Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: PT Submission year: 2016

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2014
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2014
PMs: 2000 - 2014

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
NOx	1A3ai(ii)	5521	5024	5310	5155	5114	5272	5264	5331	5846	6525	6846	6719	6369	7028	7817	7917	8326	8622	9024	8369	9273	9563	9642	9860	13646
NOx	1A3bi	38207	42668	48573	47604	46536	45837	45029	43882	44438	43663	44837	42359	42780	41771	40132	37197	36329	34574	34572	34801	34620	31100	28960	25994	26420
NMVOC	11C	458276	472329	486169	500267	514940	472817	474322	475525	476732	478989	480247	481545	482793	484075	485414	486807	487896	489122	490887	492591	494283	495748	497529	499244	500991
NMVOC	1A3bi	55127	61583	69670	68194	65648	64040	61882	57772	55439	51755	45243	39225	37470	33986	30364	26009	22547	19479	17132	15420	13210	10809	8949	7496	6499
NMVOC	2D3a	26632	26641	26773	26905	27037	27169	27301	27433	27565	27697	27829	27962	28200	28277	28336	28382	28438	28494	28520	28548	28546	28464	28316	28154	28012
NMVOC	2D3i	6656	7067	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862	6862
SOx	1A1b	18799	18875	24321	30538	37045	34398	33764	33342	42280	40359	35600	27629	28231	23455	20861	16109	17823	17156	17422	11704	9369	7463	6435	3111	117
NH3	2B10a	2008	1662	2273	1923	2093	1746	1992	2020	1880	1923	2096	1865	1961	1893	2447	2228	1930	2224	1663	1147	1493	2196	2287	1773	2024
NH3	3Da2a	15258	15143	14867	14677	14368	14368	14060	13947	14016	14549	14505	13961	13129	12320	11828	11534	11304	10983	10758	10745	10657	10452	10061	9733	9608
CO	2B10a	23149	23149	23149	25536	27542	28903	30521	28375	39291	38276	39241	39233	39055	42899	44747	44747	41742	39788	42392	34650	41277	39534	26475	22727
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	802887	815748	852317	833917	815884	806561	795056	759056	746965	720711	673203	593056	574572	539790	511252	472270	438772	413472	392288	366022	355023	332461	302757	292832	263114
CO	NTCOMPLIANCE	802887	815748	852317	833917	815884	806561	795056	759056	746965	720711	673203	593056	574572	539790	511252	472270	438772	413472	392288	366022	355023	332461	302757	292832	263114

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
PM2.5	2B10a	3673	3531	3688	3467	4531	3954	3359	3441	2928	2118	3007	4017	4175	3358	3738
PM10	2B10a	3714	3570	3721	3501	4570	3993	3389	3479	2960	2128	3023	4036	4194	3374	3755

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Pb	1A3bi	462540005	516291326	584746650	621214613	641661680	664745057	256598888	255593891	264865966	268489585	9177232	8743752	9134279	8914824	8550949	8089525	7509415	6970615	6595577	6433988	6051935	5421626	4886253	4634773	4595729
Pb	1A3biv	65543066	64596305	63983799	62305834	60079193	58905789	21877729	21221648	21507373	21266017	699642	563983	637501	563157	555369	546531	543172	569937	568915	596808	622521	593187	593838	647897	688056
Pb	1A4bi	1472114	1406293	1359211	1329261	1315118	1315699	1319167	1282922	1246679	1209804	1172924	1136040	1099164	1062287	1025413	988533	951662	914772	877890	841010	804194	857443	857842	876526	872903
Pb	2C1	1571380	1335265	1940589	1903749	1963695	1985807	2014093	2050410	1929624	2123370	2269406	1113245	788972	858539	862451	916856	1001414	1046594	1206354	943626	937387	1126986	1126749	1112515	1138029
Cd	1A1a	1347980	1426222	1994290	1362452	977500	1210462	553709	608590	1145468	1185054	825365	1033185	1330570	565966	497465	963267	413017	327369	270241	192459	106064	97169	87126	68764	65179
Cd	1A2d	192720	209084	227279	233526	262724	224766	232037	223441	224761	224965	239183	185583	173029	153209	159763	132677	131120	121075	133074	123909	123715	104904	103064	95470	101217
Cd	1A2e	158406	171375	170078	160627	159893	167732	168296	198204	202272	188984	167915	171120	171608	163375	120653	107847	127921	120285	111005	108361	107989	90661	71245	45957	36760
Cd	1A2f	2918000	3248641	2843247	2781934	3390064	3312063	3091104	3400859	3573744	3555366	3337363	3169363	3616891	3671471	3622732	4129670	3690168	4048760	3770756	2305270	2733983	1508443	1257631	2924424	2985160
Cd	1A2gviii	293768	262862	247622	232790	246963	247675	305221	346341	339639	291604	285249	225569	226853	197294	185447	190515	185468	167586	125867	126796	123816	97865	43176	27388	25390
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	6280580	6690917	6835175	6060982	6343793	6522142	5713905	6160711	6862175	6821578	6215247	6122365	6813070	6018473	5832693	6755399	5754282	5987811	5617442	3958520	4262511	3040764	2661333	4262310	4320607
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	6280580	6690917	6835175	6060982	6343793	6522142	5713905	6160711	6862175	6821578	6215247	6122365	6813070	6018473	5832693	6755399	5754282	5987811	5617442	3958520	4262511	3040764	2661333	4262310	4320607
Hg	1A1a	1375499	1453213	1889353	1466795	1210048	1446240	925504	979314	1339831	1527875	1301582	1412561	1704345	1108081	1064134	1422215	1019474	838252	752841	787773	528552	656637	764531	721014	729846
Hg	1A2d	334450	362335	385294	388362	407190	393330	389289	403297	402468	412985	430538	383852	377534	343488	392641	377366	394228	395562	394757	407153	413359	412079	424384	421348	424261
Hg	1A2f	207433	210726	202081	203992	208307	217586	224315	256183	261612	251134	242988	228593	218690	198113	222451	217856	204356	217117	212423	195796	195317	78918	61274	60574	70283
Hg	5C1biii	647491	647491	647491	647491	647491	647491	723287	841987	633660	559339	381270	173505	152562	125853	95595	1960	1052	4496	5415	5991	6255	3038	2204	2204	2204

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
DIOX	5C1biii	482302	482302	482302	482302	482302	482302	538761	627178	472000	416640	284000	129240	113640	93745	71207	48668	26130	111634	134442	148758	155311	75432	54723	54723	54723
DIOX	5E	4738	4738	680	8009	5092	4599	5311	5216	5621	5966	5760	5633	5251	5227	5535	5866	4621	911	4548	4483	4528	3957	4007	3696
HCB	1A1a	566448	600783	617782	681896	713814	818707	754584	776948	715076	912930	884710	819706	909339	869068	887269	906965	907275	748628	673606	773423	460775	629659	811862	740044	753085
HCB	2C1	1859625	1512756	2373514	2317175	2460923	2401751	2394155	2390060	2111610	2238430	2368488	562042	689509	747314	1406219	1519355	1715650	1924042	1942799	1582308	1453771	1948970	1988014	2109933	2178441
HCB	5C1biii	1205756	1205756	1205756	1205756	1205756	1205756	1346903	1567946	1180000	1041600	710000	323100	284100	234363	178017	121671	65325	279085	336106	371895	388276	188581	136807	136807	136807
HCB	NATIONALTOTAL	3854580	3434145	4318918	4329859	4501746	4551611	4621693	4864915	4137564	4328573	4098319	1838895	2028085	2016788	2741635	2909283	3146388	3502552	3593664	3307873	2511806	3308031	3121100	3341031	3426389
HCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	3854580	3434145	4318918	4329859	4501746	4551611	4621693	4864915	4137564	4328573	4098319	1838895	2028085	2016788	2741635	2909283	3146388	3502552	3593664	3307873	2511806	3308031	3121100	3341031	3426389
PCB	5C1bi	62294102	63539984	64810784	66106999	67429139	68777722	70153276	71556342	72987469	74447218	82103370	89759522	97415675	122941843	248524169	374106495	499688821	625271148	750853474	685018119	171996278	643164358	178055978	410610168	410610168
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	62751058	63974200	65232480	66486232	67809380	69162736	70571000	72024819	73388278	74889559	82861999	90165130	97812852	123349013	248900552	374468929	500067858	625682064	751293691	685470418	172453540	643585033	178427249	411008048	410943361
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	62751058	63974200	65232480	66486232	67809380	69162736	70571000	72024819	73388278	74889559	82861999	90165130	97812852	123349013	248900552	374468929	500067858	625682064	751293691	685470418	172453540	643585033	178427249	411008048	410943361