Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA for CLRTAP

KCA for NECD

Inv. comparison

Time series

Trend graphs

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TIME SERIES

Party: PL      Submission year: 2013

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2011
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2011
PMs: 2000 - 2011

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
NOx	1A2fi											50802	46101	44767	48139	44968	44513	44755	44056	35597	21501	36366	38649
NMVOC	3D2											45905	45891	45862	45829	45809	45788	45751	45739	45763	45801	45840	46201

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Cd	1A4ai											904876	813742	1345716	1343038	1342624	1418250	1623886	1408848	1580589	1721992	1992626	1691800
Hg	1A2b											1477363	1416395	1319126	1278722	1276482	1154131	1140495	1308923	1341016	1166001	1104744	1175792
Hg	1A2fi											1544209	1393967	1348259	1433367	1324637	1081217	1059866	994117	770320	718800	990613	1106931
Hg	1A4bi											744259	825531	770407	741560	787172	897553	1033161	947694	1021642	1029695	1241948	1024024

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
DIOX	6Cb											30931	29803	31084	31178	18297	37245	19861	15707	16173	12754	12178	12320
DIOX	6D											57646	55017	54692	56567	52124	51358	50299	48219	47497	46223	44425	43404