Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: NO Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NOx	2C2	9280	8107	7790	8715	9765	9968	9729	10286	10746	10707	11114	10659	9814	9258	10570	9741	7002	8086	9253	5926	9392	9516	7997	7715	8755	8332	8106	7610	7049
NMVOC	2D3i	33322	28145	29972	28145	30981	31092	34041	33623	35357	33475	32682	33959	35227	36494	37761	22551	22810	26052	24465	17430	21858	24599	22845	24244	24244	25922	28057	27664	27666
SOx	1A1a	1115	1171	1198	1108	1305	1147	1208	1076	1062	1554	1514	1464	1594	1611	1375	1277	1177	1185	1034	1088	1647	1729	1801	1814	1859	1863	1891	1953	2113
SOx	2A1	584	375	250	488	502	655	773	867	754	643	566	596	470	629	488	713	740	696	629	617	710	628	631	476	499	553	435	536	669
SOx	2B5	4438	3719	3591	3466	3661	4427	4015	3225	2700	2697	2375	1861	2145	1250	1974	1866	1192	997	993	602	1048	978	665	663	724	726	757	815	796
SOx	2C2	12021	9693	7779	9519	9995	10381	9453	9040	8973	9078	9316	7987	6474	6116	7592	6490	4020	4645	5877	3509	5711	6144	5680	5861	6218	5643	5589	5477	5617
SOx	2C3	4307	4094	2997	1846	1612	1544	1669	1807	1845	1653	1392	1414	1545	1510	1639	1697	1869	1613	1455	1250	1356	1460	1308	1241	1199	1267	1311	1222	1296
SOx	2C7c	448	336	248	285	356	438	401	450	434	427	547	520	467	467	570	935	596	623	615	298	489	461	499	700	724	961	741	772	1209
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	49699	42432	36962	35495	35245	34596	33647	31195	29993	29391	27047	25424	23029	23142	24723	23240	21444	19665	19899	14826	18827	18721	17067	17428	17373	16967	15826	15302	16223
SOx	NTCOMPL(NECD)	49699	42432	36962	35495	35245	34596	33647	31195	29993	29391	27047	25424	23029	23142	24723	23240	21444	19665	19899	14826	18827	18721	17067	17428	17373	16967	15826	15302	16223
SOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	49699	42432	36962	35495	35245	34596	33647	31195	29993	29391	27047	25424	23029	23142	24723	23240	21444	19665	19899	14826	18827	18721	17067	17428	17373	16967	15826	15302	16223
NH3	3Da1	4699	4709	4714	4651	4608	4718	4766	4804	4779	4511	4679	4439	4489	4621	4766	4764	4652	4866	4684	3878	3657	4183	4035	4082	3842	4289	4213	4105	4157
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	830851	785102	751044	756385	748426	728801	707329	695478	677339	651257	635308	621966	615258	602976	587362	586839	567745	554088	543393	497041	509667	485480	479366	451513	431602	437909	434340	436623	434325
CO	NTCOMPL(NECD)	830851	785102	751044	756385	748426	728801	707329	695478	677339	651257	635308	621966	615258	602976	587362	586839	567745	554088	543393	497041	509667	485480	479366	451513	431602	437909	434340	436623	434325
CO	NTCOMPLIANCE	830851	785102	751044	756385	748426	728801	707329	695478	677339	651257	635308	621966	615258	602976	587362	586839	567745	554088	543393	497041	509667	485480	479366	451513	431602	437909	434340	436623	434325

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
PM10	2A6	1620	1555	1587	1859	1862	2182	2365	2746	1956	2218	2161	2365	3781	2663	2568	2627	2956	3576	3211
TSP	2A6	3177	3058	3123	3716	3720	4381	4721	5508	3911	4484	4378	4799	7678	5403	5205	5325	6005	7266	6507
TSP	NATIONALTOTAL	67292	66371	66678	63424	60994	63110	61573	63926	60501	58528	60992	59034	62349	55720	53205	52443	52253	53588	52274
TSP	NTCOMPL(NECD)	67292	66371	66678	63424	60994	63110	61573	63926	60501	58528	60992	59034	62349	55720	53205	52443	52253	53588	52274
TSP	NTCOMPLIANCE	67292	66371	66678	63424	60994	63110	61573	63926	60501	58528	60992	59034	62349	55720	53205	52443	52253	53588	52274

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A1a	2024697	2026264	2026427	2026400	2028799	992552	1050666	934492	1096098	623831	422820	305816	148548	149067	46150	70329	76740	69298	69063	49808	64848	58368	103536	56679	59184	46930	58153	67397	67812
Pb	1A2c	55980	56066	38543	35251	55088	43242	59081	108706	95842	95953	75823	54797	42672	47079	42547	56092	52583	43704	32815	40304	48573	58511	62499	250972	420262	388955	258003	138207	197683
Pb	1A2d	178713	191185	174151	175858	292304	289477	330740	272513	259987	247064	252165	309629	339652	425057	430022	410078	496476	386727	404298	379048	424731	363039	284414	239260	153079	140310	120305	140122	119220
Pb	1A2f	230923	293860	349359	376416	436839	447569	440265	504296	498311	304577	257561	119112	159638	101858	48206	22219	12367	3673	116790	157733	251971	216123	223229	237135	218116	243845	234935	208544	247934
Pb	1A3aii(i)	331986	288511	272416	257221	251203	252222	269831	267928	245438	287325	291383	284976	447566	377484	454784	256233	206827	187964	201494	206077	453082	553943	385951	303404	384016	738358	471620	639425	604116
Pb	1A3aii(ii)	1973192	1712363	1615453	1524516	1486557	1491280	1594751	1582503	1447033	1694638	1721437	1685416	2662613	2241927	2704981	1515220	1218583	1105029	1184592	1213240	1018469	1204636	820545	747022	876342	1581498	1007054	1377655	1219992
Pb	1A3bi	145196047	109276171	95809011	62316727	10285714	10039831	218933	50996	51765	53641	53241	57446	60054	62669	67088	70965	77346	87029	92025	96888	106227	109639	115058	118397	122076	125647	131465	126720	121635
Pb	1A3bii	10957869	8418715	7531692	4947540	825602	813371	31052	21298	23969	27505	28549	31680	32341	33014	34548	35715	38517	41140	43307	44073	46922	47204	48187	48428	49080	49708	51913	50951	50617
Pb	1A3di(i)	359033	282970	310220	287470	262654	382966	449490	524079	499654	447342	429928	420447	303065	339678	347022	403624	400235	389658	369380	325879	263554	268032	235526	225448	130249	59028	35271	39155	44963
Pb	1A4ai	46112	33470	26264	25511	24361	24831	29772	26984	17470	19913	22445	80416	102414	128500	98491	141885	171044	155528	187195	189294	49784	42202	66091	134464	210678	166573	222019	216129	213459
Pb	1A4bi	537266	482582	468406	528674	562232	550469	588535	605795	575962	586732	593182	615716	703801	700242	653803	646750	668724	646883	645377	654241	732536	644602	672545	545517	472148	499921	479840	487352	484106
Pb	1A4bii	15283512	11852032	10665860	7067428	1185431	1186076	27710	8787	8910	9019	9098	9259	9366	9477	9600	9685	9808	9845	9883	9923	9965	9966	9996	10016	10056	10093	10166	10219	10276
Pb	2A3	1525000	1525000	1525000	1513000	1146000	1337800	1361800	995200	849300	191800	138000	31400	80300	173300	24600	13100	2400	220	900	350	150	11	250	250	1700	1600	18000	4300
Pb	2B5	576700	576700	576700	567600	631400	655900	581300	571000	637000	506700	441300	472200	410400	164200	191600	167800	119330	162690	114080	35970	70170	29120	31200	57019	45500	52000	31970	26545	75870
Pb	2B6	260030	260030	260030	116830	97430	123230	59930	79830	103530	89630	407930	585130	133500	255200	156300	25800	57100	248700	189440	209750	250000	65200	76300	92900	174800	99200	68600	214900	208400
Pb	2C1	2449000	2449000	2449000	2399000	2749000	2761000	2777121	2773400	2695890	2739750	2628580	2172790	2742980	2707770	3229410	2557930	2600380	2695400	1929800	257600	128700	1069400	591100	743180	467510	1008800	762800	532100	405000
Pb	2C2	1360664	1235710	1308890	1536430	1809900	1249240	1503160	1460860	1819170	1745000	642700	351800	337160	311460	439810	415280	349760	562880	498745	256547	431078	347879	253520	239350	186467	162410	194571	278694	180618
Pb	2C3	595580	575990	566780	537130	513930	489540	494560	519290	492500	495887	502160	486818	468602	440511	405175	445216	162654	301437	227063	205837	206870	188591	226750	191987	198758	202276	174647	237454	216194
Pb	2C7c	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	200000	151000	210000	168000	119000	138000	107000	160000	186000	196000	240000	248000	237000	352000
Pb	2G	436818	447369	455918	485029	419918	733690	694075	854851	1169939	1999424	1735546	1458624	1787898	2088814	1938496	1990482	1623534	196	200	203	191	166	145	136	145	144	132	130	116
Pb	5C1a	2000000	2000000	2000000	2000000	2000000	400000	400000	400000	400000	400000	350000	90000	170000	130000	6000	6000	6000		18060	5000	400000	5700	10001	11200	4000	8901	1901	10	4
Pb	5E	330512	294393	297581	308173	327512	323261	357304	357330	361334	366187	348557	333200	340932	343611	299333	335187	342977	309946	309190	306860	215930	211915	170635	182711	158487	114664	214553	207896	208694
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	188988644	146035529	130492073	90300052	27736422	24958788	13361141	12955875	13588723	12933281	11212508	9856126	10533661	10804981	10961160	9800860	9251587	8217206	7318230	5218601	6038469	6228766	5593368	5756761	5585667	6346910	5789788	5818995	5826921
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	188988644	146035529	130492073	90300052	27736422	24958788	13361141	12955875	13588723	12933281	11212508	9856126	10533661	10804981	10961160	9800860	9251587	8217206	7318230	5218601	6038469	6228766	5593368	5756761	5585667	6346910	5789788	5818995	5826921
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	188988644	146035529	130492073	90300052	27736422	24958788	13361141	12955875	13588723	12933281	11212508	9856126	10533661	10804981	10961160	9800860	9251587	8217206	7318230	5218601	6038469	6228766	5593368	5756761	5585667	6346910	5789788	5818995	5826921
Cd	1A2d	120482	119135	112936	114506	134545	138751	133502	130743	129416	125850	118416	136351	126687	129737	121396	120315	126387	120677	126389	97637	120411	127426	76188	53976	18538	18205	14218	18125	18096
Cd	2A1	700	300	700	700	700	800	800	800	800	800	7100	5300	23480	43390	6800	1200	2690	740	320	220	450	222	230	8090	289	288	88	346	134
Cd	2B5	88200	88200	88200	88100	89000	89500	88100	79400	66400	64100	63990	65170	68740	23300	25990	25410	22460	29300	28270	18210	20670	8440	4160	1000	600	600	470	1121	1050
Cd	2C1	47000	47000	51000	53500	51000	51000	49000	49000	47000	44000	43000	48000	49000	56000	58000	50000	52000	61000	48000	3600	1620	24000	7200	7710	4740	6690	5630	4470	5180
Cd	2C2	253880	224840	232370	288180	308020	184980	255090	236210	309450	280500	69400	38460	33940	12110	21140	8190	53669	14800	20661	6564	37651	34405	14330	15910	13329	21571	20890	19754	17440
Cd	5C1a	100000	100000	100000	100000	100000	10000	10000	10000	10000	10000	60000	1000	700	6700	700	700	700		2150	2000	26000	400	104	500	200	509	210	11	9
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1655681	1525073	1404038	1536430	1522333	1303586	1401702	1339281	1396480	1324493	1054091	965743	942943	902864	829324	777309	823603	755811	738699	593831	732564	690279	591054	542270	463094	509329	474147	488511	508362
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1655681	1525073	1404038	1536430	1522333	1303586	1401702	1339281	1396480	1324493	1054091	965743	942943	902864	829324	777309	823603	755811	738699	593831	732564	690279	591054	542270	463094	509329	474147	488511	508362
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	1655681	1525073	1404038	1536430	1522333	1303586	1401702	1339281	1396480	1324493	1054091	965743	942943	902864	829324	777309	823603	755811	738699	593831	732564	690279	591054	542270	463094	509329	474147	488511	508362
Hg	1A4ai	12892	11571	9982	9704	9348	9157	11884	9212	6956	8990	5890	9168	10730	14389	11709	12842	13292	11351	9844	11926	11318	10127	9438	10983	10952	8037	8453	7922	8049
Hg	2A1	25500	23000	25500	28000	30000	21000	23800	42100	51000	35400	39500	40500	17440	11990	26410	49500	16090	15080	18800	21500	47020	14708	13200	27087	16654	3800	19736	10908	17367
Hg	2A6	6330	6330	6330	6300	6760	6850	7300	7670	7990	8290	8093	6830	6105	5806	10880	16720	17260	7554	9680	4713	4415	4126	4590	4984	4896	4470	3347	2304	3742
Hg	2B10a	71000	69600	59600	60700	61900	58930	65190	86807	21522	8519	1937	714	366	229	9	6	8	17	8	11	12	11	17	9	6	5	10	203	208
Hg	2C1	100100	100100	124100	138100	124100	124100	110100	112100	98100	100100	100100	116100	130100	132100	110100	113100	84100	63000	83000	16110	10055	12900	9800	15300	3400	6700	2500	5400	4100
Hg	5C1a	60000	60000	60000	60000	60000	30000	30000	30000	30000	30000	7000	7000	20000	150000	3200	3300	3300		9460	26000	3400	7000	3402	1600	400	2505	2206	13	6

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
DIOX	5E	2110	2101	2041	2266	2177	2457	2660	2471	2245	2441	2293	2410	2725	2592	2049	2150	2123	1927	1956	1827	2839	1876	2184	2298	2064	1448	2783	3172	3098
HCB	2C3	112078	112078	112078	155574	136436	133400	132956	154898	165772	183769	193059	198923	203682	240147	172660	168145	162577	192388	157709	162298	34498	216480	198515	184296	179656	183922	195526	210623	211692
HCB	2C4	123000000	123000000	123000000	135000000	126000000	83000000	46600000	62000000	53400000	37400000	45000000	49000000	6600000	155000	107500	60000
PCB	1A3bi	157896400	118890304	104250941	67848583	11277838	11017433	351168	124871	128575	149609	157442	184597	213261	243815	289649	341994	419089	532882	603698	671135	779154	837378	907691	956153	1003615	1051296	1111883	1070517	1025649
PCB	1B2c	5479375	5011875	10780000	4576000	7647640	3814800	6474600	7722000	4730000	3386240	2683560	7071680	2806980	1565740	577548	867544	1882679	869206	1539120	1374602	5497532	1882116	2396113	1067936	2147170	1088	596	748	6