Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA for CLRTAP

KCA for NECD

Inv. comparison

Time series

Trend graphs

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TIME SERIES

Party: RO      Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
SOx	1A2gviii											9634	11719	13269	10815	2085	10550	9538	8918	10802	9861	8929	7497	13332	10392	9920	10255	8738
CO	1A2gviii											20653	22844	27099	27842	13130	21379	20926	21689	20633	18547	18523	16348	23249	20156	19446	19171	18532

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A2gviii											1372303	1592767	1947135	1867467	302294	1573749	1497427	1421976	1594557	1565497	1489478	1181969	2078806	1685469	1587029	1593645	1411666
Cd	1A2gviii											156804	143684	197877	277067	143616	151335	175101	206116	131869	133377	153497	127544	166732	168383	160361	151552	172751
Cd	1A4bi											1338107	953448	968216	1194711	1450427	1488022	1399972	1459997	1866281	1848508	1919908	1713927	1789044	1693816	1702052	1611209	1622680
Cd	2C1											494539	517594	520582	557098	617677	681423	697187	699333	583337	327622	495226	527603	469505	373261	397475	402367	396276
Hg	1A1a											718836	728889	741081	864877	818229	820629	916993	921052	945157	816966	766534	902409	729863	622254	620867	632078	618643
Hg	1A1c											10221	11308	10583	84252	27490	7812	4778	3409	4802	3290	3202	2824	2675	2341	2767	1822	1994
Hg	1A2a											311523	309693	363065	400915	474006	495492	487622	413113	374632	214770	258342	238155	175192	180097	174081	209096	198105
Hg	1A2gviii											146786	173609	200148	187651	89672	164514	149139	140390	165505	143993	138514	125810	169222	139549	135263	131218	116239
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL											1798859	1842037	1916430	2164468	2097880	2234005	2308811	2209312	2163983	1660962	1727375	1836640	1611957	1426367	1437922	1486889	1445131

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL											143516	122133	131285	149489	166900	181668	246328	173091	185479	155225	178390	184996	191689	167462	154150	155704	154925
HCB	1A2gviii											59576	54366	75077	105711	55095	57377	66600	78593	49864	50508	58318	48458	63074	63942	60897	57490	65769
PCB	1A1c											128012	136853	93844	1701703	469545	42503	18022	6462	29412	20911	10541	10031	8841	1	1531	1531	2623
PCB	1A2gviii											1360825	1683069	1998993	1682325	661	1639417	1475995	1293057	1719563	1679283	1525873	1194099	2258258	1740981	1634019	1666277	1371436