Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA for CLRTAP

KCA for NECD

Inv. comparison

Time series

Trend graphs

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TIME SERIES

Party: RO      Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	300000	267000	255000	223000	221000	217000	214000	211000	196000	210000	206000	164000	156000	182000	191000	204424	202376	198146	194488	183559	168098	166440	166185	165000	162413	162927

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
PM2.5	1A1c						3673	3933	3618	2505	750	4
PM10	1A1c						5276	5649	5197	3598	1077	6
BC	1A1a						52	42	18	57	95	11	12	1010	5	3	8
BC	1A4ai						500	429	484	386	266	75	237	229	187	176	278

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Cd	1A1c																106864	114411	105255	72871	21811	124
Cd	2C1																681423	697187	699333	583337	327622	495226	527603	469505	373261	397475	402367
Cd	2C6																136308	104892	140237	148747	900	540	610	785	523	211	478
Hg	1A1a																817324	913792	918340	941817	812437	761747	897958	725144	575399	601070	615356
Hg	1A1c																2003695	2145204	1973540	1366327	408960	2318
Hg	2C1																402992	408395	409275	336687	187691	272184	286176	255275	211707	223493	230936
Hg	2C6																283975	218525	292160	309890	1875	1125	1270	1635	1090	440	995
Hg	5C1biii																582699	50869	146372	211689	243571	234847	220669	249873	255463	288272	316136

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
DIOX	1A1a															45820	2911	3247	3210	3721	3600	2654	3125	2526	2007	2090	2180
DIOX	2C1																58672	58842	58909	47713	26371	36374	37585	33638	29401	30716	32517
PCB	2C6																51115500	39334500	52588800	55780200	337500	202500	228600	294300	196200	79200	179100
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	134651000														1392000	181912629	159195505	181404004	172983473	43701656	51877868	41825398	30973425	28535535	28904590	30949181