Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: PT Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
NOx	1A4ciii	8478	8681	7667	6885	7800	6333	5802	5372	5395	5215	7582	7686	5611	4307	5071	4174	4336	3593	3490	4256	4335	3740	3658	3712	3007	2645	2673	2489	2499	2745	3051
NOx	3Da1	6340	6340	6340	6340	6340	5833	6729	6572	5972	5958	6800	6300	6556	5656	7154	4107	3496	4520	4205	3892	4010	3804	4275	4426	5266	4716	4338	4103	4055	4220	4213
NMVOC	11C	483913	498449	512700	527135	542070	498720	500938	502853	504770	507736	509704	511711	513667	515655	517698	519795	521586	523340	523859	524315	524754	524966	525489	525942	526425	526936	527577	528165	528792	530748	531311
NMVOC	2H1	4123	4569	4572	4425	4562	4776	4679	5032	5081	5253	5430	5521	5852	5853	5899	6072	6253	6352	6206	6309	6685	7062	8523	8778	13258	7869	7979	7964	7984	8028	7870
NH3	1A2d	1130	1261	1323	1289	1234	1280	1255	1384	1375	1428	1479	1393	1382	1246	1446	1442	1509	1510	1453	1446	1577	1587	1670	1689	1684	1674	1733	1746	1745	1743	1718
NH3	2B10a	5422	5605	5780	5104	4824	4232	5215	5365	5102	5009	5771	4935	4959	4983	5622	5389	4260	5207	4070	2712	3526	4316	3642	3143	3458	3283	3294	3271	3109	3354	3725

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
PM2.5	2B10a	7648	6753	7018	6859	8016	7360	5882	6657	5439	3962	5526	6673	5895	5084	5606	5128	4998	4874	4759	5060	5936
PM10	2B10a	7795	6890	7125	6972	8136	7484	5971	6775	5543	3989	5546	6697	5919	5105	5631	5165	5045	4932	4809	5119	6004
TSP	2B10a	14233	13343	13642	13403	14880	14131	12494	13534	12158	10195	12106	13315	12249	11269	11912	11451	11424	11506	11535	12057	12565
TSP	2D3b	5519	8195	7107	5723	6396	7731	5765	5140	5303	5640	3997	4311	3461	2732	1853	2465	2766	3249	2553	2614	2989
TSP	2I	3598	3899	3675	3652	3684	4100	4106	4191	1005	728	3114	2931	5061	4826	10022	3909	4322	3979	3883	3892	3647

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Pb	1A1a	1023685	1084041	1252601	1141165	1085187	1276580	1023727	1080344	1147709	1403272	1278341	1256419	1431791	1202593	1239093	1394392	1241699	1015315	935455	1055319	735560	900538	1100958	1019022	1037239	1213856	1077205	1189117	1060476	628567	410874
Pb	1A3ai(i)	1046748	968489	862639	670077	793383	1058574	851939	1037742	1064778	1086178	1301299	1274267	1290594	1098040	1021484	1212346	1204863	1153645	1260929	1260918	1586643	1248827	701588	645801	737372	695289	694779	670070	444869	609048	593117
Pb	1A3bi	492695427	550650732	623750875	664237620	692032170	719538199	279363819	282937313	295747710	300023155	13511378	12914932	13482985	13069586	12579262	11799938	10907609	10166111	9538489	9357214	8861652	7969525	7240413	6948295	6941325	6626223	6403836	6453980	6365813	6545290	5400475
Pb	1A3bii	19013533	19013581	18322975	17072443	16007662	14949960	5181107	4712970	4401766	3983424	161604	139782	133118	124815	107188	90858	75505	64924	55967	51319	44852	38379	32464	29642	28282	25593	23076	21705	19875	18353	14359
Pb	1A3biv	41598761	39354266	37123458	34622492	32129643	30228777	10772201	10201488	10057907	9621181	407379	344294	379746	379948	378205	370990	359737	353726	333209	330612	334403	311038	298671	301005	307471	313943	337091	377615	387396	423107	390648
Pb	1A3bvi	1259248	1331078	1428677	1496643	1605850	1678037	1795859	1884124	1988907	2072734	2302859	2315847	2345034	2300085	2279725	2200852	2203862	2178564	2143952	2179370	2198990	2007443	1846925	1792966	1832823	1792861	1819115	1802614	1825304	1881343	1596329
Pb	1A4bi	1452800	1387238	1340427	1310760	1296909	1297793	1301563	1265592	1229626	1193662	1157695	1121722	1085755	1049786	1013821	977857	941885	905922	869962	834009	798063	851346	851745	871556	866816	862640	864379	864376	864380	860276	879664
Pb	2C1	3614236	2778273	4079297	4037495	4119053	4312111	4456123	4609543	4407657	4638261	4972763	3244330	2773583	3014764	3757000	4058983	4469400	4817800	5244200	4196400	4011641	5050120	5093594	5195225	5337083	5240646	5162154	5144041	5860697	5285398	5727097
Cd	1A2gviii	293578	262707	247473	232682	246899	247615	305161	346280	339577	291546	285195	225501	226786	197234	185378	190451	185417	167540	125861	126753	123770	97930	43145	27774	25475	27909	20669	18500	18087	18674	17561
Hg	1A2d	334450	362336	385296	388364	407192	393330	389289	403297	402468	412985	430538	383852	377534	343488	392641	377366	394228	395562	394757	407153	413359	412079	422287	417274	416610	428061	445230	437433	438398	449250	443766
Hg	1A3ai(ii)	3977	4018	4269	4049	4063	4240	4203	4339	4558	5044	4986	4875	4607	5103	5518	5732	6051	6363	6632	6018	6659	6906	6912	7167	7600	7925	8475	9678	1010411	2011086	3003956
Hg	1A3aii(ii)	290	317	334	311	344	374	374	388	449	497	584	612	652	625	697	717	709	692	651	725	751	694	696	630	644	696	847	957	1000944	2000948	3000476
Hg	5C1biii	647491	647491	647491	647491	647491	647491	723287	841987	633660	559339	381270	173505	152562	125853	95595	1960	1052	4496	5216	5167	6116	2996	2057	1830	1398	1014	1962	2021	8420	9324	12215

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
DIOX	2C1	4209	3386	4775	4695	4798	4968	5124	5264	5000	5290	5713	3844	3200	3479	4335	4683	5157	5559	6051	4842	4629	5827	5877	5994	6158	6047	5956	5935	6762	6099	6608
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	60444631	62378116	64230828	63095140	61932447	75667957	84198948	83685235	92795416	88673278	100760216	76605784	102721095	1736246	1703939	1660858	1598770	1645886	1608015	1660669	1384865	1360771	1489853	1461750	1557758	1749916	1907457	2007799	2380075	2383346	1282822
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	60388088	62322114	64174410	63038306	61876097	75610867	84186594	83672745	92782779	88660783	100746201	76590899	102706051	1717560	1684615	1641785	1579717	1626604	1588974	1642335	1368072	1344075	1472581	1443979	1536153	1726423	1874631	1974719	2343406	2338808	1273096
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	60388088	62322114	64174410	63038306	61876097	75610867	84186594	83672745	92782779	88660783	100746201	76590899	102706051	1717560	1684615	1641785	1579717	1626604	1588974	1642335	1368072	1344075	1472581	1443979	1536153	1726423	1874631	1974719	2343406	2338808	1273096
PCB	2C1	2743426	2084277	2965288	2970278	2943167	3147000	3267571	3378523	3279335	3504525	3862729	2957006	2666907	2898811	3612500	3902869	4297500	4632500	5042500	4035000	3857347	4855885	4897686	4995409	5131810	5039083	4963610	4946193	5635285	5082113	5506824
PCB	2K	998320000	959856647	920930875	899587455	888415345	787141872	778150821	775506394	713428357	709065290	708115765	676996038	635569217	598598517	559006179	541634621	513547676	439456250	364817899	343211460	263657418	184103376	176049506	81997169	43947809	31391292	21668157	21270307	20510687	15601643	15952967
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	1059140828	1021934228	985741006	963940909	953655778	854013456	847393824	847784040	788823874	787452168	794461468	769487853	735146855	724606787	686446068	670083226	643143099	570162046	496684436	424155922	322625357	251025989	261752286	139918506	105317158	85855450	84048911	95756167	91948839	89439712	90018506
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1010498914	975166121	940869284	920109004	910368136	815659586	809477918	809997639	754061859	752902699	759957021	736499036	704176611	695437356	659205240	643689026	618117396	548746141	478905622	407429071	309774271	242050764	253169387	135917329	103170210	84320308	82985278	94714822	90944421	88674402	89235562
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	1010498914	975166121	940869284	920109004	910368136	815659586	809477918	809997639	754061859	752902699	759957021	736499036	704176611	695437356	659205240	643689026	618117396	548746141	478905622	407429071	309774271	242050764	253169387	135917329	103170210	84320308	82985278	94714822	90944421	88674402	89235562