Technical Annual Status Report (Stage 2) for the CLRTAP Inventory Review: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: PT Submission year: 2024

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden changes in time series data reported by countries. The analysis was limited to data provided in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format. Only data reported for at least three years were considered. Years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors were available have been converted to NFR14/NFR19. Only the converted sectors are in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) is more than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals in the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. more than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2022
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2022
PMs: 2000 - 2022

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number.

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
NOx	1A3ai(ii)	5854	5638	5979	5752	5779	5974	5952	6034	6517	7349	7555	7425	7053	7809	8525	8825	9266	9661	9982	9098	10083	10418	10448	10742	14701	11770	12571	14379	15476	16438	5768	7464	16037
NMVOC	11C	483913	498449	512700	527135	542070	498720	500938	502853	504770	507736	509704	511711	513667	515655	517698	519795	521586	523340	523859	524315	524754	524966	525489	525942	526425	526936	527577	528165	528792	530748	531311	531311	531311
NMVOC	2D3a	13307	13801	14226	14101	14262	14540	14989	15572	16237	16768	17270	17498	17548	17338	17612	17720	17973	18387	18429	17836	18147	17891	17255	18691	20728	22765	15757	15950	18718	21038	29407	22296	22965
NMVOC	2H1	4123	4569	4572	4425	4562	4776	4679	5032	5081	5253	5430	5521	5852	5853	5899	6072	6253	6352	6206	6309	6685	7062	8523	8778	13258	7869	7979	7964	7984	8025	7860	8367	8469
SOx	1A2f	8040	7614	7759	7473	7964	8625	8900	11844	12355	10853	10081	9120	8041	5635	8040	7232	5785	6714	6893	7166	6812	6094	5570	5390	5701	5636	5696	5732	5793	5806	5466	5162	5458

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
PM2.5	1A1a	1821	1885	2546	1687	1413	2047	1353	1139	1123	1012	1276	1347	1275	1207	1257	1262	1221	1246	1293	1274	1226	1131	1216
PM2.5	1A3ai(i)	744	708	702	729	766	791	854	928	910	841	881	914	981	923	995	1073	1172	1312	1396	1420	535	657	859
PM2.5	2B10a	2306	2415	2431	2219	2995	2400	1979	1915	1781	1310	2112	2389	2571	2313	2461	2105	1994	2054	2087	2220	2686	2700	2238
PM10	2B10a	2439	2542	2526	2321	3103	2511	2060	2022	1876	1332	2123	2402	2586	2327	2478	2133	2032	2104	2130	2272	2745	2762	2307
TSP	2B10a	3356	3311	3273	3025	4001	3260	2701	2681	2463	1748	2721	3068	3286	2942	3139	2714	2584	2681	2717	2894	3466	3495	2936
TSP	2D3b	5519	8195	7107	5723	6396	7731	5765	5140	5303	5640	3997	4311	3461	2732	1853	2465	2766	3249	2553	2614	2989	3602	2585
BC	1A3ai(i)	357	340	337	350	368	380	410	445	437	404	423	439	471	443	477	515	563	630	670	682	257	315	413
BC	NATIONALTOTAL	9601	9155	8882	8611	8561	8407	8240	8053	7742	7527	7401	7033	6594	6373	6290	6336	6221	6223	6098	5970	4983	5150	5185
BC	NTCOMPL(NECD)	9103	8780	8529	8254	8174	7992	7810	7664	7355	7134	7031	6676	6257	6057	5982	6018	5886	5875	5755	5628	4740	4873	4902
BC	NTCOMPLIANCE	9103	8780	8529	8254	8174	7992	7810	7664	7355	7134	7031	6676	6257	6057	5982	6018	5886	5875	5755	5628	4740	4873	4902

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Pb	1A1a	1023566	1083974	1252493	1134982	1065164	1247675	994908	1042931	1109396	1341034	1238656	1228573	1418062	1198649	1205454	1358218	1211057	1015289	935443	1055272	735509	900527	1100950	1019017	1037239	1213856	1077205	1189117	1060476	628567	410874	292766	238438
Pb	1A2f	1775567	1720427	1835385	1877063	1798684	1974297	1978586	2200634	2093359	2305898	2309796	2254709	2441139	2318632	2478833	2478828	2534003	2536295	2406651	2234054	2177656	1724067	1691286	1939766	1899831	1735779	1475398	1560210	1475969	1471538	1691875	1605396	1744449
Pb	1A3ai(i)	1046748	968489	862639	670077	793383	1058574	851939	1037742	1064778	1086178	1301299	1274267	1290594	1098040	1021484	1212346	1204863	1153645	1260929	1260918	1586643	1248827	701588	645801	737372	695289	694779	670070	444869	609048	593117	654160	888911
Pb	1A3bi	492695427	550650732	623750875	664237620	692067429	719572017	279375542	282948121	295758142	300032987	13511792	12915309	13483363	13069898	12578852	11799004	10906339	10164828	9537401	9356266	8860871	7968895	7239935	6947892	6940965	6625925	6403587	6453696	6375722	6574910	5439918	5773237	6268436
Pb	1A3bii	19013533	19013581	18322975	17072443	15968435	14912480	5168192	4701097	4390338	3972682	161155	139376	132709	124405	106781	90479	75181	64640	55704	51081	44621	38191	32307	29496	28143	25458	22947	21592	19829	18406	14600	14955	15506
Pb	1A3biv	41598761	39354266	37123458	34622492	32131280	30230198	10772653	10201877	10058262	9621496	407392	344304	379756	380026	379003	372285	361316	355279	334546	331785	335403	311845	299297	301545	307962	314355	337432	377966	382859	407766	372565	440199	491430
Pb	1A3bvi	1259248	1331078	1428677	1496643	1605888	1678074	1795892	1884154	1988935	2072760	2302884	2315869	2345057	2300163	2279842	2200994	2204015	2178708	2144080	2179484	2199089	2007526	1846991	1793024	1832629	1795593	1824986	1808448	1828684	1884451	1601732	1739563	1852006
Pb	1A4bi	1452800	1387238	1340427	1310760	1296909	1297793	1301563	1265592	1229626	1193662	1157695	1121722	1085755	1049786	1013821	977857	941885	905922	869962	834009	798063	851346	851745	871556	866816	862640	864379	864376	864380	860275	879664	883181	883175
Pb	2C1	3614236	2778273	4079297	4037495	4119053	4312111	4456123	4609543	4407657	4638261	4972763	3244330	2773583	3014764	3757000	4058983	4469400	4817800	5244200	4196400	4011641	5050120	5093594	5195225	5337083	5240646	5162154	5144041	5860697	5285398	5727097	5077920	4822646
Hg	1A1a	153461	162545	176522	173827	173060	200415	172369	179400	175671	228835	227313	217916	244460	222186	226159	242293	229254	192995	178844	201253	135975	171411	206059	193143	193783	230999	207222	229053	200371	119896	77815	59321	44651
Hg	1A2d	48966	54438	57286	55918	54411	55952	55053	60090	59745	61709	64467	59086	59153	53336	61018	60701	63272	63331	61287	60872	65956	66145	67427	69715	69355	69335	71766	72482	72301	72159	71415	75720	82040
Hg	1A3ai(ii)	3977	4018	4269	4049	4063	4240	4203	4339	4558	5044	4986	4875	4607	5103	5518	5732	6051	6363	6632	6018	6659	6906	6912	7167	7600	7925	8475	9678	1010411	2011086	3003956	4005146	5010929
Hg	1A3aii(ii)	290	317	334	311	344	374	374	388	449	497	584	612	652	625	697	717	709	692	651	725	751	694	696	630	644	696	847	957	1000944	2000948	3000476	4000665	5000836
Hg	1B2d	1760	2200	2200	1760	14520	18480	21560	22440	25520	35200	35023	46327	42116	39103	36947	31094	36891	78109	74923	71158	76363	81677	58998	76677	80463	80099	67069	84923	89835	84268	85003	69852	76094
Hg	5C1biii	647491	647491	647491	647491	647491	647491	723287	841987	633660	559339	381270	173505	152562	125853	95595	1960	1052	4496	5216	5167	6116	2996	2057	1830	1398	1014	1962	2021	8420	9324	14367	13382	13518
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1221816	1229984	1254123	1250087	1316752	1407817	1447603	1612309	1405452	1407489	1230791	1035613	1038363	997885	1006336	917723	902523	920646	875501	837291	791457	817948	823366	817241	806835	856433	806456	861888	834078	765120	717311	720348	651228
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1210648	1218645	1242596	1238577	1304411	1395422	1435469	1600408	1392953	1395043	1217574	1022070	1023927	981210	988624	899596	884311	902929	857734	819485	773916	800640	806396	800813	790703	839716	789215	843666	816308	746933	699991	702703	633641
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	1210648	1218645	1242596	1238577	1304411	1395422	1435469	1600408	1392953	1395043	1217574	1022070	1023927	981210	988624	899596	884311	902929	857734	819485	773916	800640	806396	800813	790703	839716	789215	843666	816308	746933	699991	702703	633641

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
DIOX	2C1	4209	3386	4775	4695	4798	4968	5124	5264	5000	5290	5713	3844	3200	3479	4335	4683	5157	5559	6051	4842	4629	5827	5877	5994	6158	6047	5956	5935	6762	6099	6608	5859	5565
HCB	3Df	1608183	1608183	1608183	1608183	1608183	1608183	214424	214424	214424	214424	214424	214424	214424	214424	214424	214424	214424	214424	214424	214424	214456	214456	214456	285600	393268	454840	665965	649028	760947	1092578	105	378
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	60447286	62381688	64233476	63099181	61938015	75672124	84202904	83691061	92802923	88681084	100769326	76617579	102731762	1744405	1710689	1667669	1604463	1652593	1613691	1664430	1388470	1366755	1495924	1466363	1562373	1756227	1912801	2016869	2387184	2387219	1417945	1273181	1224053
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	60390659	62325431	64176807	63042039	61881245	75614608	84190181	83678314	92790091	88668459	100755165	76602549	102716561	1725558	1691174	1648430	1585239	1633142	1594472	1645914	1371501	1349883	1478480	1448407	1540592	1732509	1879849	1983673	2350362	2342532	1408179	1263262	1215570
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	60390659	62325431	64176807	63042039	61881245	75614608	84190181	83678314	92790091	88668459	100755165	76602549	102716561	1725558	1691174	1648430	1585239	1633142	1594472	1645914	1371501	1349883	1478480	1448407	1540592	1732509	1879849	1983673	2350362	2342532	1408179	1263262	1215570
PCB	2K	998320000	959856647	920930875	899587455	888415345	787141872	778150821	775506394	713428357	709065290	708115765	676996038	635569217	598598517	559006179	541634621	513547676	439456250	364817899	343211460	263657418	184103376	176049506	81997169	43947809	31391292	21668157	21270307	20510687	15601643	15952967	17187350	14215337
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	1061221379	1023663905	987136899	967308181	957772418	858351332	851195960	850430160	789974087	787619024	794351601	769664629	735299592	724742307	686586009	670206322	643267943	570307642	496854399	424316317	322765799	251167036	261869900	140047465	105442840	86014922	84167631	95881010	92070861	89559315	86688134	78245290	73017549
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1012581492	976785678	942147559	923372877	914331671	819843920	813146207	812548911	755119341	752993909	759762539	736592482	704238636	695479024	659233269	643714636	618142620	548792954	478971946	407482732	309811146	242088326	253186449	135937808	103192152	84346680	83003354	94738975	90962870	88695777	85818072	77315575	72226605
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	1012581492	976785678	942147559	923372877	914331671	819843920	813146207	812548911	755119341	752993909	759762539	736592482	704238636	695479024	659233269	643714636	618142620	548792954	478971946	407482732	309811146	242088326	253186449	135937808	103192152	84346680	83003354	94738975	90962870	88695777	85818072	77315575	72226605