Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: NO Submission year: 2013

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2011
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2011
PMs: 2000 - 2011

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
NOx	1A3biii	24272	24344	25263	23569	23787	24280	24459	25418	24727	24566	23918	23049	22575	22781	23416	25301	25469	25760	24616	21789	19161	17816
NOx	1A3di(i)	26382	22322	27965	29871	32907	40123	44538	54164	51679	47800	47262	47222	37180	36709	34966	39756	39510	35668	33724	26615	20157	136924
NOx	2C2	9280	8107	7790	8715	9765	9968	9729	10286	10746	10707	11114	10659	9814	9258	10570	9741	7002	8086	9253	5926	9392	9516
NMVOC	1A3di(i)	1114	943	1180	1263	1390	1699	1868	2262	2160	2019	1962	1955	1561	1551	1485	1707	1707	1566	1570	1328	1103	8424
NMVOC	3A3	13003	11002	10934	10921	12609	9551	9953	9797	8190	9348	8579	9143	9713	10283	10853	91	33	39	24	20	39	24
SOx	1A1c	442	451	408	330	247	252	259	281	464	425	484	466	381	506	497	1052	681	673	474	447	441	602
SOx	1A3di(i)	9899	9741	12341	13536	14015	13693	15420	18777	14545	12402	10598	12782	6961	8044	7828	8609	5130	5507	6108	4697	4619	32889
SOx	2A1	584	375	250	488	502	655	773	867	754	643	566	596	470	629	488	713	740	696	629	617	710	628
NH3	4D1a	1274	1278	1279	1261	1249	1238	1291	1302	1293	1220	1301	1250	1375	1413	1527	1482	1396	1548	1462	1887	1389	1541
NH3	4F	965	759	413	571	410	508	554	399	419	376	401	316	237	199	223	187	156	148	157	97	112	84
CO	1A3di(i)	1439	1218	1524	1631	1795	2194	2413	2922	2610	2440	2371	2363	1886	1874	1794	2063	2063	1893	1897	1605	1333	10179
CO	4F	23691	18622	10137	14016	10064	12468	13601	9787	10275	9231	9835	7758	5814	4879	5474	4593	3838	3643	3848	2387	2741	2073

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
PM2.5	1A3di(i)	2577	2531	1825	1855	1835	2154	2218	1967	1987	1624	1379	9889
PM10	1A3di(i)	2712	2664	1921	1952	1932	2267	2334	2070	2092	1710	1452	10409
TSP	1A3di(i)	2712	2664	1921	1952	1932	2267	2334	2070	2092	1710	1452	10409

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Pb	1A1a	2024365	2025924	2026014	2025829	2027819	989716	1048095	932406	1093777	621129	420340	304305	148074	148894	46184	70567	77267	68223	70900	54235	60279	53486
Pb	1A2fi	357938	381460	419693	449342	518126	521433	542545	569368	553754	358641	302240	161419	201739	142981	89020	107664	88810	72368	159717	179436	272272	231837
Pb	1A3	169529273	128276172	112987483	74998594	13908434	13727206	2009878	1890503	1810849	1871444	1884374	1896163	2112952	2125532	2272334	2107018	2149283	2288382	2327669	2301808	2291107	2289131
Pb	1A3aii(i)	561718	487806	460393	436772	426210	375854	401986	399101	294972	345298	350189	342760	538184	453926	546821	312007	243808	222270	242260	248180	252961	242070
Pb	1A3aii(ii)	1743091	1512689	1427086	1344554	1311048	1154639	1234678	1225316	1190784	1394450	1416416	1386828	2190033	1844151	2224677	1265011	984688	893745	974301	998445	1017541	972461
Pb	1A3bi	153588522	115784397	101650520	66845286	11124182	10951219	234453	55768	56452	56701	56224	60564	63333	66008	70587	74544	81201	90981	96034	100879	110254	113788
Pb	1A3bii	11310780	8702291	7794858	5177361	872701	866753	34527	24896	27869	28083	29137	32287	32984	33641	35215	36342	39232	41802	44001	44760	47594	47929
Pb	1A3di(i)	255636	232287	301048	319072	355078	418144	467148	525973	466837	421397	403361	402128	274456	285548	288148	342507	358786	308009	316380	253600	214199	1503015
Pb	1A4bii	5582274	4353313	3946268	2619011	438690	439660	10207	3189	3194	3201	3207	3207	3216	3219	3221	3220	3220	3237	3244	3269	3269	3277
Pb	2A7d	1533600	1532500	1531300	1520200	1154900	1348200	1372500	1006500	861500	202200	148300	43990	90390	181390	29300	17700	6739	4460	5140	4602	4375	4560
Pb	2B4	1031000	1031000	1031000	721000	481000	511000	451000	468000	483000	357000	361900	371800	460600	164200	191600	167800	119330	204690	125080	38350	48140	29120
Pb	2B5a	260310	260310	260310	117110	97710	123510	60210	80112	103816	89915	408219	585414	133783	255524	156667	26009	57222	248824	189506	209813	250073	65273
Pb	2C1	2449000	2449000	2449000	2399000	2749000	2761000	2777121	2773400	2695890	2739750	2628580	2172790	2742980	2707770	3229410	2557930	2600380	2695400	1929800	257600	128700	1069400
Pb	2C2	1360664	1235710	1308890	1536430	1809900	1249240	1503160	1460860	1819170	1745000	642700	351800	337160	311460	439810	415280	349760	562880	498745	256547	431078	347879
Pb	2C3	595580	575990	566780	537130	513930	489540	494560	519290	492500	495887	502160	486818	468602	440511	405175	445216	162654	301437	227063	205837	206870	188591
Pb	2C5e	275300	275300	275300	275300	275300	272700	272700	272700	272700	272700	272700	272700	272700	352000	522300	267000	188150	230000	185800	150700	172800	137000
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	186997039	143956119	128164586	88337036	24982066	23441359	11641054	11026010	11238414	9729864	8428544	7565711	7859960	7906069	8444604	7176301	6915423	7638789	6684220	4562440	4704471	5216401
Pb	UNFCCCTOTAL	188737891	145466632	129589297	89679037	26290792	24593544	12873069	12248380	12426020	11120528	9841350	8949190	10047047	9747216	10665670	8436341	7894266	8527653	7653678	5555943	5715564	6182438
Cd	1A2d	121073	119144	113734	115489	135893	138094	134446	132714	131087	127836	114881	132363	122938	132426	123975	123183	128866	123401	129262	99860	128251	131788
Cd	1A3di(i)	25564	23229	30105	31907	35508	41814	46715	52597	46684	42140	40336	40213	27446	28555	28815	34251	35879	30801	31638	25360	21420	150302
Cd	2A1	700	300	700	700	700	800	800	800	800	800	7100	5300	23480	43390	6800	1200	2690	740	320	220	450	222
Cd	2C1	47000	47000	51000	53500	51000	51000	49000	49000	47000	44000	43000	48000	49000	56000	58000	50000	52000	61000	48000	3600	1620	24000
Cd	2C2	253880	224840	232370	288180	308020	184980	255090	236210	309450	280500	69400	38460	33940	12110	21140	8190	53669	14800	20661	6564	37651	34405
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1172984	1113163	1100220	1172488	1210677	1045533	1127818	1118128	1172394	1111977	776537	774778	768277	747498	678002	636442	690426	629677	606431	485422	580551	576316
Cd	UNFCCCTOTAL	1174070	1114296	1101369	1173599	1211995	1046954	1129411	1119728	1174017	1113826	778213	776532	769783	749079	679475	637396	691395	631060	607882	486941	581886	577925
Hg	1A3di(i)	58075	51813	66560	70719	78483	93287	103801	119077	107811	98276	94475	94181	67418	69135	68650	80792	83505	73091	74534	60711	51016	367502
Hg	1A4ai	14188	12342	10820	10905	13241	12267	16933	13118	12302	13936	10432	12146	12806	17924	14829	16146	17882	15542	43954	15058	15540	13153
Hg	2C1	100100	100100	124100	138100	124100	124100	110100	112100	98100	100100	100100	116100	130100	132100	110100	113100	84100	63000	83000	16110	10055	12900
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	1420229	1326377	1213497	888710	982697	790474	817065	835972	788314	831864	677541	629029	598191	598392	619772	612102	556591	552515	522168	404308	458065	404529
Hg	UNFCCCTOTAL	1423412	1329706	1216882	891984	986593	794688	821788	840721	793131	837351	682508	634230	602612	603054	624091	614909	559455	556624	526478	408820	462024	409316

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
DIOX	1A2d	1137	1107	1065	1071	1174	1226	1132	6264	1177	4432	4306	3153	1161	1219	1140	1168	1223	1215	1303	996	1223	1327
DIOX	1A3di(i)	1856	1572	1966	2105	2316	2832	3113	3770	3601	3365	3270	3259	2601	2585	2475	2845	2845	2611	2616	2213	1838	14040
DIOX	1A3dii	2137	2092	2197	2449	2279	2380	2437	2724	2955	3235	2799	2427	2345	2406	2469	2469	2587	2734	2317	2383	2497	2366
DIOX	2A1	184	166	184	184	144	151	351	269	194	44	132	123	230	197	50	42	59	49	127	257	993	185
DIOX	2C3	733	733	733	733	890	751	763	806	1022	1224	1089	1045	1021	1080	1134	1136	1187	1251	1159	1064	1251	1244
DIOX	4F	6838	5375	2926	4045	2905	3599	3926	2825	2966	2664	2839	2239	1678	1408	1580	1326	1108	1051	1111	689	791	598