Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: PT Submission year: 2013

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2011
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2011
PMs: 2000 - 2011

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
NOx	1A1a	56187	59318	68338	61278	58048	65698	51793	50242	53579	56494	47805	46145	53311	40799	40442	47025	37287	35086	26827	23936	14073	16553
NOx	1A3bi	38480	42943	48890	47890	46784	46062	45229	44035	44576	43798	44971	42483	42927	41919	40292	37340	36464	34707	34696	34920	34055	29982
NMVOC	11C	458348	472309	486148	500330	514919	472854	474300	475726	476709	478875	480247	481545	482793	484075	485414	486807	487896	489122	490887	492602	494280	495744
NMVOC	2A7d	2366	2769	2982	3007	3427	3593	3961	4102	4138	4543	4801	5090	5238	5394	5540	5611	6071	6692	6858	6966	7255	7368
NMVOC	2B5a	9530	7554	8828	7642	8747	8656	8302	9842	9527	9588	9733	9864	9986	10236	10414	10538	10568	10670	10834	10703	11066	11204
NMVOC	3D2	9686	9759	9729	9744	9769	9794	9822	9857	9894	9938	9997	10066	10140	10204	10256	10295	10323	10340	10350	10360	10359	10283
SOx	1A2fi	32819	28936	30928	26807	27964	29849	32849	39834	41064	16058	15356	14063	13019	14373	14815	14699	13591	13361	11569	10629	10251	9017
NH3	2B5a	2008	1662	2273	1923	2093	1746	1992	2020	1880	1923	2096	1865	1961	1893	2447	2228	1930	2224	1663	1147	1493	1469
CO	1A2fi	16293	16437	16002	15771	16145	16507	16835	17313	17278	18572	18608	18136	18642	18589	19855	19991	19971	20606	20382	18322	18849	17211
CO	UNFCCCTOTAL	958792	1010185	975105	927992	893224	936967	879045	833452	858966	812071	829662	754935	761451	918557	721298	749219	655188	615348

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
PM2.5	1A4bi	16825	16291	15765	15237	14709	14182	13651	13121	12592	12062	11539	12148
PM2.5	2C1	12084	12047	54	58	77	82	92	99	107	85	81	104
PM10	1A4bi	16825	16291	15765	15237	14709	14182	13651	13121	12592	12062	11539	12148
PM10	2C1	16335	16254	55	59	79	84	94	102	109	87	83	106
TSP	1A4bi	16826	16292	15765	15237	14710	14182	13651	13121	12592	12062	11540	12148
TSP	2C1	28179	28019	68	73	99	106	118	128	137	110	105	134

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Pb	1A2a	2082495	1669423	2591353	2514836	2715622	2640554	2688653	2699991	2426331	2616269	2808684	656590	4540	1306	353	540	7653	14040	11880	6556	7077	7844
Pb	1A2fi	3829641	4215492	8928560	17400185	14900634	10809524	14635641	12111881	12131544	10638177	3666849	7308594	3513832	3292012	3415437	3515700	3513604	3282948	3520045	3433148	3341958	2920898
Pb	1A3bi	463781833	517677417	586316505	622882322	643384209	666529520	257287288	256279531	265576446	269209805	9208271	8777861	9177211	8959998	8600598	8142308	7565268	7030576	6655752	6497014	6116370	5473783
Pb	1A3biv	65719074	64769771	64155620	62473149	60240529	59063974	21936480	21278636	21565129	21323125	694268	554016	619948	542585	529372	516170	508178	529500	527234	551911	575175	544696
Pb	1A4ai	6711007	7381190	7144893	7004510	11976373	13570337	16332039	29689973	37379059	36908580	25479793	32770072	28586501	27192728	27925536	18902256	11878712	9280758	450613	431386	532068	228617
Pb	1A4ci	432887	435367	573290	544156	1611546	1554398	1949640	2362158	2127429	2636890	3834428	4828311	4622432	4710250	4494503	2846803	2212062	1508926	505737	742812	547414	408683
Cd	1A1a	375374	397785	549638	382239	281870	344391	169181	186736	332793	345047	253562	310256	390109	189904	177712	305240	160322	137655	124125	102007	76965	71788
Cd	1A2fi	3215119	3515395	3094876	3018941	3641474	3564818	3401912	3752594	3918652	3852100	3627286	3401722	3849892	3875467	3815006	4325866	3879837	4219791	3900669	2435938	2861610	1627683
Cd	GRIDTOTAL	4393097	4787828	4531130	4244936	4824936	4816728	4492472	4921164	5247829	5187392	4867885	4648066	5198259	4988727	4878723	5473899	4885563	5194725	4876710	3298667	3715141	2430377
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	4393097	4787828	4531130	4244936	4824936	4816728	4492472	4921164	5247829	5187392	4867885	4648066	5198259	4988727	4878723	5473899	4885563	5194725	4876710	3298667	3715141	2430377
Hg	1A1a	1126623	1191738	1539556	1205268	1005639	1193969	779648	828901	1122579	1274675	1104007	1195540	1428376	962203	940586	1232852	914595	773420	709575	733528	522241	616530
Hg	1A1b	164333	155333	182378	191485	243498	242037	238016	239528	277867	272841	246888	260564	275283	270175	275007	228789	228636	218631	268245	176102	140220	104562
Hg	6Ca	647491	647491	647491	647491	647491	647491	723287	841987	633660	559339	381270	173505	152562	125853	95595	5925	3181	13591	10529	28845	9822	9822

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
DIOX	6Ca	5390	5390	5390	5390	5390	5390	6021	7009	5275	4656	3174	1444	1270	1048	796	172	92	394	305	835	284	284