Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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TIME SERIES

Party: PL      Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key

 

Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
NOx1A3bii2958032299334993383233766333863543335061356003442135547301002611825842281492119126209280052860329929293993001228304258232596327045
NOx3Da15079029302246772722930219333293396635481355213436534325356813436533169356813568139707420994552843654409674349943642470094379240010
NMVOC1A3bi90407109044107173104861113442115915122080123053117806123917102928836517636474769767567710578058746617127771496645545636258184541704644947822
NMVOC1A4ai154091587414462168221300312724105389085704967736067486468746783671968426951617663406964773565126116538643874202
NMVOC1A4ci798312193132931901518840184811880916712155671598212567140431273712424130151313414191123631263011881122591116010281938181157554
NMVOC1B1a14767140271315313048133931370013800138001160011200103331039910370103021000997909522883184357806767376457981770673277269
NMVOC1B2av1153912470145771352214743146441429115268154311775415675145771327313298130391276913147130681319513456131631251512322117461144112110
NMVOC2D3d2280040600509006514079030621856423366165629385622574435785128713475961789168281510270288364104655100287110745110537107720112678120105121750
NMVOCNATIONALTOTAL484110552806566144625771627594616208633096611546571819576314541336524023529635518208534261543275584153552098573541553507570912549174546291534947517431530619
NMVOCNTCOMPLIANCE484110552806566144625771627594616208633096611546571819576314541336524023529635518208534261543275584153552098573541553507570912549174546291534947517431530619
SOx1A1a2164028204989018275381699859163754614732981469755134884512497971114689973130962567884076880680834655817852862606814402590613473988506953478637450331434786403059387831
SOx1A4ci2177232960342183933241536397303769434775313603303023772268952293722272229142388226116240512550025607268332488824983251282373321671
NH33B1a109619102005948138862885965796518499285792869788430376511811967844479608772707726184148823058205877773758987823976369745407221971210
NH33Da15408231201262772899332177354883616837781378233659236550379933659235319379933799342280448274847846483436224631746470500554663042603
NH3NATIONALTOTAL440830405505382729353391358038353037335434341088345907337258318278322351321722303812291372299066320396319341304972291037284042284219273872273155269184267101
NH3NTCOMPLIANCE440830405505382729353391358038353037335434341088345907337258318278322351321722303812291372299066320396319341304972291037284042284219273872273155269184267101
CO1A2a21214415513415530813784115860415812615252116439012681911967814896113561814046114326616034311490012785912933511509480504106616119204123614126792137497134309
CO1A3bii18102720989721846621856223538223651624515923301622736921108021837017561014893212759312031790936107952989549207095976753116814368228649335899659818
CO1A4ai26520424928127294127486121718720969418935418243711367510678786903606939464494036863887775179470710807176978908874607417067972618105035448597
CO1A4ci836681255441350761922302017081980812014861838471742161764871368481525831368391339451375021368011488691294201330001263401315691207561104571016528768482441

HM (Unit = g)
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Pb2C1124778187931598649054987085886894977929919934230093244682101833364852019847663335894002481820272408116162986026159981764957416573387653795903363048295727959573858713435757857986478483690769046568251487089443674
Cd1A1a4002684379025735664193327857313784215668331641099156160212529211184813105270511035611070856115022399532898778210000769300867973418184458858288711869182748746768456871097477
Cd1A1b28194426269638690232119129708782207510188938177279817288676928859421029702103425710579991045106103627210179381080101106721910824711146436974855791424568186552159591063
Cd1A1c14554918269812338259622914730951466130157128814787321383125116920990234783058542581549354433697825619023340049692140460125733982754143758914528522692861112817
Cd1A2a56022565646770433796732749589050996317282172974304069607871051556706048584952107770526442338937222844155014484815449011405214984724596718749024619428760
Cd1A2c411165335672258060536000363111255992324223412237372197408418360201924708183521217360441148213121301711591291158343106150416171921442921163086116916921730555178805817965501758950
Cd1A2d770318067367704175121155495791305738685828123667020620580588490573933530964553356554336497414446492354132284757287671343707391968373742412317415036425395
Cd1A2e151960915698701488507213663621413122633551300707027665402328847169000116746001514737159462715752201487856135773312135891189955985952888888896120902236927169899305910751877248
Cd1A4ai109087097904312092961043176821521789812747047770794411836381457281111183814331327335012289531229296251687225229234458251806277208247283232075223353190535187617
Cd1A4bi25040842760969369973041572873646788360986437387153765961260702425548271800506193015118316261817675178920216764231881702161131916919342027751229950020102652080455204008918450911781998
Cd1A4ci3851884459514118847079141006641804522715434791405775216747488554067586965466566508434468702461913384997310051335257331341358727342722307118299208287749242949
Cd1B1b686936573404556419514086572806578950517000526800492350423800448609447716439395511597510696420207480666508387503770354566486901468839444552454304643047742
Cd2B10a73896033822028458017352021864024660024660021660020220017640019409020939821444424060927184824595821514627933727480587477186253235309225501186673219749225920
Cd2C127628592044319183179117775581992430201119018755002019838172218015658601875505161863115484121684319196071815999591891255195829418868261490351168394818500791827913171818117727791871485
Hg1A1c37298497703319417420443137043156246144943628840845434534326516924531612537314454098277745136788614545811428975262233244085825879237982620630651
Hg1A2b13021631213056128477314326881506170159905615897491650875168799616876571502273144356413430171301235129588611703221156906132797813584581182196112073811932211421102159591918737682755891
Hg1A2f403450383035354281528302521624525601617621549811433089361982316758247229207784195670192456174701172670210453176512129413137908156708123536518853419068454640
Hg1A4ai462474516811460326434354305484305114226243175077145870139483122561121465192419192643199574220582250896218947247740269848303854271560284544261748234405223421
Hg1A4bi690507878813846058967549839766840279816458731300576512606824470207528607579079555484552280593353649353613874636358647125722127651667673645663243606225597610

POP (Unit = mg)
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
DIOX1A2a1709312500125151112512799127661232013263102409656119911090611282107181198085799550112828607600579678902919794291020210058
DIOX3F2149621496214962149618604196382696027184163982019014472170191771854812196661807414499177189848651649287846198205320532016256
HCB1A2a164992512066421208003107379712353771230094118641712761849813509240551149248104508510811671099068122547387861898047298946588888161809182283191900394660597099610494181042010
PCB1A4ai1262356111030694581452050251219121629976159494504080954554571040561924941377244914568307004791455820730257412304171792228306610611221114212951040218585653658925957930403280380803963500514823431692933553468
PCB1A4bi420608800525754300505881600659491900609722100604470500573531200506321000398949200406921800323315400364986000398191400386376000391277000414055300451923900427608200443062800450013400534640700485911200502677200504030000451081000442483000
PCBNATIONALTOTAL8008797398699233738815337661012283906940429577927180086904348911847097715688304467680451992580187157600722937637209753642711423656590186672818616729563028714530823730711398717134411810224794781185616790851766753528807685220386678049638
PCBNTCOMPLIANCE8008797398699233738815337661012283906940429577927180086904348911847097715688304467680451992580187157600722937637209753642711423656590186672818616729563028714530823730711398717134411810224794781185616790851766753528807685220386678049638