Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: PL Submission year: 2023

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2021
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2021
PMs: 2000 - 2021

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
NOx	1A4bi	59494	74065	74737	83236	72472	72114	74765	66196	54054	55287	44521	49019	52649	52276	54108	59127	65662	60316	63525	64797	73414	65140	68635	66817	61459	60904	64692	65011	70093	60671	62023	61646
NMVOC	2D3a	75770	75911	76029	76100	76152	76190	76210	76202	76176	76148	76130	76106	76060	76005	75971	75937	75873	75855	75895	75957	76679	76695	76685	78016	76562	75108	62280	58832	64044	79447	105682	70204
SOx	1A2e	29389	31444	26405	44891	42531	59012	70179	60074	50861	37135	34672	31966	32372	32530	27011	25372	22574	22346	20119	19361	19090	18861	19211	18192	17908	16030	16557	16904	17029	16698	15562	14754
SOx	1A4bi	138105	180290	179232	197520	166595	165251	177093	150437	119186	124458	95314	105464	120515	120426	127221	143059	162779	147100	158368	161058	184201	160664	169555	163466	149922	147862	156915	155508	158502	131330	134718	126643
CO	1A4ai	392875	402144	412236	430188	331432	323954	266390	243365	163514	160609	135728	104729	161060	160564	156079	156777	169220	152309	163210	182587	210465	185757	181716	171364	150023	145725	152221	145149	129656	104567	102189	125130

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
TSP	2A5a	13903	12465	12332	13318	13885	14880	16087	17739	18115	18910	19736	25509	20649	19528	19865	20591	19843	21446	22654	23334	21065	17631

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Pb	1A2c	1643787	1427695	1085219	2540559	1699608	12617913	12763854	11337248	10080052	9269609	9124642	8670730	8178998	5169004	4993432	4965766	4813769	4915043	7613372	7287369	8164756	8297099	8373027	8440346	8302852	7669191	7986312	8553324	8592142	8500358	7820948	8100553
Pb	1A2gviii	8366389	7690949	6609834	15263656	13481821	14758472	18862023	15802010	11687146	9199069	7582342	6106110	5228634	4885350	4284822	3903688	3568779	3322457	2900704	2346513	2507493	2346919	1917204	1962668	1874866	2069094	1943838	2057566	1985463	2010186	1955245	2009824
Pb	1A3bi	106554576	124301957	131501271	140092935	164400845	165634409	161811935	150513310	124110034	126614423	80213071	6264	5714	5609	5751	5473	6047	6477	6762	7416	7549	7395	7137	6810	6442	6650	7454	8416	9367	9712	9284	9838
Pb	1A3bii	35436270	41338152	45177068	42202118	37540465	30253477	26374238	23921925	20585413	21458390	17307282	1778	1709	1797	1980	1912	1900	1897	1806	1674	1926	1846	1685	1472	1573	1693	1909	2117	1741	1733	1616	1643
Pb	1A4bi	37283440	47286033	49005417	54463979	46278399	45730220	48414816	42380920	32696903	33772524	25441068	28060380	30829307	30591982	31974772	35169964	39881742	36046531	38661294	40037358	45871028	40144500	42395809	41034999	37646538	37081163	39282352	39317010	40614348	33649937	34678388	32921244
Pb	2C1	124778187	93159864	90549870	85886894	97792991	99342300	93244682	101833364	85201984	76633358	94002481	82027240	81161629	86026159	98176495	74165733	87653795	90336304	82957279	59573858	71343575	78579864	78483690	76904656	82514870	88261925	84086910	92066598	89712693	81871117	67625892	71508801
Pb	2C5	36921620	29038395	30821355	35472775	34947125	37961160	38666360	37659900	37781360	36762640	27154945	17697720	22072135	34214575	33861985	37344874	40158143	47461297	50741128	47061679	54273624	50633330	57764096	55622595	53669525	44040975	42016646	40474315	42742475	39206539	40524983	46095382
Pb	2G	346683	519843	693023	782447	1559882	2152796	1760683	1628304	2371125	3004598	3205792	2423723	2404908	2280532	4495266	4288227	3796579	5413829	6568759	4312134	5079034	3780971	4883002	4439424	7252856	5584740	4786466	7142295	9353120	6291561	3278666	3023671
Cd	1A1a	4082326	3902669	3739940	3499584	3270042	1571623	1667866	1562365	1447143	1402400	1237536	1396948	1359419	1496046	1411062	1435704	1500269	1340406	1193401	1209429	1312854	1214849	1243226	1206988	1121767	1234131	1130533	1069653	1024331	985941	993391	1023038
Cd	1A1b	294889	275746	402557	337236	314587	846711	1042569	838353	806192	650575	705879	749897	753682	722061	691269	672937	626426	740762	741207	760876	822055	752715	595597	401666	388258	609042	586087	480239	456103	438629	436921	475536
Cd	1A1c	291526	224959	178391	662123	1573292	1609716	1702878	1484806	1433527	1164633	908231	826658	438408	523994	525687	431212	354614	572392	449637	288755	72770	136144	71907	62804	69980	79120	95126	84440	93309	120464	87714	84372
Cd	1A2d	3238	3621	2918	29286	28322	241335	251621	257544	248421	233637	235497	224860	241909	258742	271329	266168	272846	259441	270664	264555	272763	272573	283817	373612	371163	371577	412734	454394	482445	516086	537197	308790
Cd	1A4bi	973855	988050	1082319	2060636	1939933	1935105	1916121	1840495	1706082	1645580	1532044	1684882	1709199	1687441	1704402	1700884	1806541	1728147	1767167	1795179	2000498	1960437	2014695	2001421	1815467	1845984	1912653	1899916	3537765	3219187	3013954	3049915
Cd	1A4ci	73417	108724	116385	377478	366873	363699	357985	337185	328032	332380	296999	330277	315472	314096	326028	319438	344097	322200	330155	330427	368079	394780	358499	357029	332369	337432	358633	356798	345595	317091	327340	364073
Cd	2B10a	738960	338220	284580	173520	218640	246600	246600	216600	202200	176400	194090	209398	214444	240609	271848	245958	215146	279337	274805	87477	186253	235309	225501	186673	219749	225934	241856	217834	234184	254017	238028	231476
Cd	2C5	638408	500856	530639	613731	603787	655196	658240	643273	641918	632425	456084	292144	353159	564611	568729	625707	673376	799633	857048	791813	912083	844683	963024	923461	879073	708282	675459	642299	674430	627348	661602	754460
Cd	2C6	372804	357644	419967	417008	434981	531342	581284	654792	641000	669476	616758	514328	541846	702931	763660	720636	709883	780275	780906	753999	787779	881632	1019212	1052850	1380050	1364918	1108515	1300318	1240369	1262146	1122234	722268
Hg	1A1c	89000	69120	56404	196761	463802	477147	507235	445982	427043	349972	273412	250164	136119	160235	161870	130970	110748	179789	144343	93663	31542	51448	28510	24354	27002	30438	34338	30831	34850	41476	30893	31792
Hg	1A4bi	605231	763888	769688	867720	745374	736960	772757	667090	529831	544023	420835	465876	511928	507030	530994	586307	659227	599541	638984	650809	745842	654961	689026	667432	610279	601705	636239	632764	671311	563386	571538	548050
Hg	2B10a	977582	779578	430512	416664	406258	450221	438355	416592	379320	284400	277416	203002	238464	276696	298512	297816	213336	142464	102912
Hg	2C1	599522	440302	440196	392982	452664	447352	430313	465135	361522	339080	421827	382483	394153	402564	449143	326316	367683	371571	338839	237759	311625	347083	354065	360581	387424	391454	362954	374698	362340	344765	265180	274092
Hg	2C5	195520	153412	162562	187962	184929	200686	201813	197171	196826	193742	139918	89695	108653	173387	174422	191914	206513	245195	262774	242830	279715	259152	295461	283391	270015	217750	207625	197591	207606	192892	203226	231711
Hg	2C6	660716	630396	673089	745598	788148	832270	825241	865318	890280	890321	809478	800898	728879	660223	657282	569733	552120	635831	646514	552023	490486	547559	668809	671765	616832	575375	536926	502135	491257	542052	510889	507845

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
DIOX	1A4ai	33933	36511	34802	38385	29093	28620	23008	19556	14854	14403	12709	10397	15364	15281	15388	16237	17457	15364	17060	19233	21552	19418	19371	18253	16166	15721	16480	15903	14129	11511	11723	13932
HCB	1A2d	888	1001	780	8979	8637	74891	77517	79291	76473	71904	72579	69223	74431	79574	83550	81594	83912	79724	83401	81598	84070	84069	87516	115212	114435	114481	127159	139963	148557	158853	165376	95096
HCB	2C1	378719	277990	279087	248886	286347	283764	271093	293407	226444	211520	263814	238779	246451	250878	279137	200203	225483	227990	205596	140931	187464	208976	213559	219445	237580	240539	221398	227443	218686	208928	158772	163069
HCB	5C1bi	1010397	901328	855902	846213	849083	861510	874742	874205	934853	772533	994465	958215	999298	793679	588059	704390	687643	627064	602627	663654	968307	1082407	1014946	1079586	687990	808348	1009242	1232516	1263590	196679	164952	208314
PCB	1A1a	145931800	145972140	140330110	140616050	137818900	129801510	131833610	130281160	128799390	125174760	122930640	123347530	120099150	125751350	125714480	127128960	126513540	120681500	123354340	119112056	120205068	131424185	134752914	136815932	132903798	131460230	125969790	126310681	121904044	107312762	98995594	112495638