Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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TIME SERIES

Party: NO      Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key

 

Indicates a dip in the time series data

 

Indicates a jump in the time series data

 

Indicates time series data with large sigma


MAIN (Unit = Mg)
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
NOx1A3di(i)549223131513638110265539585567333847186231081011444102528680149621041698858833898613068815080078365676057065572
NOx1A4ciii2250920615193651904719995202892267423794245092425522578234402443423639230562202720730197461882220511203442004621416171851321012137
NOx2C292808107779087159765996897291028610746107071111410659981492581057097417002808692535926939295167997771587558332
NMVOC1A3650816199059382578365548052740487694630142392392163578132920298932733224760226352079919382174291583114665136471250511478104749881
SOx1A1c4424514083302472522592814644254844663815064971052681673478450447608554645587547
SOx1A3bi112610861073110110234964683783343992712793061611072330262921222323212224
SOx2A1584375250488502655773867754643566596470629488713740696629617710628631476499553
SOx2B5443837193591346636614427401532252700269723751861214512501974186611929979936021048978665663724726
SOx2C21202196937779951999951038194539040897390789316798764746116759264904020464558773509571161445680586162185643
SOx2C7c448336248285356438401450434427547520467467570935596623615298489461499700724961
SOxNATIONALTOTAL5228243906369363509534874338253319830601300472936627178253172295923347250732403421146201012003115497196821879517303167331649316335
SOxNTCOMPLIANCE5228243906369363509534874338253319830601300472936627178253172295923347250732403421146201012003115497196821879517303167331649316335
CO1A34086973900163721233603963465803272453002942828502590322367352156141967841778971606291442091325171192081098869812788034799127321967226615665638551826

PM (Unit = Mg)
2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
BC1A4cii16319016316015815514213512511510610296898379

HM (Unit = g)
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Pb1A1a20243652025924202601420258292027819989716104809593240610937766211294203393043051480731488744618270586772866823870774544536083054444102262551736264750726
Pb1A2c55219554443634232048541203391350181110628977599691575656547054258947053425355611452380438953283340432488937442462327253017423097399300
Pb1A2d172811188206170082172747292742268334324689273110260866244722253906311079340989426402431312411512497716388090405737380161428518368510289739240041155050142017
Pb1A2f21879926993726717629068730803732700529717534789734809625843222166092581904301018574820422217123683684116730157740251980216135222848234851214908241520
Pb1A317127012412978668511441219476340596152171601487939132418943112873299845532621093297181327964343000403966679449340033702203130774317724632981793295141330313032578543174701283247931559464105338
Pb1A3aii(i)561718487806460393436772426210375854401986399101294972345298350189342760538184453926546821313151244766222270242410248109253183242199220164160509226026414633
Pb1A3aii(ii)174309115126891427086134455413110481154639123467812253161190784139445014164161386828219003318441512224677126702998637889374597509599859910183139723998815776369609047301677560
Pb1A3bi153588522115784397101650520668452861112418210951219234453557685645256701562246056463333660087058774544812019098196034100388110254113790119220122559126273129913
Pb1A3bii113107808702291779485851773618727018667533452724896278692808329137322873298433641352153634239232418024400144907475944792948992493345008450794
Pb1A4bii5582274435331339462682619011438690439660102073189319432013207320732163219322132203220323732443269326932773290329833043312
Pb2A315250001525000152500015130001146000133780013618009952008493001918001380003140080300173300246001310024002209003501501125025017001600
Pb2B557670057670057670056760063140065590058130057100063700050670044130047220041040016420019160016780011933016269011408035970701702912031200570194550052000
Pb2B626003026003026003011683097430123230599307983010353089630407930585130133500255200156300258005710024870018944020975025000065200763009290017480099200
Pb2C1244900024490002449000239900027490002761000277712127734002695890273975026285802172790274298027077703229410255793026003802695400192980025760012870010694005911007431804675101008800
Pb2C21360664123571013088901536430180990012492401503160146086018191701745000642700351800337160311460439810415280349760562880498745256547431078347879253520239350186467162410
Pb2C3595580575990566780537130513930489540494560519290492500495887502160486818468602440511405175445216162654301437227063205837206870188591226750191987198758202276
Pb2C6740007400074000740007400074000740007400074000740007400074000740001533003236006700037150200001780031700348003000030000202003800024400
Pb2C7c198700198700198700198700198700198700198700198700198700198700198700198700198700198700198700200000151000210000168000119000138000107000160000186000196000240000
Pb5E330512294393297581308173327512323261357304357330361334366187348557333200340932343611299333335187342977309946309190306860215930211915170635182711158487114664
PbNATIONALTOTAL186525385143511922127827746882658962527986523700714119015321131807411576206101103498711070786593380402798153452864380374189067176436782283869041594819391490429954131294896429507292449917145576570
PbNTCOMPLIANCE186525385143511922127827746882658962527986523700714119015321131807411576206101103498711070786593380402798153452864380374189067176436782283869041594819391490429954131294896429507292449917145576570
Cd1A2d1210731191441137341154891358931380941344461327141310871278361209821390141292651324261239761231831288661234021292679986412807213273984527542072006421405
Cd1A3bi1632015891155881580415773156331602415783159511590715538163481656016703171041713217439179321786717774183331806018147180631814018169
Cd2A17003007007007008008008008008007100530023480433906800120026907403202204502222308090289288
Cd2B5882008820088200881008900089500881007940066400641006399065170687402330025990254102246029300282701821020670844041601000600600
Cd2C14700047000510005350051000510004900049000470004400043000480004900056000580005000052000610004800036001620240007200771047406690
Cd2C2253880224840232370288180308020184980255090236210309450280500694003846033940121102114081905366914800206616564376513440514330159101332921571
CdNATIONALTOTAL1502155137075712438191370705135319112219141320313125684013180031242926922073891488857271817031755842701919745269680186659516519752625173617156515773477456416126466143
CdNTCOMPLIANCE1502155137075712438191370705135319112219141320313125684013180031242926922073891488857271817031755842701919745269680186659516519752625173617156515773477456416126466143
Hg1A3aii(ii)41434262440243694891526658656011617871106515663656845950586758026093620067266696705475157658769579727862
Hg1A3di(i)4830203613305621903247607476637973787589934898738965764213238931788978087842112542801580758655718162276252
Hg1A4ai1418812342108201090513241122671693313118123021393610432121461280617924148291614617882155424395415047155401358315124168361376913590
Hg1A4ciii2366821476189831842719328195932213222894235142326621653225452366823315229702194421207200381935922016228352335126387232571910116558
Hg2A1255002300025500280003000021000238004210051000354003950040500174401199026410495001609015080188002150047020147081320027087166543800
Hg2A663306330633063006760685073007670799082908093683061055806108801672017260755496804713441541264590498448964470
Hg2B10a710006960059600607006190058930651908680721522851919377143662299681781112112087309206405
Hg2C11001001001001241001381001241001241001101001121009810010010010010011610013010013210011010011310084100630008300016110100551290098001530034006700
Hg2C6810081008100810081008100810081008100810081008100810017300595015301600149016903450345037003240160010001000
Hg2C7c           217023008806600710050006000520042005300610010200980080009500

POP (Unit = mg)
19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
DIOX1A3di(i)38616310645072338159851059060774879071761110597457126476741003641646692574498500
HCB1A4ciii3576333252311633032631734324863609137800388373852436295377053934338882382003664134848333663235237992392073988142986367672950727147
HCB2C311207811207811207815557413643613340013295615489816577218376919305919892320368224014717266016814516257719238815770916229834498216480198515184296179656183922
HCB2C412300000012300000012300000013500000012600000083000000466000006200000053400000374000004500000049000000660000015500010750060000          
PCB1A3bi16702809512597722011061626872794737122087781202826738834414780515062415576616373019173322159325288530030235379943360454921162151268530479951185904893056897998910282391077290
PCB1A3biii1289384612862946140798081575425513599270146477831534331915085575156206581535546614804620156568711561509116116993170284491790750718819952194170291944017018797694191362881948950719653446196962462035627220784081
PCB5E30539652915553277714026387282500315236190222682522174601208095019873001893649179999817063481612697151904614253951331745123809411723801116189111618911161891116189111618911161891116189