Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: PL Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
SOx	1A4bi	138105	180290	179232	197520	166595	165251	177093	150437	119186	124458	95314	105464	120515	120426	127221	143059	162779	147100	158368	161058	184201	160664	169555	163466	149922	147862	156915	155508	146315	120529	126270
CO	1A4ai	392875	402144	412236	430188	331432	323954	266390	243365	163514	160609	135728	104729	161060	160564	156079	156777	169220	152309	163210	182587	210465	185757	181716	171364	150023	145725	152221	145149	129656	104567	101933

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
PM10	2A5a	6815	6110	6045	6528	6807	7294	7886	8695	8880	9270	9675	12504	10122	9572	9738	10094	9727	10513	11105	11438	10326
TSP	2A5a	13903	12465	12332	13318	13885	14880	16087	17739	18115	18910	19736	25509	20649	19528	19865	20591	19843	21446	22654	23334	21065
TSP	2A5b	7873	9118	9692	18838	11620	12011	11721	14118	17185	15943	14411	14028	15657	15181	14445	14742	15434	16540	16709	18377	19585

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Pb	1A2c	1643703	1427588	1085097	2540451	1699548	12617820	12763487	11336824	10079459	9269084	9124265	8670083	8178406	5168397	4992872	4965259	4813204	4914497	7612866	7286763	8164230	8296667	8372648	8439886	8302540	7668959	7986100	8553062	8591886	8500021	7452753
Pb	1A2gviii	8365463	7690140	6609178	15262962	13481203	14757726	18860477	15800548	11685979	9198085	7581418	6105289	5227820	4884497	4284012	3902813	3567850	3321629	2899945	2345762	2506758	2346191	1916610	1962120	1874297	2068584	1943287	2056996	1984867	2009540	1976429
Pb	1A3bi	106554576	124301957	131501271	140092935	164400845	165634409	161811935	150513310	124110034	126614423	80213071	6272	5726	5624	5768	5435	6052	6482	6768	7264	7558	7404	7146	6820	6740	6995	7863	8915	9377	9722	9295
Pb	1A3bii	35436278	41338222	45177152	42202128	37540476	30253486	26374246	23921930	20585412	21458386	17307282	1770	1698	1785	1966	1935	1899	1895	1805	1834	1923	1842	1682	1469	1383	1437	1582	1745	1738	1731	1615
Pb	2C1	124778187	93159864	90549870	85886894	97792991	99342300	93244682	101833364	85201984	76633358	94002481	82027240	81161629	86026159	98176495	74165733	87653795	90336304	82957279	59573858	71343575	78579864	78483690	76904656	82514870	88261925	84086910	92066598	89712693	81871117	67625892
Pb	2C5	36921620	29038395	30821355	35472775	34947125	37961160	38666360	37659900	37781360	36762640	27154945	17697720	22072135	34214575	33861985	37344874	40158143	47461297	50741128	47061679	54273624	50633330	57764096	55622595	53669525	44040975	42016646	40474315	42742475	39206539	40524983
Pb	2G	346681	519841	693020	782446	1559882	2152795	1760682	1628303	2371125	3004599	3205792	2423723	2404908	2280533	4495267	4288226	3796580	5413829	6568760	4312131	5079035	3780971	4883003	4439425	7252872	5584756	4786479	7142310	9353121	6291562	3278667
Cd	1A1a	4082326	3902669	3739940	3499584	3270042	1571623	1667866	1562365	1447143	1402400	1237536	1396948	1359419	1496046	1411062	1435704	1500269	1340406	1193401	1209429	1312854	1214849	1243226	1206988	1121767	1234131	1130533	1069653	1024331	985941	993216
Cd	1A1b	294889	275746	402557	337236	314587	846711	1042569	838353	806192	650575	705879	749897	753682	722061	691269	672937	626426	740762	741207	760876	822055	752715	595597	401666	388258	609042	586087	480239	456103	438629	435277
Cd	1A1c	291526	224959	178391	662123	1573292	1609716	1702878	1484806	1433527	1164633	908231	826658	438408	523994	525687	431212	354614	572392	449637	288755	72770	136144	71907	62804	69980	79120	95126	84440	93309	120464	89451
Cd	1A2d	3238	3621	2918	29286	28322	241335	251620	257543	248420	233637	235496	224859	241908	258742	271328	266168	272846	259441	270664	264555	272763	272573	283817	373611	371163	371577	412734	454393	482445	516085	537230
Cd	1A4bi	973855	988050	1082319	2060636	1939933	1935105	1916121	1840495	1706082	1645580	1532044	1684882	1709199	1687441	1704402	1700884	1806541	1728147	1767167	1795179	2000498	1960437	2014695	2001421	1815467	1845984	1912653	1899916	1852242	1696572	1731673
Cd	1A4ci	73417	108724	116385	377478	366873	363699	357985	337185	328032	332380	296999	330277	315472	314096	326028	319438	344097	322200	330155	330427	368079	394780	358499	357029	332369	337432	358633	356798	345595	317091	327522
Cd	2B10a	738960	338220	284580	173520	218640	246600	246600	216600	202200	176400	194090	209398	214444	240609	271848	245958	215146	279337	274805	87477	186253	235309	225501	186673	219749	225934	241856	217834	234184	254017	238028
Cd	2C5	638408	500856	530639	613731	603787	655196	658240	643273	641918	632425	456084	292144	353159	564611	568729	625707	673376	799633	857048	791813	912083	844683	963024	923461	879073	708282	675459	642299	674430	627348	661602
Cd	2C6	372804	357644	419967	417008	434981	531342	581284	654792	641000	669476	616758	514328	541846	702931	763660	720636	709883	780275	780906	753999	787779	881632	1019212	1052850	1380050	1364918	1108515	1300318	1240369	1262146	1122234
Hg	1A1c	89000	69120	56404	196761	463802	477147	507235	445982	427043	349972	273412	250164	136119	160235	161870	130970	110748	179789	144343	93663	31542	51448	28510	24354	27002	30438	34338	30831	34850	41476	31452
Hg	1A4bi	605231	763888	769688	867720	745374	736960	772757	667090	529831	544023	420835	465876	511928	507030	530994	586307	659227	599541	638984	650809	745842	654961	689026	667432	610279	601705	636239	632764	598704	497796	517587
Hg	2B10a	977582	779578	430512	416664	406258	450221	438355	416592	379320	284400	277416	203002	238464	276696	298512	297816	213336	142464	102912
Hg	2C1	599522	440302	440196	392982	452664	447352	430313	465135	361522	339080	421827	382483	394153	402564	449143	326316	367683	371571	338839	237759	311625	347083	354065	360581	387424	391454	362954	374698	362340	344765	265180
Hg	2C5	195520	153412	162562	187962	184929	200686	201813	197171	196826	193742	139918	89695	108653	173387	174422	191914	206513	245195	262774	242830	279715	259152	295461	283391	270015	217750	207625	197591	207606	192892	203226
Hg	2C6	660716	630396	673089	745598	788148	832270	825241	865318	890280	890321	809478	800898	728879	660223	657282	569733	552120	635831	646514	552023	490486	547559	668809	671765	616832	575375	536926	502135	491257	542052	510889
Hg	5C1biii	1370911	1348759	1308583	1327055	1334048	1311954	1304486	1277514	1268124	1218258	1247085	658276	445377	371199	526772	467933	293040	291234	220402	244997	164849	110984	92721	71891	137894	107077	110747	103707	99128	103794	106297

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
DIOX	1A4ai	33933	36511	34802	38385	29093	28620	23008	19556	14854	14403	12709	10397	15364	15281	15388	16237	17457	15364	17060	19233	21552	19418	19371	18253	16166	15721	16480	15903	14129	11511	11700
HCB	1A2d	888	1001	780	8979	8637	74891	77517	79291	76473	71904	72579	69223	74431	79574	83550	81594	83912	79724	83401	81598	84070	84069	87516	115212	114435	114481	127159	139963	148557	158853	165376
HCB	1A4ci	103458	97430	72067	437665	504386	326061	218826	267252	244449	241607	233236	237625	202999	245978	254009	279386	166626	147213	153423	149394	156621	174991	162871	144579	133343	133907	144951	144744	136271	126164	128958
HCB	2C1	378719	277990	279087	248886	286347	283764	271093	293407	226444	211520	263814	238779	246451	250878	279137	200203	225483	227990	205596	140931	187464	208976	213559	219445	237580	240539	221398	227443	218686	208928	158772