Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: PT Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	1A4ciii	8478	8681	7667	6885	7800	6333	5802	5372	5395	5215	7582	7686	5611	4307	5071	4174	4336	3593	3490	4256	4335	3740	3658	3712	3007	2645	2673	2489	2499	2745
NMVOC	11C	483913	498449	512700	527135	542070	498720	500938	502853	504770	507736	509704	511711	513667	515655	517698	519795	521586	523340	523859	524315	524757	524970	525497	525956	526446	526971	527591	528155	528807	529289
NMVOC	2H1	4123	4569	4572	4425	4562	4776	4679	5032	5081	5253	5430	5521	5852	5853	5899	6072	6253	6352	6206	6309	6685	7062	8523	8778	13258	7869	7979	7964	7984	8028
NH3	1A2d	1130	1261	1323	1289	1234	1280	1255	1384	1375	1428	1479	1393	1382	1246	1446	1442	1509	1510	1453	1446	1577	1587	1670	1689	1684	1674	1733	1746	1745	1743
NH3	2B10a	5422	5605	5780	5104	4824	4232	5215	5365	5102	5009	5771	4935	4959	4983	5622	5389	4260	5207	4070	2712	3526	4316	3642	3143	3458	3283	3294	3271	3109	3354

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PM2.5	2B10a	7648	6753	7018	6859	8016	7360	5882	6657	5439	3962	5526	6673	5895	5084	5606	5128	4998	4874	4759	5060
PM10	2B10a	7795	6890	7125	6972	8136	7484	5971	6775	5543	3989	5546	6697	5919	5105	5631	5165	5045	4932	4809	5119
TSP	2B10a	14233	13343	13642	13403	14880	14131	12494	13534	12158	10195	12106	13315	12249	11269	11912	11451	11424	11506	11535	12032
TSP	2I	3598	3899	3675	3652	3684	4100	4106	4191	1005	728	3114	2931	5061	4826	10022	3909	4322	3979	3883	3892

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A1a	1023685	1084041	1252601	1141165	1085187	1276580	1023727	1080344	1147709	1403272	1278341	1256419	1431791	1202593	1239093	1394392	1241699	1015315	935455	1055319	735560	900538	1100958	1019022	1037239	1213856	1077205	1189117	1060476	628567
Pb	1A3ai(i)	1046748	968489	862639	670077	793383	1058574	851939	1037742	1064778	1086178	1301299	1274267	1290594	1098040	1021484	1212346	1204863	1153645	1260929	1260918	1586643	1248827	701588	645801	737372	695289	694779	670070	444869	609048
Pb	1A3bi	492695427	550650732	623750875	664237620	692032170	719538199	279363819	282937313	295747710	300023155	13511378	12914932	13482985	13069519	12578482	11798664	10906050	10164575	9537167	9356053	8860664	7968728	7239794	6946692	6939741	6624457	6402144	6452786	6364974	6556735
Pb	1A3bii	19013533	19013581	18322975	17072443	16007662	14949960	5181107	4712970	4401766	3983424	161604	139782	133118	124814	107181	90848	75494	64915	55959	51313	44847	38375	32462	29733	28371	25692	23158	21750	19889	17865
Pb	1A3biv	41598761	39354266	37123458	34622492	32129643	30228777	10772201	10201488	10057907	9621181	407379	344294	379746	380015	378991	372274	361306	355270	334538	331778	335395	311839	299291	302502	308956	315612	338706	378781	388220	412067
Pb	1A3bvi	1259248	1331078	1428677	1496643	1605850	1678037	1795859	1884124	1988907	2072734	2302859	2315847	2345034	2300141	2279820	2200974	2203998	2178694	2144067	2179472	2199078	2007517	1846983	1792983	1832836	1792863	1818755	1802259	1825448	1878002
Pb	1A4bi	1452800	1387238	1340427	1310760	1296909	1297793	1301563	1265592	1229626	1193662	1157695	1121722	1085755	1049786	1013821	977857	941885	905922	869962	834009	798063	851346	851745	871556	866816	862640	864379	864376	864380	860276
Pb	2C1	3614236	2778273	4079297	4037495	4119053	4312111	4456123	4609543	4407657	4638261	4972763	3244330	2773583	3014764	3757000	4058983	4469400	4817800	5244200	4196400	4011641	5050120	5093594	5195225	5337083	5240646	5162154	5144041	5860697	5285398
Cd	1A2gviii	293578	262707	247473	232682	246899	247615	305161	346280	339577	291546	285195	225501	226786	197234	185378	190451	185417	167540	125861	126753	123770	97930	43145	27774	25475	27909	20669	18500	18087	18674
Hg	1A2d	334450	362336	385296	388364	407192	393330	389289	403297	402468	412985	430538	383852	377534	343488	392641	377366	394228	395562	394757	407153	413359	412079	422287	417274	416610	428061	445230	437433	438398	447983
Hg	1A3ai(ii)	3977	4018	4269	4049	4063	4240	4203	4339	4558	5044	4986	4875	4607	5103	5518	5732	6051	6363	6632	6018	6659	6906	6912	7167	7600	7925	8475	9678	1010411	2011086
Hg	1A3aii(ii)	290	317	334	311	344	374	374	388	449	497	584	612	652	625	697	717	709	692	651	725	751	694	696	630	644	696	847	957	1000944	2000948
Hg	5C1biii	647491	647491	647491	647491	647491	647491	723287	841987	633660	559339	381270	173505	152562	125853	95595	1960	1052	4496	5216	5167	6116	2996	2057	1830	1398	1014	1962	2021	8420	9324

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
DIOX	1A1a	1049	1112	1224	1226	1216	1408	1216	1260	1255	1598	1518	1462	1659	1498	1532	1640	1559	1309	1240	1466	1105	2871	3067	2762	2854	3135	3070	3410	2716	2139
DIOX	2C1	4209	3386	4775	4695	4798	4968	5124	5264	5000	5290	5713	3844	3200	3479	4335	4683	5157	5559	6051	4842	4629	5827	5877	5994	6158	6047	5956	5935	6762	6099
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	60448288	62381239	64233495	63099131	61936758	75672208	84202550	83687698	92796448	88673278	100760216	76605784	102721095	1736246	1703939	1660858	1598770	1645886	1608015	1660669	1384865	1360771	1489853	1461750	1557758	1749917	1907456	2007796	2380065	2383229
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	60391551	62325071	64176938	63042089	61880183	75614900	84190015	83675086	92783761	88660783	100746201	76590899	102706051	1717560	1684615	1641785	1579717	1626604	1588974	1642335	1368072	1344075	1472581	1443979	1536153	1726424	1874630	1974716	2343397	2334602
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	60448288	62381239	64233495	63099131	61936758	75672208	84202550	83687698	92796448	88673278	100760216	76605784	102721095	1736246	1703939	1660858	1598770	1645886	1608015	1660669	1384865	1360771	1489853	1461750	1557758	1749917	1907456	2007796	2380065	2383229
PCB	2K	998320000	959856647	920930875	899587455	888415345	787141872	778150821	775506394	713428357	709065290	708115765	676996038	635569217	598598517	559006179	541634621	513547676	439456250	364817899	343211460	263657418	184103376	176049506	81997169	43947809	31391292	21668157	21270307	20510687	15601643
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	1063885472	1025985511	989201083	969118745	959248417	859527940	852066996	850978731	790162989	787452168	794461468	769487853	735146855	724606787	686446068	670083226	643143099	570162046	496684436	424155922	322625357	251025989	261752285	139918506	105317158	85855451	84048911	95756166	91949898	89439421
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1015243558	979217404	944329361	925286840	915960775	821174070	814151090	813192329	755400974	752902699	759957021	736499036	704176611	695437356	659205240	643689026	618117396	548746141	478905622	407429071	309774271	242050764	253169387	135917330	103170210	84320308	82985277	94714822	90945480	88674110
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	1063885472	1025985511	989201083	969118745	959248417	859527940	852066996	850978731	790162989	787452168	794461468	769487853	735146855	724606787	686446068	670083226	643143099	570162046	496684436	424155922	322625357	251025989	261752285	139918506	105317158	85855451	84048911	95756166	91949898	89439421