Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: NO Submission year: 2016

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2014
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2014
PMs: 2000 - 2014

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
NOx	1A3	98714	96555	97650	98698	96642	97416	96822	101748	102688	104819	96722	89535	85631	85163	85468	87057	88262	90671	81813	76460	72474	66754	61146	55015	46896
NOx	1A3dii	30222	29580	30886	34241	31953	33308	34377	38472	41816	45355	39735	34739	33288	33883	34616	34457	35856	37433	30201	28788	28037	23997	19065	14234	8541
NOx	1A4ciii	22509	20615	19365	19047	19995	20289	22674	23794	24509	24255	22578	23440	24434	23639	23056	22027	20730	19746	18820	20505	20334	20028	21388	17149	13623
NOx	2C2	9280	8107	7790	8715	9765	9968	9729	10286	10746	10707	11114	10659	9814	9258	10570	9741	7002	8086	9253	5926	9392	9516	7997	7715	8755
NMVOC	1A4bi	7317	6585	6411	7282	7754	7563	8074	8366	7980	8147	8315	8685	9897	9826	9207	9196	9187	8979	8927	9159	10240	9003	9400	7581	6522
SOx	1A1c	442	451	408	330	247	252	259	281	464	425	484	466	381	506	497	1052	681	673	478	450	447	608	554	645	587
SOx	1A3bi	1126	1086	1073	1101	1023	496	468	378	334	399	271	279	306	161	107	23	30	26	29	22	22	23	23	21	22
SOx	2A1	584	375	250	488	502	655	773	867	754	643	566	596	470	629	488	713	740	696	629	617	710	628	631	476	499
SOx	2C7c	448	336	248	285	356	438	401	450	434	427	547	520	467	467	570	935	596	623	615	298	489	461	499	700	724
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	52279	43903	36933	35092	34871	33822	33194	30598	30044	29363	27175	25314	22956	23344	25070	24031	21143	20097	20027	15494	19679	18794	17300	16664	16633
SOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	52279	43903	36933	35092	34871	33822	33194	30598	30044	29363	27175	25314	22956	23344	25070	24031	21143	20097	20027	15494	19679	18794	17300	16664	16633
NH3	3Da1	1274	1278	1279	1261	1249	1279	1291	1302	1293	1220	1301	1250	1375	1413	1527	1482	1396	1548	1462	1887	1389	1541	1628	1691	1800
NH3	3F	965	759	413	571	410	508	554	399	418	376	401	316	237	199	223	187	156	148	157	97	112	84	89	78	96
CO	1A4bi	152409	137121	134030	152695	162777	158713	169250	175765	166713	167924	167801	169081	183395	169461	144791	150088	144822	139928	136325	135776	149015	128817	132173	103135	89308
CO	3F	26824	21085	11477	15860	11386	14106	15393	11076	11630	10447	11132	8776	6576	5522	6195	5198	4344	4123	4355	2702	3102	2347	2470	2179	2662

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
BC	1A4cii	163	190	163	160	158	155	142	135	125	115	106	102	96	89	85

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Pb	1A1a	2024365	2025924	2026014	2025829	2027819	989716	1048095	932406	1093776	621129	420339	304305	148073	148874	46182	70586	77286	68238	70774	54453	60830	54444	102262	55201	62676
Pb	1A2c	55219	55444	36342	32048	54120	33913	50180	110628	97759	96914	75655	54705	42589	47053	42534	56113	52380	43895	32833	40432	48893	74424	62327	253017	418978
Pb	1A2d	172811	188206	170082	172747	292742	268334	324689	273110	260866	244722	253906	311079	340989	426402	431312	411512	497716	388090	405737	380161	428518	368510	289739	240041	156419
Pb	1A2f	226800	279329	278192	297694	315632	332372	308634	348750	348167	258755	221673	92598	90447	101871	48211	22222	12369	3684	116731	157740	251981	216135	222848	234850	215160
Pb	1A3	171270124	129786685	114412194	76340596	15217160	14879391	3241894	3112873	2998455	3262109	3297181	3279643	4300040	3966679	4493400	3370220	3130774	3177246	3298179	3295141	3303130	3257854	3174701	2832479	3174349
Pb	1A3aii(i)	561718	487806	460393	436772	426210	375854	401986	399101	294972	345298	350189	342760	538184	453926	546821	313151	244766	222270	242410	248109	253183	242199	220164	160509	227159
Pb	1A3aii(ii)	1743091	1512689	1427086	1344554	1311048	1154639	1234678	1225316	1190784	1394450	1416416	1386828	2190033	1844151	2224677	1267029	986378	893745	975095	998599	1018313	972399	881577	636960	909579
Pb	1A3bi	153588522	115784397	101650520	66845286	11124182	10951219	234453	55768	56452	56701	56224	60564	63333	66008	70587	74544	81201	90981	96034	100879	110254	113790	119220	122559	125604
Pb	1A3bii	11310780	8702291	7794858	5177361	872701	866753	34527	24896	27869	28083	29137	32287	32984	33641	35215	36342	39232	41802	44001	44760	47594	47929	48992	49334	49761
Pb	1A3di(i)	255636	232287	301048	319072	355078	418144	467148	525973	466837	421397	403361	402128	274456	285548	288148	342507	358786	308009	316380	253600	216097	237018	198597	241029	168226
Pb	1A4bii	5582274	4353313	3946268	2619011	438690	439660	10207	3189	3194	3201	3207	3207	3216	3219	3221	3220	3220	3237	3244	3269	3269	3277	3290	3298	3304
Pb	2A3	1525000	1525000	1525000	1513000	1146000	1337800	1361800	995200	849300	191800	138000	31400	80300	173300	24600	13100	2400	220	900	350	150	11	250	250	1700
Pb	2B5	576700	576700	576700	567600	631400	655900	581300	571000	637000	506700	441300	472200	410400	164200	191600	167800	119330	162690	114080	35970	70170	29120	31200	57019	45500
Pb	2B6	260030	260030	260030	116830	97430	123230	59930	79830	103530	89630	407930	585130	133500	255200	156300	25800	57100	248700	189440	209750	250000	65200	76300	92900	174800
Pb	2C1	2449000	2449000	2449000	2399000	2749000	2761000	2777121	2773400	2695890	2739750	2628580	2172790	2742980	2707770	3229410	2557930	2600380	2695400	1929800	257600	128700	1069400	591100	743180	467510
Pb	2C2	1360664	1235710	1308890	1536430	1809900	1249240	1503160	1460860	1819170	1745000	642700	351800	337160	311460	439810	415280	349760	562880	498745	256547	431078	347879	253520	239350	186467
Pb	2C3	595580	575990	566780	537130	513930	489540	494560	519290	492500	495887	502160	486818	468602	440511	405175	445216	162654	301437	227063	205837	206870	188591	226750	191987	198758
Pb	2C6	74000	74000	74000	74000	74000	74000	74000	74000	74000	74000	74000	74000	74000	153300	323600	67000	37150	20000	17800	31700	34800	30000	30000	20200	38000
Pb	2C7c	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	198700	200000	151000	210000	168000	119000	138000	107000	160000	186000	196000
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	186239057	143263112	127580349	88003955	25003444	23426413	11596991	11003545	11260697	9761225	8381868	7549533	7717476	7824477	8356303	7101052	6849903	7533841	6609177	4519866	4693528	5221343	4737253	4906139	4749397
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	186239057	143263112	127580349	88003955	25003444	23426413	11596991	11003545	11260697	9761225	8381868	7549533	7717476	7824477	8356303	7101052	6849903	7533841	6609177	4519866	4693528	5221343	4737253	4906139	4749397
Cd	1A2d	121073	119144	113734	115489	135893	138094	134446	132714	131087	127836	120981	139014	129264	132426	123975	123183	128866	123402	129267	99864	128072	132739	84527	54207	19026
Cd	1A4bi	105553	94830	92294	104752	111440	108729	116111	120163	114754	117061	119303	124648	142213	141511	132606	132575	132276	129656	128494	131963	147754	130275	135138	109038	93872
Cd	2A1	700	300	700	700	700	800	800	800	800	800	7100	5300	23480	43390	6800	1200	2690	740	320	220	450	222	230	8090	289
Cd	2B5	88200	88200	88200	88100	89000	89500	88100	79400	66400	64100	63990	65170	68740	23300	25990	25410	22460	29300	28270	18210	20670	8440	4160	1000	600
Cd	2C1	47000	47000	51000	53500	51000	51000	49000	49000	47000	44000	43000	48000	49000	56000	58000	50000	52000	61000	48000	3600	1620	24000	7200	7710	4740
Cd	2C2	253880	224840	232370	288180	308020	184980	255090	236210	309450	280500	69400	38460	33940	12110	21140	8190	53669	14800	20661	6564	37651	34405	14330	15910	13329
Cd	3F	353901	278181	151424	209246	150224	186104	203083	146130	153435	137836	146867	115788	86766	72854	81733	68574	57310	54399	57460	35642	40932	30961	32587	28742	35127
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1501476	1370153	1243211	1370074	1352529	1221264	1319586	1256115	1317279	1242128	921317	890759	856528	816278	755173	701187	744518	679580	658898	519124	624729	616752	515436	477104	411822
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	1501476	1370153	1243211	1370074	1352529	1221264	1319586	1256115	1317279	1242128	921317	890759	856528	816278	755173	701187	744518	679580	658898	519124	624729	616752	515436	477104	411822
Hg	1A2d	23601	25671	22451	25428	48627	42737	54891	45810	45744	47627	32013	43954	47685	41868	40889	44351	40146	33585	34915	30542	36620	32822	19005	12905	7612
Hg	1A4ai	14188	12342	10820	10905	13241	12267	16933	13118	12302	13936	10432	12146	12806	17924	14829	16146	17882	15542	43954	15047	15540	13583	15124	16836	15570
Hg	1A4bi	31144	27343	23884	24479	24575	24587	28193	26008	26394	26571	22565	24539	28104	29458	25925	23518	24102	22871	20753	21760	25273	21372	20089	17288	14502
Hg	2A6	6330	6330	6330	6300	6760	6850	7300	7670	7990	8290	8093	6830	6105	5806	10880	16720	17260	7554	9680	4713	4415	4126	4590	4984	4896
Hg	2B10a	71000	69600	59600	60700	61900	58930	65190	86807	21522	8519	1937	714	366	229	9	6	8	17	8	11	12	11	2087	309	206
Hg	2C1	100100	100100	124100	138100	124100	124100	110100	112100	98100	100100	100100	116100	130100	132100	110100	113100	84100	63000	83000	16110	10055	12900	9800	15300	3400
Hg	2G	284566	217618	96618	83555	95561	75348	80447	55546	45583	39919	38453	38512	49509	46516	49569	50285	50384	34393	27401	25406	27382	24759	22156	19575	17924
Hg	3F	56302	44256	24090	33289	23899	29607	32309	23248	24410	21928	23365	18421	13804	11590	13003	10909	9117	8654	9141	5670	6512	4926	5184	4573	5588
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1473313	1368104	1236211	920095	1005229	818388	847526	857891	811328	852536	699567	646394	611203	609303	632026	622366	565129	561644	531597	410669	467763	411225	394694	393408	347341
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	1473313	1368104	1236211	920095	1005229	818388	847526	857891	811328	852536	699567	646394	611203	609303	632026	622366	565129	561644	531597	410669	467763	411225	394694	393408	347341

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
DIOX	1A3dii	2137	2092	2197	2449	2279	2380	2437	2724	2955	3235	2799	2427	2345	2406	2469	2469	2587	2734	2322	2373	2494	2366	2166	1834	1544
DIOX	1A4bi	6051	5444	5316	6053	6451	6289	6690	6956	6631	6769	6944	7239	8272	8191	7686	7694	7680	7518	7485	7683	8585	7555	7899	6363	5480
HCB	1A4bi	83925	75553	74076	84650	90349	88056	93757	97636	92905	94972	97720	102001	116417	115700	108819	109365	109069	107217	106437	109433	122451	108164	112435	90462	77952
HCB	2B10a	13400	13400	63400	63400	63400	63400	63400	50310	79500	50096	77000	21230	55200	13240	59370	1128	70000	12700	3710	9870	10000	43000	21000	70000	100000
HCB	2C3	112078	112078	112078	155574	136436	133400	132956	154898	165772	183769	193059	198923	203682	240147	172660	168145	162577	192388	157709	162298	34498	216480	198515	184296	179656
HCB	2C4	123000000	123000000	123000000	135000000	126000000	83000000	46600000	62000000	53400000	37400000	45000000	49000000	6600000	155000	107500	60000
PCB	1A3bi	167028095	125977220	110616268	72794737	12208778	12028267	388344	147805	150624	155766	163730	191733	221593	252885	300302	353799	433604	549211	621512	690151	799511	859048	930568	979989	1021616
PCB	1A3biii	12893846	12862946	14079808	15754255	13599270	14647783	15343319	15085575	15620658	15355466	14804620	15656871	15615091	16116993	17028449	17907507	18819952	19417029	19440170	18725158	19136288	19489507	19653446	19696246	20223088
PCB	5E	3053965	2915553	2777140	2638728	2500315	2361902	2268252	2174601	2080950	1987300	1893649	1799998	1706348	1612697	1519046	1425395	1331745	1238094	1172380	1116189	1116189	1116189	1116189	1116189	1116189