Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA for CLRTAP

KCA for NECD

Inv. comparison

Time series

Trend graphs

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TIME SERIES

Party: RO      Submission year: 2014

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2012
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2012
PMs: 2000 - 2012

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
CO	1A1c																35064	37541	69074	23911	7157	41

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
PM2.5	1A1c						2538	2717	5000	1731	518	3
PM10	1A1c						3272	3504	6447	2232	668	4
TSP	1A1c						5410	5792	10657	3689	1104	6

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Pb	1A1c																1883000	2016000	3710000	1284348	384422	2000
Pb	2C5b																9134000	7574000	9189000	8994960	2258620	2927000	1754000	381680
Cd	1A1a																699000	752104	744000	738581	632373	606000	705000	575948
Cd	1A1c																104000	112000	205000	71049	21266	120
Cd	1A3dii																404000	394000	827000	699030	471590	581000	510000	420000
Cd	2C1																681000	697000	700000	583337	327622	495000	528000	469505
Cd	2C5d																142000	109000	146000	154945	938	560	600	818
Hg	1A1a																982000	1098470	1105000	1115936	947261	917000	1081000	873010
Hg	1A1c																1957000	2095000	3855000	1334446	399418	2000
Hg	1A2fi																763000	853000	932000	963000	744000	664000	711000	771659
Hg	1A3dii																2022000	1970000	3133000	3495150	2357950	2904000	2550000	2100000