Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: PL Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NOx	1A2a	32987	25698	24194	24378	26407	28946	26632	29108	22471	19323	22576	18695	16372	17437	19297	13474	14281	15730	11697	7266	8094	9305	9854	9911	11235	11451	10510
NOx	1A3bii	29529	32237	33416	32878	33553	33207	35429	35075	35645	34493	35604	30322	26377	26141	28322	21286	26317	28115	28787	30342	29796	30348	28659	26246	26479	26783	31003
NMVOC	1A4ai	15409	15874	14462	16822	13003	12724	10538	9085	7049	6773	6067	4864	6874	6783	6721	6845	6953	6177	6340	6964	7735	6512	6116	5386	4387	4249	4540
SOx	1A2a	62239	51194	52338	56255	62858	73479	68850	69172	52656	45862	54387	44437	38979	42657	46610	29347	31370	33561	23878	13893	15078	18940	20935	21206	25019	26191	23651
CO	1A2a	218449	159793	159744	142146	162582	165673	159906	173386	135074	127542	159377	145508	151149	156482	174352	126198	140594	141586	126613	87911	115744	129767	134764	142280	154892	158720	148809
CO	1A4ai	265204	249281	272941	274861	217187	209694	189354	182437	113675	106787	86903	60693	94644	94036	86388	77751	79470	71080	71769	78908	87460	74170	67972	61810	50354	49461	53346

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A2c	1945776	1699597	1223525	3415576	2109867	15539916	16121601	13913498	11836585	10748702	10320099	9863348	9195834	5756362	5467524	5554717	5388722	5363678	8520175	8193167	9151777	9175062	9201798	9361546	9138363	8523625	8814302
Pb	2C1	124778187	93159864	90549870	85886894	97792991	99342300	93244682	101833364	85201984	76633358	94002481	82027240	81161629	86026159	98176495	74165733	87653795	90336304	82957279	59573858	71343575	78579864	78483690	76904656	82514870	88261925	84086910
Pb	5C1a											101500	910000	1260000	1456000	1505000	1553335	1444590	1533000	1428525	1410500	1431448	1379953	1348533	1752578	1106380	1783575	16777651
Cd	1A1a	4002684	3790257	3566419	3327857	3137842	1566833	1641099	1561602	1252921	1184813	1052705	1103561	1070856	1150223	1008944	1006597	1018131	929960	797341	818445	885828	871186	918274	905263	845687	855078	745675
Cd	1A1b	281944	262696	386902	321191	297087	822075	1018893	817727	981728	867692	885942	1029702	1034257	1057999	1048026	1036272	1017938	1080101	1067219	1082471	1146436	974855	791424	568186	552159	861384	853706
Cd	1A1c	145549	182698	123382	596229	1473095	1466130	1571288	1478732	1383125	1169209	902347	830585	425815	493544	459178	332388	300923	496921	404601	257339	82754	143758	91452	85226	92861	108540	123517
Cd	1A2a	3161705	2544729	2614181	3068580	3354307	3591409	3515633	3524184	2829088	2455145	2798604	2282594	2032836	2206374	2410627	1621382	1666172	1737497	1201228	732810	787749	951433	1027513	1037682	1200684	1280497	1135559
Cd	1A2c	344228	295633	213851	582586	361926	2640789	2687634	2343595	2039477	1861334	1781877	1689990	1580919	997073	950471	955907	927657	911248	1427094	1367528	1519126	1521867	1521956	1538367	1497388	1394397	1441129
Cd	1A2d	64490	71050	56105	190341	154987	816302	819585	867440	689115	629136	544818	528517	483519	480517	465841	448260	386916	304005	251285	272640	320158	352619	328692	354739	345924	337457	295157
Cd	1A2e	1272220	1382614	1233503	2322337	2134323	2716743	3336402	2897886	2405992	1713302	1550329	1394875	1452138	1367872	1250332	1223561	1051659	1021517	870055	842443	834725	811662	815409	773722	759093	695430	706970
Cd	1A2f	3082139	2944078	2754851	3404790	3547392	3168467	3503012	3189265	2714236	2387857	2041467	1528586	1268053	1170860	1217449	1112920	1134065	1527680	1246256	905194	952526	1140158	888451	763946	795955	734639	660571
Cd	1A4bi	630915	744125	809622	1024132	917935	914780	931459	864968	716488	711575	589639	651786	679381	678489	698214	738668	814520	754589	804572	845282	966594	901969	959178	960726	892947	882103	938136
Cd	1B1b	686936	573404	556419	514086	572806	578950	517000	526800	492350	423800	448609	447716	439395	511597	510696	420207	480666	508387	503770	354566	486901	468839	444552	467981	6993	3400	3305
Cd	2B10a	738960	338220	284580	173520	218640	246600	246600	216600	202200	176400	194090	209398	214444	240609	271848	245958	215146	279337	274805	87477	186253	235309	225501	186673	219749	225934	241856
Cd	5C1a											8700	78000	108000	124800	129000	133143	123822	131400	122445	120900	122696	118282	115589	150221	94833	152878	1438084
Hg	1A1c	37298	49770	33194	174204	431370	431562	461449	436288	408454	345343	265169	245316	125373	144540	134266	96950	87714	145458	114289	75262	23324	40858	25879	23798	26206	29450	34080
Hg	1A2b	1299557	1211352	1283372	1433769	1506102	1599927	1592919	1652222	1688861	1687993	1500424	1441414	1340882	1298272	1292737	1168676	1154679	1325282	1356408	1181349	1119642	1191472	1418979	1593449	1870724	2669799	2080466
Hg	1A2f	213535	218023	196343	281232	281873	274426	319779	283565	236289	205409	170323	129941	107770	95913	98740	97058	96228	132665	113354	87558	92620	110029	85577	480901	380759	515616	483847
Hg	1A4bi	622050	781594	791053	899028	777837	770570	803193	697204	559384	570772	445531	492016	536841	529201	552185	608289	678005	616614	654077	663858	756854	663386	694249	670684	610581	600732	638203
Hg	5C1a											3190	28600	39600	45760	47300	48819	45401	48180	44896	44330	44988	43370	42382	55081	34772	56055	527298

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	1A2a	17782	13019	13020	11646	13333	13458	13005	14054	10974	10330	12805	11646	12040	11622	12916	9310	10353	12040	9284	6437	8481	9491	9800	10224	11077	11266	10496
DIOX	3F	21496	21496	21496	21496	18604	19638	26960	27184	16398	20190	14472	17019	17718	54812	19666	18074	14499	17718	9848	6516	4928	7846	19820	5320	11908	16256	4522
HCB	1A2a	1694448	1244838	1244404	1121026	1282860	1289462	1244230	1338256	1031461	968092	1202815	1092579	1128300	1152624	1280889	921932	1028113	1036249	932564	645543	856002	957615	986191	1022707	1107170	1121119	1039252
PCB	1A4bi	420608800	525754300	505881600	659491900	609722100	604470500	573531200	506321000	398949200	406921800	323315400	364986000	398191400	386376000	391277000	414055300	451923900	427608200	443062800	450013400	534640700	485911200	502677200	504030000	451081000	442483000	453223000
PCB	NATIONALTOTAL	760557244	829960123	842117178	976265492	907185032	893927928	862971786	804891175	640776478	631842759	538698442	557106887	594892306	590611741	595195875	597077515	641821078	612034106	624567972	617318381	706665928	672842022	687487862	692624266	634679878	627305682	634260713
PCB	NTCOMPLIANCE	760557244	829960123	842117178	976265492	907185032	893927928	862971786	804891175	640776478	631842759	538698442	557106887	594892306	590611741	595195875	597077515	641821078	612034106	624567972	617318381	706665928	672842022	687487862	692624266	634679878	627305682	634260713