Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: PT Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
NOx	1A3ai(ii)	5854	5638	5979	5752	5779	5974	5952	6034	6517	7349	7555	7425	7053	7809	8525	8825	9266	9661	9982	9098	10083	10418	10448	10742	14701	11770	12571	14379
NMVOC	11C	483913	498449	512700	527135	542070	498720	500938	502853	504770	507736	509704	511711	513667	515655	517698	519795	521586	523340	523859	524315	524757	524970	525497	525956	526446	526971	527591	528155
NMVOC	2H1	4125	4570	4573	4427	4564	4777	4681	5034	5083	5255	5432	5522	5854	5854	5901	6074	6255	6353	6206	6309	6685	7062	8523	8778	13258	7869	7979	7964
NH3	1A2d	1130	1261	1323	1289	1234	1280	1255	1384	1375	1428	1479	1393	1382	1246	1446	1442	1509	1510	1453	1446	1577	1587	1670	1689	1684	1674	1733	1746
NH3	2B10a	5422	5605	5780	5104	4824	4232	5215	5365	5102	5009	5771	4935	4959	4983	5622	5389	4260	5207	4070	2712	3526	4316	3642	3143	3458	3283	3294	3271

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
PM2.5	2A5b	408	1133	2023	1199	741	379	1303	495	732	805	288	1408	3814	293	124	106	131	124
PM2.5	2B10a	7648	6753	7018	6859	8016	7360	5882	6657	5439	3962	5526	6673	5895	5084	5606	5128	4998	4874
PM2.5	2H1	4295	4365	4668	4676	4705	4860	5016	5088	4949	5279	5628	5977	6140	6468	6503	6558	6705	6766
PM10	2A5b	4081	11334	20229	11986	7414	3789	13025	4945	7320	8049	2875	14080	38135	2926	1245	1055	1306	1238
PM10	2B10a	7795	6890	7125	6972	8136	7484	5971	6775	5543	3989	5546	6697	5919	5105	5631	5165	5045	4932
PM10	2H1	5207	5292	5659	5669	5704	5892	6082	6168	6000	6399	6823	7247	7444	7842	7884	7950	8128	8203
PM10	NATIONALTOTAL	109380	121012	124910	108242	109104	107790	107616	97110	96556	94408	84407	94645	112888	72626	67548	69484	70321	72804
PM10	NTCOMPLIANCE	107904	119157	122604	106345	107351	106154	105482	95367	94708	92537	82850	92604	109763	71289	66307	68225	69024	71464
TSP	2A5b	13547	37825	67604	40010	24731	12581	43504	16425	24395	26855	9550	47063	127597	9726	4117	3489	4326	4096
TSP	2B10a	14237	13348	13646	13407	14885	14135	12495	13534	12151	10196	12116	13317	12253	11263	11910	11451	11390	11416
TSP	2H1	5884	5980	6395	6406	6445	6658	6872	6970	6780	7231	7710	8188	8411	8861	8908	8983	9184	9269
TSP	2I	3598	3899	3675	3652	3684	4100	4106	4191	1005	728	3114	2931	5061	4826	10022	3909	4322	3979
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL	264720	329157	333645	272173	287640	298156	289113	250231	253825	255568	209176	239207	302821	164150	143907	150938	157841	169440
TSP	NTCOMPLIANCE	262272	325479	328518	268407	284520	295567	284924	247367	250597	252260	206793	235076	294927	162114	142156	149191	156033	167579
BC	NATIONALTOTAL	10437	10123	9748	9287	9263	8978	8732	8486	8225	7986	7921	7865	7272	7062	6967	6629	6520	6440
BC	NTCOMPLIANCE	10274	10020	9623	9151	9131	8814	8554	8291	8006	7778	7708	7628	7031	6832	6743	6406	6278	6191

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Pb	1A1a	3611297	3812610	4680246	4057459	3676617	4285290	3237582	3371956	3985578	4669935	4135260	4235987	4961707	3816310	3818133	4539250	3801176	3153710	2829810	3000099	1838544	2371638	2988264	2732828	2767447	3274988	2922303	3258239
Pb	1A3bi	481056463	538375772	611765748	652750837	676557669	703192388	272452085	272262064	283056056	287632952	13094718	12399206	13022479	12626926	12135516	11503055	10714014	10020001	9521390	9344795	8853464	7969461	7246060	6958109	6949678	6724638	6515893	6462716
Pb	1A3bii	26455696	26442093	25484366	23717087	21991105	20540620	7112857	6381546	5915422	5354421	219365	187237	178932	167451	142664	121516	101110	87102	75743	69420	60441	51591	43619	39862	38188	35524	32640	30928
Pb	1A3biv	40617009	38478620	36411948	34025158	31412055	29542652	10505688	9816252	9624971	9221581	394687	329980	365734	365879	364292	361430	353438	346098	326096	320663	321326	297622	283722	286183	293192	308944	341068	384660
Pb	1A3bvi	1177976	1243160	1346577	1413338	1513969	1590249	1684850	1783533	1937176	2019858	2250330	2258158	2292046	2250699	2229697	2161900	2170636	2147428	2120350	2155681	2175917	1992121	1833724	1782746	1823070	1792587	1793184	1810948
Pb	2C1	9277366	7605115	11982848	11858510	12318447	12101435	12099223	12095579	10806761	11535399	12216329	3395313	1667187	1810380	2653528	2852033	3186608	3497215	3680864	2958985	2789031	3609357	3658849	3799901	3912673	3812720	3639219	3568406
Cd	1A1a	1423050	1508010	2083688	1449074	1068575	1305595	641368	707920	1261623	1305472	954122	1169196	1472045	714122	668447	1151981	602719	516626	465092	380631	286034	267598	259356	225747	202236	213503	222398	235797
Cd	1A2f	2918000	3248641	2843247	2781934	3390064	3312063	3091104	3400859	3573744	3555366	3337363	3169363	3616891	3671471	3622732	4129670	3690168	4048760	3770756	2305270	2733983	1508443	1257630	2924481	2985160	2689868	1687982	2653607
Cd	1A2gviii	293768	262862	247622	232790	246963	247675	305221	346341	339639	291604	285249	225569	226853	197294	185447	190515	185468	167586	125867	126795	123814	97864	43175	27796	25389	27846	20642	18347
Hg	1A1a	1430947	1513651	1955422	1530836	1277283	1516485	990248	1052804	1425811	1592975	1332449	1450152	1744450	1155139	1132495	1504007	1100658	920588	836613	860681	595273	711407	842869	779269	785531	892238	813695	883240
Hg	1A2d	334450	362336	385296	388364	407192	393330	389289	403297	402468	412985	430538	383852	377534	343488	392641	377366	394228	395562	394757	407153	413359	412079	422287	417274	424261	428061	445230	436749
Hg	2C1	21678	18497	26738	26219	27040	27510	27953	28318	26808	29600	31562	15473	28998	31480	47942	51575	57730	63595	66458	53543	50250	65421	66390	69212	71300	69368	65768	64260
Hg	5C1biii	647491	647491	647491	647491	647491	647491	723287	841987	633660	559339	381270	173505	152562	125853	95595	1960	1052	4496	5216	5167	6116	2996	2057	1830	1398	1014	1962	2021

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
DIOX	1A1a	1049	1112	1224	1226	1216	1408	1216	1260	1255	1598	1518	1462	1659	1498	1532	1640	1559	1309	1240	1466	1105	2871	3067	2758	2864	3118	3049	3379
HCB	2C3	56663399	58572899	60406285	59211285	58020400	71649035	81495050	80739500	90304770	86108560	98533175	74847755	100911570	115104135	50270105	106514015	122781745	90023960	117063325	95406395	110673585	112262135	128794860	111140405	82812990	86789445	47489380	57610060
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	58840802	60773852	62626410	61492013	60329800	74065146	83989064	83474118	92582773	88459769	100546663	76390513	102506565	116626434	51760099	107960774	124166265	91455526	118456841	96852561	111843911	113408302	130070163	112316038	83977030	88082685	48728668	58965040
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	58838248	60771248	62623772	61489339	60327058	74062388	83986302	83471344	92579981	88456926	100542752	76385806	102501307	116617310	51750513	107951267	124156999	91445998	118447313	96843654	111836395	113400818	130062044	112309773	83970459	88076235	48721003	58956266
PCB	2C1	1244635848	1012520418	1571927905	1522608114	1634267115	1594372958	1589298261	1588444446	1403496439	1487840659	1575274761	381306423	2666907	2898811	3623514	3878610	4297286	4633343	5042180	4012034	3857348	4855885	4897686	4995409	5131810	5039083	4963610	4946193
PCB	2K	998320000	959856647	920930875	899587455	888415345	787141872	778150821	775506394	713428357	709065290	708115765	676996038	635569217	598598517	559006179	541634621	513547676	439456250	364817899	343211460	263657418	184103376	176049506	81997169	43947809	31391292	21668157	21270307
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	2305826498	2036476148	2558215335	2488809346	2590626970	2450801779	2438154750	2436082734	2190380546	2271787968	2365871439	1147834032	735145981	724581922	686430283	670059095	643142908	570162862	496683975	424132805	322625195	251025840	261752157	139918090	105318136	85854154	84047365	95753943
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	2257191399	1989714864	2513350394	2444984190	2547346084	2412454626	2400245612	2398302424	2155624486	2237244462	2331374189	1114852839	704182975	695420013	659197192	643672293	618124416	548753878	478911140	407412571	309780591	242056866	253175546	135923422	103177116	84324849	82991742	94717701