187	699333	583337	327622	495226	527603	469505	373261	397475	402367	396276	436239
Hg	1A1a						999288	995478	817148	667258	674357	718836	728889	741081	864877	818229	772095	902666	906160	925486	798318	741068	902413	823440	622254	620866	632078	561756	575296
Hg	1A1c						23196	28725	28348	28377	9824	10221	11308	10583	84252	27490	7812	4778	3409	4802	3290	3202	2824	2675	2341	2767	1822	1993	2213
Hg	1A2a						551039	480188	566695	492213	318343	311435	309544	363050	400894	473995	495466	487596	413097	374627	214764	258337	238145	175187	180087	174061	209091	214796	178227
Hg	1A2f						23408	27484	22442	19003	17588	20004	21636	24433	17215	27016	25251	24652	23930	37291	35693	25950	13514	57663	42498	42900	45951	50984	50745

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL						130872	166194	195210	177298	149868	148972	126925	136437	153767	173479	183903	248817	174665	191504	158686	184238	194582	204743	172402	159060	157702	167548	189764
DIOX	NTCOMPLIANCE						130872	166194	195210	177298	149868	148972	126925	136437	153767	173479	183903	248817	174665	191504	158686	184238	194582	204743	172402	159060	157702	167548	189764
PCB	1A1c						380972	521562	395763	455773	116792	128012	136853	93844	1701703	469545	42503	18022	6462	29412	20911	10541	10031	8841	1	1531	1531	2623	1387
PCB	1A2c						986361	843063	345489	725920	877031	1148012	1503482	1678581	1528813	1405222	1368670	1177420	971551	1060291	1042101	1038536	1038027	1043805	838110	743080	721492	341711	337879
PCB	1A2f						127504	206893	88063	102857	73272	110164	118516	97922	103193	277103	245511	251282	300947	647092	626547	406250	111633	1065027	739853	752029	816267	913862	888260