Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: PT Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NOx	1A3ai(ii)	5854	5638	5979	5752	5779	5974	5952	6034	6517	7349	7555	7425	7053	7809	8525	8825	9266	9661	9982	9098	10083	10418	10448	10742	14701	11770	12571	14379	15476
NOx	1A4ciii	9936	10174	8986	8071	9168	7426	6801	6297	6324	6112	8886	9069	6666	5152	6109	5064	5297	4421	4325	5312	5451	4738	4683	4784	3903	3487	3529	3297	3366
NMVOC	11C	483913	498449	512700	527135	542070	498720	500938	502853	504770	507736	509704	511711	513667	515655	517698	519795	521586	523340	523859	524315	524757	524970	525497	525956	526446	526971	527591	528155	528807
NMVOC	2H1	4123	4569	4572	4425	4562	4776	4679	5032	5081	5253	5430	5521	5852	5853	5899	6072	6253	6352	6206	6309	6685	7062	8523	8778	13258	7869	7979	7964	7984
NH3	1A2d	1130	1261	1323	1289	1234	1280	1255	1384	1375	1428	1479	1393	1382	1246	1446	1442	1509	1510	1453	1446	1577	1587	1670	1689	1684	1674	1733	1746	1745
NH3	2B10a	5422	5605	5780	5104	4824	4232	5215	5365	5102	5009	5771	4935	4959	4983	5622	5389	4260	5207	4070	2712	3526	4316	3642	3143	3458	3283	3294	3271	3161

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
PM2.5	2B10a	7648	6753	7018	6859	8016	7360	5882	6657	5439	3962	5526	6673	5895	5084	5606	5128	4998	4874	4826
PM10	2B10a	7795	6890	7125	6972	8136	7484	5971	6775	5543	3989	5546	6697	5919	5105	5631	5165	5045	4932	4876
TSP	2B10a	14233	13343	13642	13403	14880	14131	12494	13534	12158	10195	12106	13315	12249	11269	11912	11451	11424	11506	11586
TSP	2I	3598	3899	3675	3652	3684	4100	4106	4191	1005	728	3114	2931	5061	4826	10022	3909	4322	3979	3883

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A1a	1023685	1084041	1252601	1141165	1085187	1276580	1023727	1080344	1147709	1403272	1278341	1256419	1431791	1202593	1239093	1394392	1241699	1015315	935455	1055319	735560	900538	1100958	1017238	1041497	1206721	1068488	1176375	1053189
Pb	1A3bi	485684575	543566658	616875319	657818756	686076690	713922864	277395183	281138864	294072692	298507573	13449842	12862635	13433944	13023976	12540365	11767156	10880538	10145382	9524864	9348150	8858150	7968923	7245192	6957038	6950868	6730720	6530539	6486905	6416328
Pb	1A3bii	26708001	26692628	25691500	23895506	22295284	20848072	7239863	6587420	6141965	5553111	225152	194051	184404	172526	147245	124136	102528	88056	75658	69343	60381	51502	43545	39800	37869	34710	31287	28870	26365
Pb	1A3biv	41006828	38847977	36714249	34287917	31853142	29992869	10696291	10136643	10000943	9572579	405524	342480	377571	377797	376950	370373	359686	351250	327060	321636	322426	298586	284668	287318	292345	303740	327839	357009	371160
Pb	1A3bvi	1251260	1323198	1421198	1489708	1599408	1666236	1776945	1858276	1957923	2037793	2259726	2270074	2298474	2253269	2230627	2150462	2149759	2122218	2086836	2121063	2139555	1953792	1798390	1746045	1786374	1748458	1775182	1761865	1785017
Pb	2C1	3614236	2778273	4079297	4037495	4119053	4312111	4456123	4609543	4407657	4638261	4972763	3244330	2773583	3014764	3757000	4058983	4469400	4817800	5244200	4196400	4011641	5050120	5093594	5195225	5337083	5240646	5162154	5144041	5860697
Cd	1A1a	178730	189113	231938	198869	187492	226655	170810	186117	215505	264522	218199	214155	236742	170960	195989	234554	191594	137450	124630	134293	89370	112007	136493	126069	127279	148120	131571	144373	127347
Cd	1A2gviii	293578	262707	247473	232682	246899	247615	305161	346280	339577	291546	285195	225501	226786	197234	185378	190451	185417	167540	125861	126753	123770	97930	43145	27774	25475	27909	20669	18500	18087
Hg	1A2d	334450	362336	385296	388364	407192	393330	389289	403297	402468	412985	430538	383852	377534	343488	392641	377366	394228	395562	394757	407153	413359	412079	422287	417274	416610	428061	445230	437433	438398
Hg	5C1biii	647491	647491	647491	647491	647491	647491	723287	841987	633660	559339	381270	173505	152562	125853	95595	1960	1052	4496	5216	5167	6116	2996	2057	1830	1398	1014	1962	2021	8420

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
DIOX	1A1a	1049	1112	1224	1226	1216	1408	1216	1260	1255	1598	1518	1462	1659	1498	1532	1640	1559	1309	1240	1466	1105	2871	3067	2758	2864	3118	3049	3379	2699
DIOX	2C1	4209	3386	4775	4695	4798	4968	5124	5264	5000	5290	5713	3844	3200	3479	4335	4683	5157	5559	6051	4842	4629	5827	5877	5994	6158	6047	5956	5935	6762
PCB	2K	998320000	959856647	920930875	899587455	888415345	787141872	778150821	775506394	713428357	709065290	708115765	676996038	635569217	598598517	559006179	541634621	513547676	439456250	364817899	343211460	263657418	184103376	176049506	81997169	43947809	31391292	21668157	21270307	20510687
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	1063885487	1025985528	989201103	969118764	959248458	859527949	852066990	850978708	790162948	787452111	794461389	769487768	735146766	724606693	686445965	670083111	643142965	570161901	496684282	424155757	322625183	251025835	261752152	139918082	105317775	85854148	84047360	95753951	91948637
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1015243294	979217125	944329076	925286524	915960466	821173676	814150713	813191925	755400582	752901895	759955995	736497443	704174135	695434390	659202095	643685967	618113759	548742497	478898554	407414643	309750198	242025379	253144233	135891944	103142576	84292857	82959486	94689160	90918045
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	1063885487	1025985528	989201103	969118764	959248458	859527949	852066990	850978708	790162948	787452111	794461389	769487768	735146766	724606693	686445965	670083111	643142965	570161901	496684282	424155757	322625183	251025835	261752152	139918082	105317775	85854148	84047360	95753951	91948637