Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: PT Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	1A1a	66483	70251	81081	72657	68183	77454	60797	59174	63081	66728	55916	53831	62421	47068	46240	54243	42313	39627	29452	25962	14089	17220	19756	17329	17304	20954
NOx	1A3ai(ii)	5303	5024	5310	5155	5114	5272	5264	5331	5846	6525	6846	6719	6369	7028	7817	7917	8326	8622	9024	8369	9273	9563	9642	9860	13646	10931
NOx	1A3bi	38207	42668	48573	47604	46536	45837	45029	43882	44438	43663	44837	42359	42780	41771	40132	37197	36330	34574	34572	34815	34651	31136	27448	25334	25913	24010
NMVOC	11C	458276	472329	486169	500267	514940	472817	474322	475525	476732	478989	480247	481545	482793	484075	485414	486807	487896	489122	490887	492591	494283	495748	497529	499244	500991	502777
NMVOC	1A3bi	55127	61583	69670	68194	65648	64040	61882	57772	55439	51755	45243	39225	37470	33986	30364	26009	22547	19479	17132	15421	13211	10810	8895	7475	6500	5506
NMVOC	2D3i	6656	7067	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862
SOx	1A1b	18799	18875	24321	30538	37045	34398	33764	33342	42280	40359	35600	27629	28231	23455	20861	16109	17823	17156	17422	11704	9369	7463	6435	3111	275	106
SOx	1A2f	6703	9137	10945	8856	9182	10778	11168	14820	16382	13555	12867	11274	10106	8003	8631	8445	7715	8085	7498	6501	6374	6959	6330	6013	6147	5233
NH3	2B10a	2008	1662	2273	1923	2093	1746	1992	2020	1880	1923	2096	1865	1961	1893	2447	2228	1930	2224	1663	1147	1493	2196	2287	1773	2024	1838
NH3	3Da2a	13098	12574	12362	12226	11944	11890	11582	11491	11574	12013	11959	11488	10730	10036	9587	9298	9093	8834	8664	8677	8631	8492	8182	7928	7864	7813
CO	1A3bi	346803	374353	410470	399252	382028	370543	357001	330420	314899	292027	257840	223441	213415	193339	172565	144171	124379	107018	93820	84140	72203	59227	48911	41378	36338	31097
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	804750	818928	857228	835761	815375	804463	790364	755620	732349	706621	655778	574468	556537	516330	483988	444710	413294	389187	364111	344220	327004	307256	290760	284435	277371	271735
CO	NTCOMPLIANCE	781080	794154	830958	810456	790811	780087	766944	733362	710607	686046	636949	557915	540299	501746	470634	432568	402195	378962	354576	335065	318064	299639	284480	278533	271625	266239

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
PM2.5	2B10a	3601	3459	3616	3388	4448	3871	3282	3368	2850	2054	2931	3940	4124	3314	3739	3358
PM10	2B10a	3662	3522	3673	3446	4512	3933	3335	3431	2903	2082	2975	3986	4169	3357	3781	3398
TSP	2B10a	9625	9591	9813	9489	10864	10215	9584	9839	9235	8137	9372	10375	10334	9382	9899	9509

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A1a	3498082	3690502	4547080	3929456	3537783	4140909	3105273	3227503	3818420	4503233	3965102	4055817	4765779	3588308	3555559	4254359	3511876	2865537	2533173	2713147	1561836	2129033	2746228	2514465	2576748	3087361
Pb	1A3bi	462540005	516291326	584746650	621214613	641661680	664745057	256598888	255593891	264865966	268489585	9177232	8743752	9134279	8914824	8550949	8089525	7509427	6970615	6595577	6434118	6052228	5421928	4883367	4634076	4591065	4483203
Pb	1A3biv	65543066	64596305	63983799	62305834	60079193	58905789	21877729	21221648	21507373	21266017	699642	563983	637501	563157	555369	546531	543172	569937	568915	596808	622521	593187	593838	647964	691800	740527
Pb	1A4bi	1472114	1406293	1359211	1329261	1315118	1315699	1319167	1282922	1246679	1209804	1172924	1136040	1099164	1062287	1025413	988533	951662	914772	877890	841010	804194	857443	857842	877639	872903	868622
Pb	2C1	1571380	1335265	1940589	1903749	1963695	1985807	2014093	2050410	1929624	2123370	2269406	1113245	1667187	1810380	2653528	2852033	3186608	3497215	3680864	2958985	2789031	3609357	3658849	3799901	3912673	3812720
Cd	1A1a	1347980	1426222	1994290	1362452	977500	1210462	553709	608590	1145468	1183183	820445	1028370	1325622	561109	493041	958959	408398	322906	265511	187245	100820	91669	84858	65488	63528	77950
Cd	1A2f	2918000	3248641	2843247	2781934	3390064	3312063	3091104	3400859	3573744	3555366	3337363	3169363	3616891	3671471	3622732	4129670	3690168	4048760	3770756	2305270	2733983	1508443	1257630	2924481	2985160	2689917
Cd	1A2gviii	293768	262862	247622	232790	246963	247675	305221	346341	339639	291604	285249	225569	226853	197294	185447	190515	185468	167586	125867	126795	123814	97864	43175	27796	25389	27791
Cd	1A3ai(ii)	104941	104612	111054	106221	105495	110389	109324	112686	119707	130579	131609	128343	121097	133551	146983	149599	158053	165245	174986	161214	178628	184691	185657	191599	200145	214133
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	6335398	6752000	6909173	6125270	6390794	6582044	5777665	6238356	6962331	6900959	6306294	6226321	6975669	6192869	6098862	7050294	6070803	6318071	5952895	4274403	4581785	3386217	3033402	4626949	4668434	4383917
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	6245393	6654676	6805226	6024549	6284775	6471486	5673536	6122807	6829051	6762182	6152803	6065189	6810432	6022814	5906431	6837640	5856776	6103943	5733273	4059675	4376082	3192348	2842181	4449576	4512035	4229748
Hg	1A1a	1375499	1453213	1889353	1466795	1210048	1446240	925504	979314	1339831	1499745	1227611	1340170	1629808	1034525	995347	1352998	949182	770404	681395	709117	449525	573952	708182	653460	676673	784889
Hg	1A2d	334450	362335	385294	388362	407190	393330	389289	403297	402468	412985	430538	383852	377534	343488	392641	377366	394228	395562	394757	407153	413359	412079	422287	417274	424261	428148
Hg	1A2f	207433	210726	202081	203992	208307	217586	224315	256183	261612	251134	242988	228593	218690	198113	222451	217856	204356	217117	212423	195796	195316	78918	61274	60588	70283	64495
Hg	2C1	21664	18486	26720	26201	27022	27492	27936	28300	26792	29583	31545	15469	28998	31480	47942	51575	57730	63595	66458	53543	50250	65421	66390	69212	71300	69368
Hg	5C1biii	647491	647491	647491	647491	647491	647491	723287	841987	633660	559339	381270	173505	152562	125853	95595	1960	1052	4496	4517	4940	5518	2804	2154	1714	1991	1845

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
DIOX	5C1biii	482302	482302	482302	482302	482302	482302	538761	627178	472000	416640	284000	129240	113640	93745	71207	48668	26130	111634	112162	122655	137019	69626	53489	42551	49444	45800
HCB	1A1a	566448	600783	617782	681896	713814	818707	754584	776948	715076	928588	925894	860009	950685	909446	926899	949322	946213	786240	712896	816765	504362	675411	860670	792083	805283	966883
HCB	5C1biii	1205756	1205756	1205756	1205756	1205756	1205756	1346903	1567946	1180000	1041600	710000	323100	284100	234363	178017	121671	65325	279085	280406	306638	342548	174066	133723	106378	123610	114500