Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: NL      Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
NOx	1A2c	35935	33982	32028	30075	28121	26167	24775	23382	21990	19004	14279	13165	13086	14950	15284	14637	13901	12947	13111	11527	12240	11954	11328	9886	9476	9008	9380	8989	9038	8782	9147
NOx	1A3di(ii)	22343	21481	20619	19757	18895	18728	19250	23286	19382	18115	19038	20268	18976	18345	17165	16869	16604	16910	16478	12841	14043	15209	16449	15726	15908	16177	15753	16305	16591	14284	14262
NMVOC	1B2aiv	14758	13780	12801	11823	10844	9865	8707	7548	6389	6212	6034	6597	6545	2870	5988	9200	8123	6766	5861	3408	4613	4298	4670	4825	4242	4030	3702	3571	3153	2403	1861
NMVOC	2H3	25340	22804	20269	17733	15198	12663	7885	3281	8401	6002	5943	5550	5443	5450	5142	10205	10211	10689	10194	9073	9815	9833	9895	9616	9801	9911	10115	10470	10532	10421	10035
NMVOC	NTCOMPL(NECD)	607234	571352	525837	503394	468567	436972	409019	375994	379167	358759	339190	310411	294939	288194	268302	207913	268314	271315	266741	267206	278046	274209	266737	262469	248542	256527	252640	253053	246681	243267	184711
SOx	1A2c	20027	18279	16531	14782	13034	11286	10281	9276	8271	5639	2989	4223	3950	3339	4249	3903	4005	3962	3313	2255	2098	2368	2134	1590	1779	1590	1455	1654	1717	1461	1477
SOx	1A2gviii	4818	4447	4076	3706	3335	2964	2968	2972	2976	2124	1865	1478	1511	527	2271	1884	2702	2604	2329	2344	2750	2753	2527	2604	2718	2661	2578	2377	2460	2293	1898
NH3	3B4gi	8265	8880	9744	9705	8852	7950	8190	7544	8934	9504	9048	7906	7796	6502	8047	8563	9168	8660	9246	9708	9540	10149	9914	9245	9474	9538	9455	9321	9260	8748	8489
NH3	3B4gii	4337	4602	5142	4901	4238	4768	4650	4583	4358	4965	4486	4241	5003	3599	3975	3889	3421	3651	3562	3565	3119	3119	2822	2830	2603	2662	2621	2445	2421	2288	2459

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
PM2.5	1A1b	2271	1069	1	2011	241	1216	325	898	1006	390	202	224	134	154	183	181	157	181	180	173	154
PM2.5	1A4ciii	1133	1072	870	774	704	701	659	580	527	519	473	340	261	309	325	317	285	253	242	230	233
PM2.5	1B2aiv	68	1174	1695	48	1160	68	1279	143	5	0	3	2	23	17	10	52	18	4	3	3	1
PM2.5	2C1	1322	1240	1131	1172	1207	1110	1079	1161	1017	931	990	939	768	843	831	818	861	806	791	831	681
PM10	1A1b	3244	1258	1	2779	331	1553	434	1254	1349	545	284	320	189	219	230	218	208	224	232	222	194
PM10	1B2aiv	97	1677	2422	48	1657	97	1280	204	7	0	5	2	23	17	10	52	18	4	3	3	1
PM10	2A6	1038	1266	1820	1058	1061	1045	1047	1049	1051	1068	1075	1139	1066	996	1012	1059	1132	1189	1298	1343	1373
TSP	1A1b	3244	1258	1	2957	392	1722	474	1413	1555	605	387	384	277	242	280	265	279	265	272	255	229
TSP	1B2aiv	97	1686	2672	48	1688	113	1422	251	13	3	11	8	28	22	11	53	18	4	3	3	1
TSP	2A6	1140	1409	1853	1091	1061	1045	1047	1049	1051	1069	1076	1140	1069	999	1028	1072	1139	1196	1302	1378	1401
TSP	2H2	1672	2603	1652	1980	2056	1938	1801	2041	1744	1562	1629	1616	1587	1684	2106	1645	1688	1705	1840	1949	1834
BC	1A3di(ii)	367	382	350	332	305	295	286	287	275	235	254	273	291	274	273	274	263	268	270	229	226
BC	1A4ciii	342	328	269	239	218	216	202	174	154	148	140	109	85	98	97	99	91	80	77	77	82

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Pb	1A1a	16336083	10909823	8479990	6050170	3620304	1559978	1216900	873822	530744	235804	178744	191538	206407	227890	262001	241532	294401	252849	305813	370000	342190	378206	404371	395647	224636	157823	115936	92053	80061	131522	159757
Pb	1A2c	751726	666774	581821	496869	411917	326964	471783	616601	761420	392294	23168	223	353	457	4195	491	155	154	1112148	1404136	2927156	327158	245161	165	147	144	159	174	159	166	195
Pb	1A3aii(i)	1727416	1792898	1871785	1792407	1818983	1843866	1648112	1707175	1584194	1643776	1490375	1373875	1382767	1237199	1090939	1082116	1111966	1098173	1213779	1280552	1201339	1115742	1011651	895528	873009	738030	725245	663755	712372	687438	694422
Pb	1A3bi	230212660	184130253	146395908	123716608	98939337	75194727	39763143	1974753	384972	398871	401047	405469	413898	418696	429602	427220	430449	437362	432611	433856	437589	440641	440812	441166	443512	449578	460776	463254	474108	475474	470184
Pb	1A3bii	10180043	7605460	5591048	4634503	3277473	2248867	1084050	84570	49960	54638	59563	63410	64161	65627	68356	69023	66455	67628	68724	66978	66505	65597	64010	62700	62644	63589	65895	68170	70963	70977	70977
Pb	2A3	7274000	7123000	6972000	6821000	6670000	6519000	5559567	4600133	3640700	3269850	2899000	2560000	1536000		2471630	1367780	1822080	1753000	1541590	1489100	835090	725450	795400	875600	989800	981000	759900	1583100	633658	752234	1575472
Pb	2B10a	2972194	2647692	2323190	1998688	1674186	1349684	1164672	979660	794648	932486	1070324	2076572	2961000	3741304	2449830	2199416	2545286	1675886	666686	261386	236986	295351	257486	205486	191486	193486	202486	204886	206418	202826	202449
Pb	2C3	268430	241924	215418	188912	162406	135900	268367	400833	533300	714800	896300	595182	652500	1019400	680638	246899	166448	305357	263425	111500	139148	140006	78000	47823	49204	46421	46724	47834	46937	103804	112593
Pb	2C6	323938	332305	340672	349038	357405	365772	378736	391699	404663	460251	515839	465548	552000			444760	358590	322590	346270	341930	430870	380650	414030	421310	1808290	1119710	1104750	1035870	422780	465540	443620
Pb	2H3	342443	330880	319318	307755	296193	284630	246253	207877	169500	163245	156990	93000	135900	15000		4000				3607	3974	4000	4278	19059	19761	461061	17064	18964	18124	15124	15118
Cd	1A1a	949248	706869	568673	430478	292275	164963	110819	74319	54962	48414	77854	103698	112457	70151	50502	94120	94103	91778	136922	227133	177757	70662	43246	37426	27304	34120	36251	32253	40822	39626	44138
Cd	1A1b	109830	112659	115487	118316	121144	123973	83543	43113	2682	3991	5300	5466	4136	4000	11235	4100	5505	11490	10410	4473	4440	4476	4479	4379	4494	4537	4405	4416	4359	4410	4122
Cd	2A3												1000			2000	3400	3000	2000					1400	1300	1200	2100	1900	66200	23400	26000	70000
Cd	2B10a	31549	47647	63744	79842	95939	112037	113985	115932	117880	73032	28185	560600	887000	1264000	847700	801910	1035900	574800	866600	751000	1383000	223910	194000	88000	87000	84000	93000	93000	94422	90688	90513
Cd	2C1	686600	638495	590390	542286	494181	446076	494189	542303	590416	499158	407900	627700	917400	705800	692600	660000	687099	906900	730100	686760	826650	674360	426980	353580	207755	173223	180460	150315	90636	41523	34837
Cd	2C3	12160	11918	11676	11434	11192	10950	12000	100000	180500	222300	264100	189796	158000	206500	48771	14323	9396	16474	14635	4300	3600	7260	2400	2038	3749	2159	2173	2225	2183	2130	1981
Hg	1A1a	1932429	1435831	1128319	821148	512773	390949	360685	330421	300157	355693	411229	364967	312096	278857	366456	395444	351177	298283	260660	238926	232121	218928	202154	185344	236846	228718	224218	173487	189538	145438	80129
Hg	1A1b	60493	63252	66012	68772	71531	74291	49756	25222	687	4094	7500	11640	8520	5670	10800	4030	4023	4840	4740	6000	4960	5000	5000	4850	5000	5000	4921	4929	4832	4905	4281
Hg	1A1c	254	220	187	154	120	87	8456	16826	25196	27598	30000	37009	8001	5		1300	100	100	100										11	5	7
Hg	2A1	108940	106940	104940	102940	100940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	52200	12970	12170	10360	5820	3600	17000	3070	3160	990	890	1150	40
Hg	2A6	42																			89987	98817	96248	71261	83958	105530	109058	106042	104803	121304	105476	107517
Hg	2B10a	702161	638281	574402	510523	446644	382764	341843	300921	260000	228000	196000	86700	60000	52000	50010	52200	40000	23000			90	10	20	10	10	100		60
Hg	2C1	388204	380013	371822	363632	355441	347250	235130	123010	10890	50395	89900	124400	124000	124990	213504	209160	199441	243890	257910	238270	189230	246730	188150	173530	59998	74643	99754	90790	99225	103810	75234
Hg	2C5															10	126	15	14	14	10		54725	62157	30400	54000	54160	87040	43180	23750	37600	1620
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	3639974	3030838	2614170	2197582	1779090	1549928	1349605	1144674	941513	1044773	1163852	985418	871014	823308	1007219	1029587	961885	909383	793915	832035	773207	862890	757511	739493	692882	703417	746821	618145	631989	595127	495187
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	3639974	3030838	2614170	2197582	1779090	1549928	1349605	1144674	941513	1044773	1163852	985418	871014	823308	1007219	1029587	961885	909383	793915	832035	773207	862890	757511	739493	692882	703417	746821	618145	631989	595127	495187
Hg	NTCOMPLIANCE	3639974	3030838	2614170	2197582	1779090	1549928	1349605	1144674	941513	1044773	1163852	985418	871014	823308	1007219	1029587	961885	909383	793915	832035	773207	862890	757511	739493	692882	703417	746821	618145	631989	595127	495187

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
DIOX	1A2c	0	0	0	0	0	0	334	667	1001	500	0			5	8	735	11	12	451	1358	3939	665	496	4	4	4	1	2	4	3	2
DIOX	5E	12715	13335	12989	13343	13340	13793	15407	15197	14521	14097	14081	14444	14333	14070	13161	13245	14379	14886	14513	15511	15634	14574	14445	14358	15158	15289	15429	15527	15665	15851	16049
HCB	3Df	21124860	22869754	27414443	31223479	33291323	39255794	31700688	64056182	127606292	99370391	15582414	3287016	21576494	4115412	6386878	1801995	1650748	2069408	1540202	1055720	1066033	1143192	1050372	907485	782545	749133	836855	726840	684312	486145	486145
PCB	2C1	19166736	19583389	20000041	20416694	20833347	21250000	16090833	10931667	5772500	3469583	369	381	388	408	417	428	423	400	406	303	384	385	345	323	33	35	36	37	37	36	33