Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: PL Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
NOx	1A2a	32987	25698	24194	24378	26407	28946	26632	29108	22471	19324	22576	18695	16372	17437	19297	13474	14281	15731	11697	7266	8094	9305	9854	9911	11235	11451	11232	12996
NOx	1A3bii	30181	33000	34288	32986	34602	34262	36526	36124	36657	35430	35680	30068	25636	24956	26474	19443	24683	25950	26819	28222	25075	25139	23348	21314	20841	21230	23973	29948
SOx	1A2a	62239	51194	52338	56255	62858	73479	68850	69172	55095	48258	57032	47099	41610	45277	49282	31900	33986	36316	26476	16268	17452	21468	23414	23782	27724	28972	27852	32479
CO	1A2a	112647	90972	93376	108348	118267	126144	124992	125080	98516	85482	99594	82396	73857	81199	88973	60127	62762	65998	46484	28483	31011	37501	41149	43207	50335	54529	53274	62271
CO	1A4ai	265342	249394	273055	274970	217275	209814	189523	182663	113970	107127	87251	61143	95193	94639	87014	78367	80042	71669	72411	79590	88217	74877	68700	62498	50961	50916	54041	52153

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Pb	1A2a	17871900	14629742	14956901	17990491	19554182	21133858	21088301	20922487	16419279	14177943	16208681	13321997	11824566	12737886	13866882	9421745	9678630	10226970	7171720	4390395	4745704	5735935	6212312	6314683	7327560	7826553	7517484	8800733
Pb	1A2c	1945788	1699604	1223535	3415586	2109873	15539878	16121597	13913529	11836585	10748814	10320099	9863357	9195863	5756322	5467488	5554717	5388667	5363638	8520211	8193100	9151807	9174929	9201695	9361539	9138296	8522727	8912971	9499142
Pb	2C1	124778187	93159864	90549870	85886894	97792991	99342300	93244682	101833364	85201984	76633358	94002481	82027240	81161629	86026159	98176495	74165733	87653795	90336304	82957279	59573858	71343575	78579864	78483690	76904656	82514870	88261925	84086910	92066572
Pb	2C5	36921620	29038395	30821355	35472775	34947125	37961160	38036000	37659900	37781360	36762640	26972505	17697720	22070895	34214575	33861985	37101720	39857039	47079299	50304296	46545835	53622361	49832016	56782808	54515227	52747714	42599218	40368311	38250631
Cd	1A1a	4002684	3790257	3566419	3327857	3137842	1566833	1641099	1561602	1252921	1184813	1052705	1103561	1070856	1150223	1008944	1006597	1018131	929960	797341	818445	885828	871186	918274	905263	845687	855078	741426	709085
Cd	1A1b	281944	262696	386902	321191	297087	822075	1018893	817727	981728	867692	885942	1029702	1034257	1057999	1048026	1036272	1017938	1080101	1067219	1082471	1146436	974855	791424	568186	552159	861384	854033	734316
Cd	1A1c	145549	182745	123382	596230	1473122	1466180	1571314	1478755	1383149	1169236	902370	830585	425815	493544	459179	332388	300923	496921	404624	257339	82754	143759	91451	85226	92862	108540	119659	112445
Cd	1A2a	3161725	2544738	2614200	3068589	3354316	3591401	3515633	3524192	2829089	2455170	2798605	2282595	2032842	2206358	2410614	1621381	1666156	1737486	1201234	732805	787752	951419	1027502	1037682	1200676	1280453	1225785	1430732
Cd	1A2c	344230	295634	213852	582587	361927	2640783	2687634	2343600	2039477	1861353	1781877	1689991	1580924	997066	950466	955907	927648	911242	1427101	1367518	1519133	1521844	1521939	1538367	1497378	1394350	1453330	1544272
Cd	1A2d	64491	71050	56106	190341	154988	816300	819585	867442	689115	629142	544819	528518	483521	480514	465838	448260	386912	304003	251286	272638	320160	352614	328688	354739	345922	337445	297992	271004
Cd	1A2e	1272228	1382619	1233512	2322344	2134328	2716737	3336402	2897892	2405992	1713320	1550329	1394875	1452143	1367862	1250325	1223561	1051648	1021510	870059	842437	834728	811650	815400	773722	759088	695406	713632	729609
Cd	1A2f	3082158	2944089	2754871	3404799	3547401	3168460	3503011	3189272	2714236	2387882	2041467	1528587	1268058	1170851	1217442	1112920	1134053	1527671	1246262	905187	952530	1140141	888442	763946	766020	713092	609370	695593
Cd	1A4bi	630915	744125	809622	1024132	917935	914780	931459	864968	716488	711575	589639	651786	679381	678489	698214	738668	814520	754589	804572	845282	966594	901969	959178	960726	892947	890747	935743	927615
Cd	1B1b	675800	567800	553300	513750	572750	578900	516950	526750	487300	418400	448600	447300	436150	505600	504850	420200	480650	508400	503750	354550	492200	468850	444650	468000	6993	3400	3305	3046
Cd	2B10a	738960	338220	284580	173520	218640	246600	246600	216600	202200	176400	194090	209398	214444	240609	271848	245958	215146	279337	274805	87477	186253	235309	225501	186673	219749	225934	241856	217834
Cd	2C5	638408	500856	530639	613731	603787	655196	653512	643273	641918	632425	454716	292144	353150	564611	568729	623883	671118	796768	853771	787944	907199	838674	955664	915156	872159	697469	663096	625621
Cd	2C6	372804	357644	377967	417008	434981	531342	629668	654792	641000	669476	518548	514328	542112	702931	763660	719885	702725	766014	760414	726125	749000	830406	952973	974816	1285742	1142234	962049	944504
Cd	5C1biii	448170	440929	427794	433833	436120	428897	426455	417638	414568	398266	407690	215200	145600	164000	214400	235480	176896	202560	196086	228720	221813	266850	276644	279221	334220	336102	391796	321241
Hg	1A1c	37298	49771	33194	174204	431378	431571	461457	436288	408455	345350	265170	245316	125373	144540	134271	96950	87714	145458	114289	75262	23324	40863	25879	23798	26206	29450	33011	30884
Hg	1A4bi	622050	781594	791053	899028	777837	770570	803193	697204	559384	570772	445531	492016	536841	529201	552185	608289	678005	616614	654077	663858	756854	663386	694249	670684	610581	602532	637373	628934
Hg	2B10a	977582	779578	430512	416664	406258	450221	438355	416592	379320	284400	277416	203002	238464	276696	298512	297816	213336	142464	102912
Hg	2C1	1429845	1071762	1048156	980435	1130436	1130529	1103455	1196243	1006130	935554	1143669	1022007	1023605	1083031	1238003	966052	1119075	1144864	1086087	828773	987863	1090985	1092515	1057844	1105837	1146093	1091750	1186173
Hg	2C6	1057109	1008597	1076811	1192919	1261002	1331533	1320310	1384318	1424280	1424321	1294843	1281339	1166054	1056037	1051278	911198	883010	1016913	1034001	882788	784256	875500	1069412	1074097	985877	919358	858152	802008
Hg	5C1biii	536589	505112	467938	452103	431928	402589	378239	348816	324809	291436	277245	135213	83951	86078	101441	99234	74546	85361	82633	96386	93475	112454	116581	117668	140845	141638	165108	135375

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	324009	340747	339244	376005	345710	358546	353035	337316	292924	284224	251398	263567	285170	296170	276439	280730	293018	285170	291365	288491	302517	279308	284967	274036	256329	255609	260879	259017
DIOX	NTCOMPLIANCE	324009	340747	339244	376005	345710	358546	353035	337316	292924	284224	251398	263567	285170	296170	276439	280730	293018	285170	291365	288491	302517	279308	284967	274036	256329	255609	260879	259017
PCB	1A4ai	126235611	103069458	145205025	121912162	99761594	94504080	95455457	104056192	49413772	44914568	30700479	14558207	30257412	30417179	22283066	10611221	11421295	10402185	8565365	8925957	9304032	8038080	3963500	5148234	3169293	4084993	4435724	3668200
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	749446527	829675333	842736382	914289077	811249509	802970780	791794522	750084360	604844315	606214901	514985147	529680875	565873380	558674957	555826679	557142364	598944546	572662721	582203931	574967824	621461298	596997857	607971700	604048094	564368805	562845132	578051457	578364993
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	749446527	829675333	842736382	914289077	811249509	802970780	791794522	750084360	604844315	606214901	514985147	529680875	565873380	558674957	555826679	557142364	598944546	572662721	582203931	574967824	621461298	596997857	607971700	604048094	564368805	562845132	578051457	578364993