Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: PT Submission year: 2023

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2021
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2021
PMs: 2000 - 2021

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
NOx	1A3ai(ii)	5854	5638	5979	5752	5779	5974	5952	6034	6517	7349	7555	7425	7053	7809	8525	8825	9266	9661	9982	9098	10083	10418	10448	10742	14701	11770	12571	14379	15476	16438	5768	7464
NOx	3Da1	6340	6340	6340	6340	6340	5833	6729	6572	5972	5958	6800	6300	6556	5656	7154	4107	3496	4520	4205	3892	4010	3804	4275	4426	5266	4716	4338	4103	4055	4296	4127	3653
NMVOC	11C	483913	498449	512700	527135	542070	498720	500938	502853	504770	507736	509704	511711	513667	515655	517698	519795	521586	523340	523859	524315	524754	524966	525489	525942	526425	526936	527577	528165	528792	530748	531311	531311
NMVOC	2D3a	11163	11126	11131	11153	11191	11231	11276	11331	11390	11460	11552	11623	11679	11711	11735	11754	11777	11801	11811	10082	9216	8326	7424	6528	6907	7295	7259	7529	8196	7402	27019	20956
NMVOC	2H1	4123	4569	4572	4425	4562	4776	4679	5032	5081	5253	5430	5521	5852	5853	5899	6072	6253	6352	6206	6309	6685	7062	8523	8778	13258	7869	7979	7964	7984	8025	7860	8367
NH3	1A2d	1130	1261	1323	1289	1234	1280	1255	1384	1375	1428	1479	1393	1382	1246	1446	1442	1509	1510	1453	1446	1577	1587	1670	1689	1684	1674	1733	1746	1745	1743	1720	1859

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
PM2.5	1A3ai(i)	744	708	702	729	766	791	854	928	910	841	881	914	981	923	995	1073	1172	1312	1396	1420	535	657
PM2.5	2B10a	2306	2415	2431	2219	2995	2400	1979	1915	1781	1310	2112	2389	2571	2313	2461	2105	1994	2054	2087	2220	2686	2700
PM10	2B10a	2439	2542	2526	2321	3103	2511	2060	2022	1876	1332	2123	2402	2586	2327	2478	2133	2032	2104	2130	2272	2745	2762
TSP	2B10a	3356	3311	3273	3025	4001	3260	2701	2681	2463	1749	2722	3069	3287	2943	3141	2715	2584	2681	2717	2894	3466	3495
TSP	2D3b	5519	8195	7107	5723	6396	7731	5765	5140	5303	5640	3997	4311	3461	2732	1853	2465	2766	3249	2553	2614	2989	3602
BC	1A3ai(i)	357	340	337	350	368	380	410	445	437	404	423	439	471	443	477	515	563	630	670	682	257	315
BC	1A3aii(i)	170	178	180	172	198	205	201	205	183	218	203	186	192	171	171	182	224	248	251	245	135	170

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Pb	1A1a	1023685	1084041	1252601	1141165	1085187	1276580	1023727	1080344	1147709	1403272	1278341	1256419	1431791	1202593	1239093	1394392	1241699	1015315	935455	1055319	735560	900538	1100958	1019022	1037239	1213856	1077205	1189117	1060476	628567	410874	295851
Pb	1A3ai(i)	1046748	968489	862639	670077	793383	1058574	851939	1037742	1064778	1086178	1301299	1274267	1290594	1098040	1021484	1212346	1204863	1153645	1260929	1260918	1586643	1248827	701588	645801	737372	695289	694779	670070	444869	609048	593117	654160
Pb	1A3bi	492695427	550650732	623750875	664237620	692067429	719572017	279375542	282948121	295758142	300032987	13511792	12915309	13483363	13069898	12578852	11799004	10906339	10164828	9537401	9356266	8860871	7968895	7239935	6947892	6940965	6625925	6403587	6453696	6365434	6551951	5407970	5842660
Pb	1A3bii	19013533	19013581	18322975	17072443	15968435	14912480	5168192	4701097	4390338	3972682	161155	139376	132709	124405	106781	90479	75181	64640	55704	51081	44621	38191	32307	29496	28143	25458	22947	21592	19795	18475	14719	14993
Pb	1A3biv	41598761	39354266	37123458	34622492	32131280	30230198	10772653	10201877	10058262	9621496	407392	344304	379756	380026	379003	372285	361316	355279	334546	331785	335403	311845	299297	301545	307962	314355	337432	377966	387831	418183	382734	422365
Pb	1A3bvi	1259248	1331078	1428677	1496643	1605888	1678074	1795892	1884154	1988935	2072760	2302884	2315869	2345057	2300163	2279842	2200994	2204015	2178708	2144080	2179484	2199089	2007526	1846991	1793024	1832629	1795593	1824986	1808448	1828432	1884145	1601546	1739751
Pb	1A4bi	1452800	1387238	1340427	1310760	1296909	1297793	1301563	1265592	1229626	1193662	1157695	1121722	1085755	1049786	1013821	977857	941885	905922	869962	834009	798063	851346	851745	871556	866816	862640	864379	864376	864380	860276	879664	883181
Pb	2C1	3614236	2778273	4079297	4037495	4119053	4312111	4456123	4609543	4407657	4638261	4972763	3244330	2773583	3014764	3757000	4058983	4469400	4817800	5244200	4196400	4011641	5050120	5093594	5195225	5337083	5240646	5162154	5144041	5860697	5285398	5727097	5077920
Cd	1A2gviii	293578	262707	247473	232682	246899	247615	305161	346280	339577	291546	285195	225501	226786	197234	185378	190451	185417	167540	125861	126753	123770	97930	43145	27774	25475	27909	20669	18500	18087	18674	17562	21460
Hg	1A2d	334450	362336	385296	388364	407192	393330	389289	403297	402468	412985	430538	383852	377534	343488	392641	377366	394228	395562	394757	407153	413359	412079	422287	417274	416610	428061	445230	437433	438398	449250	443620	448944
Hg	1A3ai(ii)	3977	4018	4269	4049	4063	4240	4203	4339	4558	5044	4986	4875	4607	5103	5518	5732	6051	6363	6632	6018	6659	6906	6912	7167	7600	7925	8475	9678	1010411	2011086	3003956	4005146
Hg	1A3aii(ii)	290	317	334	311	344	374	374	388	449	497	584	612	652	625	697	717	709	692	651	725	751	694	696	630	644	696	847	957	1000944	2000948	3000476	4000665
Hg	5C1biii	647491	647491	647491	647491	647491	647491	723287	841987	633660	559339	381270	173505	152562	125853	95595	1960	1052	4496	5216	5167	6116	2996	2057	1830	1398	1014	1962	2021	8420	9324	14367	13382

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
DIOX	2C1	4209	3386	4775	4695	4798	4968	5124	5264	5000	5290	5713	3844	3200	3479	4335	4683	5157	5559	6051	4842	4629	5827	5877	5994	6158	6047	5956	5935	6762	6099	6608	5859
HCB	3Df	1608183	1608183	1608183	1608183	1608183	1608183	214424	214424	214424	214424	214424	214424	214424	214424	214424	214424	214424	214424	214424	214424	214456	214456	214456	285600	393268	454840	665965	649028	760947	1092578	105	378
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	60448288	62381239	64233495	63099131	61936758	75672208	84202550	83687698	92796448	88673278	100760216	76605784	102721095	1736246	1703939	1660858	1598770	1645886	1608015	1660669	1384865	1360771	1489853	1461752	1557757	1749894	1907414	2007762	2380062	2383358	1413902	1270748
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	60391551	62325071	64176938	63042089	61880183	75614900	84190015	83675086	92783761	88660783	100746201	76590899	102706051	1717560	1684615	1641785	1579717	1626604	1588974	1642335	1368072	1344075	1472581	1443980	1536152	1726402	1874590	1974683	2343394	2338820	1404262	1261032
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	60391551	62325071	64176938	63042089	61880183	75614900	84190015	83675086	92783761	88660783	100746201	76590899	102706051	1717560	1684615	1641785	1579717	1626604	1588974	1642335	1368072	1344075	1472581	1443980	1536152	1726402	1874590	1974683	2343394	2338820	1404262	1261032
PCB	2K	998320000	959856647	920930875	899587455	888415345	787141872	778150821	775506394	713428357	709065290	708115765	676996038	635569217	598598517	559006179	541634621	513547676	439456250	364817899	343211460	263657418	184103376	176049506	81997169	43947809	31391292	21668157	21270307	20510687	15601643	15952967	17187350
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	1063885472	1025985511	989201083	969118745	959248417	859527940	852066996	850978731	790162989	787452168	794461469	769487854	735146855	724606787	686446068	670083224	643143094	570162044	496684436	424155922	322625357	251025989	261752286	139918511	105317157	85855448	84048905	95756172	91948844	89439714	86580364	78138489
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1015243558	979217404	944329361	925286840	915960775	821174070	814151090	813192329	755400974	752902699	759957021	736499037	704176611	695437356	659205240	643689024	618117392	548746139	478905622	407429071	309774271	242050764	253169387	135917334	103170209	84320306	82985271	94714827	90944427	88674404	85797420	77295184
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	1015243558	979217404	944329361	925286840	915960775	821174070	814151090	813192329	755400974	752902699	759957021	736499037	704176611	695437356	659205240	643689024	618117392	548746139	478905622	407429071	309774271	242050764	253169387	135917334	103170209	84320306	82985271	94714827	90944427	88674404	85797420	77295184