Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: PL Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NMVOC	1A3biv	15839	14686	14340	15073	15080	36831	31115	26628	21335	11101	10794	9863	11132	8389	7997	7168	6737	6758	7832	6636	6253	6032	5823	5046	4387	4446	4695	4829	4771
SOx	1A4bi	117823	150833	153522	165943	140241	138261	146634	126113	96788	100439	74960	83195	92269	91301	95835	106528	120869	108677	116252	119079	136508	118063	124527	120020	109859	107719	114111	113463	110654
CO	1A4ai	263132	248121	271282	280895	223576	216320	188307	184283	111579	110299	90247	62591	97083	96459	87992	79564	82202	73760	74527	81547	90781	77199	70544	63990	52458	52337	55506	54510	55030

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
PM10	2A5a	6815	6110	6045	6528	6807	7294	7886	8695	8880	9270	9675	12504	10122	9572	9738	10094	9727	10513	11105
TSP	2A5a	13903	12465	12332	13318	13885	14880	16087	17739	18115	18910	19736	25509	20649	19528	19865	20591	19843	21446	22654
TSP	2A5b	7873	9118	9692	18838	11620	12011	11721	14118	17185	15943	14411	14028	15657	15181	14445	14742	15434	16540	16709

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A2c	1643703	1427588	1085097	2540451	1699548	12617820	12763487	11336824	10079459	9269084	9124265	8670083	8178406	5168397	4992872	4965259	4813204	4914497	7612866	7286763	8164230	8296667	8372648	8439886	8302540	7668959	7986100	8553062	8110938
Pb	1A2gviii	8365463	7690140	6609178	15262962	13481203	14757726	18860477	15800548	11685979	9198085	7581418	6105289	5227820	4884497	4284012	3902813	3567850	3321629	2899945	2345762	2506758	2346191	1916610	1962120	1874297	2068584	1943287	2056996	1894437
Pb	1A3bi	106554576	124301957	131501271	140092935	164400845	165634409	161811935	150513310	124110034	126614423	80213071	7275	6667	6577	6812	6573	6904	7266	7527	7997	8154	7946	7615	7225	7078	7432	8305	9379	9752
Pb	1A3bii	35434885	41336801	45175888	42200970	37539365	30252380	26372991	23920639	20583987	21456705	17305875	410	389	376	386	416	424	398	376	381	455	423	390	363	334	321	330	332	314
Pb	2C1	124778187	93159864	90549870	85886894	97792991	99342300	93244682	101833364	85201984	76633358	94002481	82027240	81161629	86026159	98176495	74165733	87653795	90336304	82957279	59573858	71343575	78579864	78483690	76904656	82514870	88261925	84086910	92066572	89735848
Pb	2C5	36921620	29038395	30821355	35472775	34947125	37961160	38036000	37659900	37781360	36762640	26972505	17697720	22070895	34214575	33861985	37101720	39857039	47079299	50304296	46545835	53622361	49832016	56782808	54515227	52747714	42599218	40368311	38653055	40369801
Pb	2G	346325	519485	692645	782072	1559473	2152365	1760199	1627782	2370574	3003982	3205235	2423176	2404374	2279953	4494608	4287557	3795819	5412982	6567862	4311193	5078026	3779946	4882014	4438499	7251938	5583768	4785380	7141043	9351796
Cd	1A1a	4082326	3902669	3739940	3499584	3270042	1571623	1667866	1562365	1447143	1402400	1237536	1396948	1359419	1496046	1411062	1435704	1500269	1340406	1193401	1209429	1312854	1214849	1243226	1206988	1121767	1234131	1130533	1069653	1008119
Cd	1A1b	294889	275746	402557	337236	314587	846711	1042569	838353	806192	650575	705879	749897	753682	722061	691269	672937	626426	740762	741207	760876	822055	752715	595597	401666	388258	609042	586087	480239	454136
Cd	1A1c	291526	224959	178391	662123	1573292	1609716	1702878	1484806	1433527	1164633	908231	826658	438408	523994	525687	431212	354614	572392	449637	288755	72770	136144	71907	62804	69980	79120	95126	84440	95706
Cd	1A2d	3238	3621	2918	29286	28322	241335	251620	257543	248420	233637	235496	224859	241908	258742	271328	266168	272846	259441	270664	264555	272763	272573	283817	373611	371163	371577	412734	454393	482452
Cd	1A4bi	565586	674129	735094	948657	837269	829076	854573	785690	639546	640919	523282	582073	613255	612256	631915	668229	742216	685551	736151	774481	888960	830750	885225	885879	824319	821390	859953	853431	833940
Cd	2B10a	738960	338220	284580	173520	218640	246600	246600	216600	202200	176400	194090	209398	214444	240609	271848	245958	215146	279337	274805	87477	186253	235309	225501	186673	219749	225934	241856	217834	234184
Cd	2C5	638408	500856	530639	613731	603787	655196	653512	643273	641918	632425	454716	292144	353150	564611	568729	623883	671118	796768	853771	787944	907199	838674	955664	915156	872159	697469	663096	628639	656638
Cd	2C6	372804	357644	377967	417008	434981	531342	629668	654792	641000	669476	518548	514328	542112	702931	763660	719885	702725	766014	760414	726125	749000	830406	952973	974816	1285742	1142234	962049	1055171	1139600
Cd	2G	381743	376292	362326	383071	365850	379016	342186	347256	352447	339778	288599	287325	294916	281476	286545	292811	294962	282092	313824	260471	272471	268623	260909	234361	204955	223540	214745	162682	185498
Cd	5C1biii	448170	440929	427794	433833	436120	428897	426455	417638	414568	398266	407690	215200	145600	164000	214400	235480	176896	202560	196086	228720	221813	266850	276644	279221	334220	336102	391796	418571	478859
Hg	1A1c	89000	69120	56404	196761	463802	477147	507235	445982	427043	349972	273412	250164	136119	160235	161870	130970	110748	179789	144343	93663	31542	51448	28510	24354	27002	30438	34338	30831	35454
Hg	1A4bi	607123	765667	773751	881402	758889	750512	785793	679991	542821	556275	433087	479285	525265	518005	540614	595349	664600	603660	640860	649602	740443	648407	678484	654524	595908	587669	620921	616669	602365
Hg	2B10a	977582	779578	430512	416664	406258	450221	438355	416592	379320	284400	277416	203002	238464	276696	298512	297816	213336	142464	102912
Hg	2C1	599522	440302	440196	392982	452664	447352	430313	465135	361522	339080	421827	382483	394153	402564	449143	326316	367683	371571	338839	237759	311625	347083	354065	360581	387424	391454	362954	374698	362361
Hg	2C5	195520	153412	162562	187962	184929	200686	200238	197171	196826	193742	139462	89695	108650	173387	174422	191306	205760	244240	261682	241540	278086	257149	293008	280622	267710	214146	203504	193038	201675
Hg	2C6	660716	630396	673029	745598	788148	832270	825310	865318	890280	890321	809338	800898	728879	660223	657282	569732	552110	635811	646485	551984	490430	547486	668714	671653	616697	575057	536717	501785	491113
Hg	5C1biii	536589	505112	467938	452103	431928	402589	378239	348816	324809	291436	277245	135213	83951	86078	101441	99234	74546	85361	82633	96386	93475	112454	116581	117668	140845	141638	165108	176391	201798

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	386933	436752	431027	491367	442624	454276	461655	418298	371758	364319	313610	335434	358123	366464	353007	368242	378654	358123	371064	364542	383109	339637	344530	325195	297740	294682	304745	303194	313348
DIOX	NTCOMPL(NECD)	386933	436752	431027	491367	442624	454276	461655	418298	371758	364319	313610	335434	358123	366464	353007	368242	378654	358123	371064	364542	383109	339637	344530	325195	297740	294682	304745	303194	313348
DIOX	NTCOMPLIANCE	386933	436752	431027	491367	442624	454276	461655	418298	371758	364319	313610	335434	358123	366464	353007	368242	378654	358123	371064	364542	383109	339637	344530	325195	297740	294682	304745	303194	313348
HCB	1A4ci	103653	98820	74982	437665	504386	326061	218826	267252	244449	241607	233236	237625	202999	245978	254009	279386	166626	147213	153423	149394	156621	174991	162871	144579	133343	133907	144951	144744	137141
HCB	2C1	378719	277990	279087	248886	286347	283764	271093	293407	226444	211520	263814	238779	246451	250878	279137	200203	225483	227990	205596	140931	187464	208976	213559	219445	237580	240539	221398	227443	218686