Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: PT Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NOx	1A3ai(ii)	5854	5638	5979	5752	5779	5974	5952	6034	6517	7349	7555	7425	7053	7809	8525	8825	9266	9661	9982	9098	10083	10418	10448	10742	14701	11770	12571
NMVOC	11C	458276	472329	486169	500267	514940	472817	474322	475525	476732	478989	480247	481545	482793	484075	485414	486807	487896	489122	490887	492591	494283	495748	497529	499244	500991	502776	504643
NMVOC	2H1	4125	4570	4573	4427	4564	4777	4681	5034	5083	5255	5432	5522	5854	5854	5901	6074	6255	6353	6206	6309	6685	7062	8523	8778	13258	7869	7979
SOx	1A1b	18799	18875	24321	30538	37045	34398	33764	33342	42280	40359	35600	27629	28231	23455	20861	16109	17823	17156	17422	11704	9369	7463	6435	3111	275	106	176
NH3	1A2d	1130	1261	1323	1289	1234	1280	1255	1384	1375	1428	1479	1393	1382	1246	1446	1442	1509	1510	1453	1446	1577	1587	1670	1689	1684	1674	1733
NH3	2B10a	5422	5605	5780	5104	4824	4232	5215	5365	5102	5009	5771	4935	4959	4983	5622	5389	4260	5207	4070	2712	3526	4316	3642	3143	3458	3283	3294
NH3	NATIONALTOTAL	81757	81212	80146	78415	77249	75086	76448	75180	72551	74543	77630	73775	71393	64571	64117	62941	61019	62462	60336	57733	57100	57596	55536	53884	55853	56575	56342
NH3	NTCOMPLIANCE	76584	75825	74812	73128	71763	69687	71006	69733	67013	68467	71281	67388	64835	58443	57963	56686	54830	56398	54230	51596	51000	51565	49456	47916	49934	50484	50180

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
PM2.5	2A5b	408	1133	2023	1199	741	379	1303	495	732	805	288	1408	3814	293	124	106	112
PM2.5	2B10a	7650	6754	7019	6860	8017	7361	5882	6657	5439	3962	5526	6673	5896	5084	5607	5129	4999
PM2.5	2H1	4295	4365	4668	4676	4705	4860	5016	5088	4949	5279	5628	5977	6140	6468	6503	6558	6705
PM10	2A5b	4081	11334	20229	11986	7414	3789	13025	4945	7320	8049	2875	14080	38135	2926	1245	1055	1121
PM10	2B10a	7795	6891	7125	6973	8137	7484	5972	6776	5543	3990	5546	6698	5920	5105	5631	5165	5045
PM10	2H1	5207	5292	5659	5669	5704	5892	6082	6168	6000	6399	6823	7247	7444	7842	7884	7950	8128
PM10	NATIONALTOTAL	100451	112765	117357	101369	102820	102013	101808	91378	90351	88300	78558	88968	107458	67419	62581	64130	65047
PM10	NTCOMPLIANCE	99063	110998	115137	99554	101149	100459	99758	89719	88601	86523	77091	87016	104419	66164	61420	62975	63806
TSP	2A5b	13547	37825	67604	40010	24731	12581	43504	16425	24395	26855	9550	47063	127597	9726	4117	3489	3713
TSP	2B10a	14250	13361	13659	13420	14899	14149	12508	13548	12165	10210	12130	13331	12266	11276	11923	11451	11390
TSP	2H1	5884	5980	6395	6406	6445	6658	6872	6970	6780	7231	7710	8188	8411	8861	8908	8983	9184
TSP	2I	3598	3899	3675	3652	3684	4100	4106	4191	998	720	3072	2925	5038	4813	9981	3870	4318

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A1a	3611297	3812610	4680246	4057459	3676617	4285290	3237582	3371956	3985578	4669935	4135260	4235987	4961707	3816310	3818133	4539250	3801176	3153710	2829810	3000099	1838544	2371638	2988264	2732828	2767447	3274914	2924040
Pb	1A3bi	509079768	566154371	638467296	677547821	699532917	724638366	279863773	278915443	289208954	293287424	13315910	12586542	13086510	12701094	12203294	11566074	10765934	10060146	9539515	9367620	8884272	8001731	7274423	6996530	6991140	6767775	6543140
Pb	1A3biv	39439144	37743773	36006892	33835717	31393225	29640317	10592540	9928070	9779122	9376294	401383	337233	487466	464723	444029	424043	405937	395802	389508	371318	352777	318428	300372	297213	299555	310360	336171
Pb	1A3bvi	1089987	1179936	1305502	1386598	1488400	1583733	1682027	1794573	2026983	2146078	2377428	2415276	2473193	2459144	2445426	2414015	2439113	2407538	2375774	2394608	2379116	2209027	2021157	1969184	1999212	2023848	2025305
Pb	2C1	9277366	7605115	11982848	11858510	12318447	12101435	12099223	12095579	10806761	11535399	12216329	3395313	1667187	1810380	2653528	2852033	3186608	3497215	3680864	2958985	2789031	3609357	3658849	3799901	3912673	3812720	3639219
Cd	1A1a	1423050	1508010	2083688	1449074	1068575	1305595	641368	707920	1261623	1305472	954122	1169196	1472045	714122	668447	1151981	602719	516626	465092	380631	286034	267598	259356	225747	202236	213503	222533
Cd	1A2f	2918000	3248641	2843247	2781934	3390064	3312063	3091104	3400859	3573744	3555366	3337363	3169363	3616891	3671471	3622732	4129670	3690168	4048760	3770756	2305270	2733983	1508443	1257630	2924481	2985160	2689917	1687978
Cd	1A2gviii	293768	262862	247622	232790	246963	247675	305221	346341	339639	291604	285249	225569	226853	197294	185447	190515	185468	167586	125867	126795	123814	97864	43175	27796	25389	27791	20690
Cd	1A3ai(ii)	76250	77448	78454	79719	81541	85135	86580	83411	95112	95835	138837	128619	126946	132580	155640	159334	169499	177083	177571	165286	173943	180659	194268	181190	147251	204070	221174
Hg	1A1a	1430947	1513651	1955422	1530836	1277283	1516485	990248	1052804	1425811	1592975	1332449	1450152	1744450	1155139	1132495	1504007	1100658	920588	836613	860681	595273	711407	842869	779269	785531	892219	813663
Hg	1A2d	334450	362335	385294	388362	407190	393330	389289	403297	402468	412985	430538	383852	377534	343488	392641	377366	394228	395562	394757	407153	413359	412079	422287	417274	424261	428148	445416
Hg	1A2f	207433	210726	202081	203992	208307	217586	224315	256183	261612	251134	242988	228593	218690	198113	222451	217856	204356	217117	212423	195796	195316	78918	61274	60587	70283	64495	55169
Hg	2C1	21678	18497	26738	26219	27040	27510	27953	28318	26808	29600	31562	15473	28998	31480	47942	51575	57730	63595	66458	53543	50250	65421	66390	69212	71300	69368	65768
Hg	5C1biii	647491	647491	647491	647491	647491	647491	723287	841987	633660	559339	381270	173505	152562	125853	95595	1960	1052	4496	4517	4940	5518	2804	2154	1714	1991	1012	1962

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	1A1a	1049	1112	1224	1226	1216	1408	1216	1260	1255	1598	1518	1462	1659	1498	1532	1640	1559	1309	1240	1466	1105	2871	3067	2758	2864	3097	2966
DIOX	5C1biii	482302	482302	482302	482302	482302	482302	538761	627178	472000	416640	284000	129240	113640	93745	71207	48668	26130	111634	112162	122655	137019	69626	53489	42551	49444	25120	48720
PCB	2C1	1244635848	1012520418	1571927905	1522608114	1634267115	1594372958	1589298261	1588444446	1403496439	1487840659	1575274761	381306423	2666907	2898811	3623514	3878610	4297286	4633343	5042180	4012034	3857348	4855885	4897686	4995409	5131810	5039083	4963610
PCB	2K	998320000	996020000	995250000	996470000	999150000	1002620000	1006390000	1010900000	1016020000	1021780000	1028990000	1036272200	1041960000	1045880000	1048390000	1050330000	1052230000	1054300000	1055820000	1056824700	1057310100	1055756100	1051484500	1045729600	1040106300	1035807700	1032545200
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	2305707175	2072514907	2632410702	2585564665	2701226834	2666156049	2666259642	2671369683	2492905172	2584436290	2686931589	1507552753	1142237588	1171912867	1193335256	1213721454	1234266004	1254919367	1275063941	1242877165	1112212928	1134225342	1159857166	1110117667	1105134042	1093010855	1095467470
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	2257072075	2023991855	2583925161	2537019688	2652551295	2617311461	2617231389	2622121716	2443407773	2534658279	2636802327	1457068724	1091476464	1120960771	1142260881	1162552568	1183004555	1203557075	1223627596	1191391876	1060703992	1082792113	1108632039	1059172903	1054463228	1042549456	1045165010