Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: NO Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	1A3di(i)	5492	2313	1513	6381	10265	5395	8556	7333	8471	8623	10810	11444	10252	8680	14962	10416	9885	8833	8986	13068	8150	8007	8365	6760	5706	5572
NOx	1A4ciii	22509	20615	19365	19047	19995	20289	22674	23794	24509	24255	22578	23440	24434	23639	23056	22027	20730	19746	18822	20511	20344	20046	21416	17185	13210	12137
NOx	2C2	9280	8107	7790	8715	9765	9968	9729	10286	10746	10707	11114	10659	9814	9258	10570	9741	7002	8086	9253	5926	9392	9516	7997	7715	8755	8332
NMVOC	1A3	65081	61990	59382	57836	55480	52740	48769	46301	42392	39216	35781	32920	29893	27332	24760	22635	20799	19382	17429	15831	14665	13647	12505	11478	10474	9881
SOx	1A1c	442	451	408	330	247	252	259	281	464	425	484	466	381	506	497	1052	681	673	478	450	447	608	554	645	587	547
SOx	1A3bi	1126	1086	1073	1101	1023	496	468	378	334	399	271	279	306	161	107	23	30	26	29	21	22	23	23	21	22	24
SOx	2A1	584	375	250	488	502	655	773	867	754	643	566	596	470	629	488	713	740	696	629	617	710	628	631	476	499	553
SOx	2B5	4438	3719	3591	3466	3661	4427	4015	3225	2700	2697	2375	1861	2145	1250	1974	1866	1192	997	993	602	1048	978	665	663	724	726
SOx	2C2	12021	9693	7779	9519	9995	10381	9453	9040	8973	9078	9316	7987	6474	6116	7592	6490	4020	4645	5877	3509	5711	6144	5680	5861	6218	5643
SOx	2C7c	448	336	248	285	356	438	401	450	434	427	547	520	467	467	570	935	596	623	615	298	489	461	499	700	724	961
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	52282	43906	36936	35095	34874	33825	33198	30601	30047	29366	27178	25317	22959	23347	25073	24034	21146	20101	20031	15497	19682	18795	17303	16733	16493	16335
SOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	52282	43906	36936	35095	34874	33825	33198	30601	30047	29366	27178	25317	22959	23347	25073	24034	21146	20101	20031	15497	19682	18795	17303	16733	16493	16335
CO	1A3	408697	390016	372123	360396	346580	327245	300294	282850	259032	236735	215614	196784	177897	160629	144209	132517	119208	109886	98127	88034	79912	73219	67226	61566	56385	51826

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
BC	1A4cii	163	190	163	160	158	155	142	135	125	115	106	102	96	89	83	79

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A1a	2024365	2025924	2026014	2025829	2027819	989716	1048095	932406	1093776	621129	420339	304305	148073	148874	46182	70586	77286	68238	70774	54453	60830	54444	102262	55173	62647	50726
Pb	1A2c	55219	55444	36342	32048	54120	33913	50181	110628	97759	96915	75656	54705	42589	47053	42535	56114	52380	43895	32833	40432	48893	74424	62327	253017	423097	399300
Pb	1A2d	172811	188206	170082	172747	292742	268334	324689	273110	260866	244722	253906	311079	340989	426402	431312	411512	497716	388090	405737	380161	428518	368510	289739	240041	155050	142017
Pb	1A2f	218799	269937	267176	290687	308037	327005	297175	347897	348096	258432	221660	92581	90430	101857	48204	22217	12368	3684	116730	157740	251980	216135	222848	234851	214908	241520
Pb	1A3	171270124	129786685	114412194	76340596	15217160	14879391	3241894	3112873	2998455	3262109	3297181	3279643	4300040	3966679	4493400	3370220	3130774	3177246	3298179	3295141	3303130	3257854	3174701	2832479	3155946	4105338
Pb	1A3aii(i)	561718	487806	460393	436772	426210	375854	401986	399101	294972	345298	350189	342760	538184	453926	546821	313151	244766	222270	242410	248109	253183	242199	220164	160509	226026	414633
Pb	1A3aii(ii)	1743091	1512689	1427086	1344554	1311048	1154639	1234678	1225316	1190784	1394450	1416416	1386828	2190033	1844151	2224677	1267029	986378	893745	975095	998599	1018313	972399	881577	636960	904730	1677560
Pb	1A3bi	153588522	115784397	101650520	66845286	11124182	10951219	234453	55768	56452	56701	56224	60564	63333	66008	70587	74544	81201	90981	96034	100388	110254	113790	119220	122559	126273	129913
Pb	1A3bii	11310780	8702291	7794858	5177361	872701	866753	34527	24896	27869	28083	29137	32287	32984	33641	35215	36342	39232	41802	44001	44907	47594	47929	48992	49334	50084	50794
Pb	1A4bii	5582274	4353313	3946268	2619011	438690	439660	10207	3189	3194	3201	3207	3207	3216	3219	3221	3220	3220	3237	3244	3269	3269	3277	3290	3298	3304	3312
Pb	2A3	1525000	1525000	1525000	1513000	1146000	1337800	1361800	995200	849300	191800	138000	31400	80300	173300	24600	13100	2400	220	900	350	150	11	250	250	1700	1600
Pb	2B5	576700	576700	576700	567600	631400	655900	581300	571000	637000	506700	441300	472200	410400	164200	191600	167800	119330	162690	114080	35970	70170	29120	31200	57019	45500	52000
Pb	2B6	260030	260030	260030	116830	97430	123230	59930	79830	103530	89630	407930	585130	133500	255200	156300	25800	57100	248700	189440	209750	250000	65200	76300	92900	174800	99200
Pb	2C1	2449000	2449000	2449000	2399000	2749000	2761000	2777121	2773400	2695890	2739750	2628580	2172790	2742980	2707770	3229410	2557930	2600380	2695400	1929800	257600	128700	1069400	591100	743180	467510	1008800
Pb	2C2	1360664	1235710	1308890	1536430	1809900	1249240	1503160	1460860	1819170	1745000	642700	351800	337160	311460	439810	415280	349760	562880	498745	256547	431078	347879	253520	239350	186467	162410
Pb	2C3	595580	575990	566780	537130	513930	489540	494560	519290	492500	495887	502160	486818	468602	440511	405175	445216	162654	301437	227063	205837	206870	188591	226750	191987	198758	202276
Pb	2C6	74000	74000	74000	74000	74000	74000	74000	74000	74000	74000	74000	74000	74000	153300	323600	67000	37150	20000	17800	31700	34800	30000	30000	20200	38000	24400
Pb	2C7c	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	200000	151000	210000	168000	119000	138000	107000	160000	186000	196000	240000
Pb	5E	330512	294393	297581	308173	327512	323261	357304	357330	361334	366187	348557	333200	340932	343611	299333	335187	342977	309946	309190	306860	215930	211915	170635	182711	158487	114664
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	186525385	143511922	127827746	88265896	25279865	23700714	11901532	11318074	11576206	10110349	8711070	7865933	8040279	8153452	8643803	7418906	7176436	7822838	6904159	4819391	4904299	5413129	4896429	5072924	4991714	5576570
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	186525385	143511922	127827746	88265896	25279865	23700714	11901532	11318074	11576206	10110349	8711070	7865933	8040279	8153452	8643803	7418906	7176436	7822838	6904159	4819391	4904299	5413129	4896429	5072924	4991714	5576570
Cd	1A2d	121073	119144	113734	115489	135893	138094	134446	132714	131087	127836	120982	139014	129265	132426	123976	123183	128866	123402	129267	99864	128072	132739	84527	54207	20064	21405
Cd	1A3bi	16320	15891	15588	15804	15773	15633	16024	15783	15951	15907	15538	16348	16560	16703	17104	17132	17439	17932	17867	17774	18333	18060	18147	18063	18140	18169
Cd	2A1	700	300	700	700	700	800	800	800	800	800	7100	5300	23480	43390	6800	1200	2690	740	320	220	450	222	230	8090	289	288
Cd	2B5	88200	88200	88200	88100	89000	89500	88100	79400	66400	64100	63990	65170	68740	23300	25990	25410	22460	29300	28270	18210	20670	8440	4160	1000	600	600
Cd	2C1	47000	47000	51000	53500	51000	51000	49000	49000	47000	44000	43000	48000	49000	56000	58000	50000	52000	61000	48000	3600	1620	24000	7200	7710	4740	6690
Cd	2C2	253880	224840	232370	288180	308020	184980	255090	236210	309450	280500	69400	38460	33940	12110	21140	8190	53669	14800	20661	6564	37651	34405	14330	15910	13329	21571
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1502155	1370757	1243819	1370705	1353191	1221914	1320313	1256840	1318003	1242926	922073	891488	857271	817031	755842	701919	745269	680186	659516	519752	625173	617156	515773	477456	416126	466143
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	1502155	1370757	1243819	1370705	1353191	1221914	1320313	1256840	1318003	1242926	922073	891488	857271	817031	755842	701919	745269	680186	659516	519752	625173	617156	515773	477456	416126	466143
Hg	1A3aii(ii)	4143	4262	4402	4369	4891	5266	5865	6011	6178	7110	6515	6636	5684	5950	5867	5802	6093	6200	6726	6696	7054	7515	7658	7695	7972	7862
Hg	1A3di(i)	4830	2036	1330	5621	9032	4760	7476	6379	7378	7589	9348	9873	8965	7642	13238	9317	8897	8087	8421	12542	8015	8075	8655	7181	6227	6252
Hg	1A4ai	14188	12342	10820	10905	13241	12267	16933	13118	12302	13936	10432	12146	12806	17924	14829	16146	17882	15542	43954	15047	15540	13583	15124	16836	13769	13590
Hg	1A4ciii	23668	21476	18983	18427	19328	19593	22132	22894	23514	23266	21653	22545	23668	23315	22970	21944	21207	20038	19359	22016	22835	23351	26387	23257	19101	16558
Hg	2A1	25500	23000	25500	28000	30000	21000	23800	42100	51000	35400	39500	40500	17440	11990	26410	49500	16090	15080	18800	21500	47020	14708	13200	27087	16654	3800
Hg	2A6	6330	6330	6330	6300	6760	6850	7300	7670	7990	8290	8093	6830	6105	5806	10880	16720	17260	7554	9680	4713	4415	4126	4590	4984	4896	4470
Hg	2B10a	71000	69600	59600	60700	61900	58930	65190	86807	21522	8519	1937	714	366	229	9	6	8	17	8	11	12	11	2087	309	206	405
Hg	2C1	100100	100100	124100	138100	124100	124100	110100	112100	98100	100100	100100	116100	130100	132100	110100	113100	84100	63000	83000	16110	10055	12900	9800	15300	3400	6700
Hg	2C6	8100	8100	8100	8100	8100	8100	8100	8100	8100	8100	8100	8100	8100	17300	5950	1530	1600	1490	1690	3450	3450	3700	3240	1600	1000	1000
Hg	2C7c												2170	2300	880	6600	7100	5000	6000	5200	4200	5300	6100	10200	9800	8000	9500

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
DIOX	1A3di(i)	386	163	106	450	723	381	598	510	590	607	748	790	717	611	1059	745	712	647	674	1003	641	646	692	574	498	500
HCB	1A4ciii	35763	33252	31163	30326	31734	32486	36091	37800	38837	38524	36295	37705	39343	38882	38200	36641	34848	33366	32352	37992	39207	39881	42986	36767	29507	27147
HCB	2C3	112078	112078	112078	155574	136436	133400	132956	154898	165772	183769	193059	198923	203682	240147	172660	168145	162577	192388	157709	162298	34498	216480	198515	184296	179656	183922
HCB	2C4	123000000	123000000	123000000	135000000	126000000	83000000	46600000	62000000	53400000	37400000	45000000	49000000	6600000	155000	107500	60000
PCB	1A3bi	167028095	125977220	110616268	72794737	12208778	12028267	388344	147805	150624	155766	163730	191733	221593	252885	300302	353799	433604	549211	621512	685304	799511	859048	930568	979989	1028239	1077290
PCB	1A3biii	12893846	12862946	14079808	15754255	13599270	14647783	15343319	15085575	15620658	15355466	14804620	15656871	15615091	16116993	17028449	17907507	18819952	19417029	19440170	18797694	19136288	19489507	19653446	19696246	20356272	20784081
PCB	5E	3053965	2915553	2777140	2638728	2500315	2361902	2268252	2174601	2080950	1987300	1893649	1799998	1706348	1612697	1519046	1425395	1331745	1238094	1172380	1116189	1116189	1116189	1116189	1116189	1116189	1116189