Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: NL Submission year: 2018

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2016
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2016
PMs: 2000 - 2016

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
NOx	1A2c	35941	33986	32032	30077	28122	26167	24775	23382	21990	19004	14279	13165	13086	14950	15284	14637	13907	12957	13084	11515	12418	11953	11327	9886	9493	9075	9534
NOx	1A3di(ii)	22343	21481	20619	19757	18895	18728	19250	23286	19382	18115	19038	20268	18976	18345	17165	16869	16604	16910	16478	14558	15849	17089	18254	17339	17391	17541	16938
NMVOC	1A4bi	13528	13524	13437	13569	13567	13745	13932	13514	13251	12966	12719	12481	12164	12142	12244	12354	12482	12162	12058	11892	11879	11505	11447	11493	11264	11320	11374
NMVOC	1B2aiv	14758	13780	12801	11823	10844	9865	8707	7548	6389	6212	6034	6597	6545	2870	5988	9200	8123	6766	5861	3408	4613	4298	4670	4825	4242	4030	3702
NMVOC	1B2b	14165	13428	12692	11955	11218	10481	11900	11221	10559	9796	10612	9590	8572	7126	5676	6130	5977	7311	7220	6258	6618	8545	7199	6560	5999	6226	5265
NMVOC	2D3i	18200	17942	17684	17426	17168	16910	16416	16673	16152	16702	14730	14865	13795	15384	15125	14836	15505	15708	15636	15418	15617	15527	15109	14922	14308	14330	14501
NMVOC	2H2	7061	6944	6827	6711	6594	6477	3173	3838	6114	5400	6027	5416	4858	4899	4986	5100	4674	5295	5087	4997	5053	5121	4534	3754	3763	4081	2754
SOx	1A2c	20027	18278	16528	14779	13029	11279	10274	9270	8265	5632	3073	4222	4117	3621	4245	3900	4002	3957	3309	2251	2134	2391	2132	1617	1789	1608	1469
SOx	1A2gviii	4817	4444	4070	3697	3324	2950	2957	2964	2971	2119	1861	1461	1498	508	2255	1856	2528	2452	2177	2195	2561	2592	2439	2567	2700	2634	2554
NH3	3B4gi	8265	8880	9744	9705	8852	7950	8190	7544	8889	9438	8992	7859	7749	6462	7995	8449	9048	8013	8537	8939	8735	8673	8485	7615	7828	7580	7438

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
PM2.5	1A1b	2399	929	1	2011	218	772	303	871	817	335	203	231	135	157	185	181	157
PM2.5	1A4ciii	1130	1070	846	775	702	698	656	574	524	516	470	337	260	306	324	314	290
PM2.5	1B2aiv	97	1676	2421	48	1657	97	1279	204	7	0	5	2	23	17	10	52	18
PM2.5	2B10a	814	863	1059	792	899	879	854	786	566	803	984	810	886	1008	844	798	841
PM10	1A1b	3244	1258	1	2779	331	1553	434	1254	1349	545	284	320	189	219	230	218	208
PM10	1B2aiv	97	1677	2422	48	1657	97	1280	204	7	0	5	2	23	17	10	52	18
PM10	2A6	1038	1266	1820	1058	1061	1045	1047	1049	1051	1068	1075	1069	1068	1068	1073	1073	1071
PM10	2B10a	1179	1168	1441	1077	1182	1176	1173	1047	786	1144	1328	1119	1211	1365	1227	1120	1238
TSP	1A1b	3244	1258	1	2957	392	1722	474	1413	1555	605	387	384	277	242	280	265	279
TSP	1B2aiv	97	1686	2672	48	1688	113	1422	251	13	3	11	8	28	22	11	53	18
TSP	2A6	1140	1409	1853	1091	1061	1045	1047	1049	1051	1069	1076	1071	1071	1070	1089	1086	1079
BC	1A4ciii	341	327	262	239	218	215	201	172	153	147	139	108	84	97	97	98	92

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Pb	1A1a	16335731	10909406	8479554	6049703	3619851	1559507	1218615	877722	536830	234446	178180	189310	205099	225633	261327	240900	293800	252223	305181	369319	341467	377577	403886	395174	224180	157427	117711
Pb	1A2c	751476	666546	581615	496685	411754	326823	474383	621943	769503	396251	23000	67	202	308	4029	324			1112000	1404000	2927000	327000	245000
Pb	1A3	245252580	196406773	156460231	132683874	106203276	81179428	43874808	4464859	2717709	2820103	2544373	2425823	2434293	2260311	2200820	2210202	2249890	2245993	2354432	2439615	2389224	2290654	2177898	2040042	2007973	1915342	1929580
Pb	1A3ai(i)	1825822	1888929	1972608	1888367	1913412	1936636	1738337	1800658	1694083	1765793	1486240	1368562	1366750	1179226	1087162	1108903	1145735	1135467	1241002	1317976	1251454	1153744	1042259	917267	897666	823134	795133
Pb	1A3bi	230212640	184130230	146395886	123716575	98939398	75194792	39763209	1974793	385009	398908	401079	405485	413874	418693	429599	427215	430445	437358	432597	433837	437576	440627	440793	441143	443493	440226	459684
Pb	1A3bii	10180042	7605459	5591047	4634502	3277474	2248869	1084051	84571	49961	54639	59564	63411	64161	65628	68356	69023	66455	67629	68724	66978	66506	65597	64010	62700	62644	63741	66464
Pb	2A3	7274000	7123000	6972000	6821000	6670000	6519000	5559567	4600133	3640700	3269850	2899000	2560000	1536000		2471630	1367780	1822080	1753000	1541590	1489100	835090	725450	795400	875600	989800	981000	759900
Pb	2B10a	2972194	2647692	2323190	1998688	1674186	1349684	1164672	979660	794648	932486	1070324	2076572	2961000	3741304	2449830	2199416	2545286	1675886	666686	261386	236986	295351	257486	205486	191486	193486	202486
Pb	2C3	268430	241924	215418	188912	162406	135900	268367	400833	533300	714800	896300	595182	652500	1019400	680638	246899	166448	305357	263425	111500	139148	140006	78000	47823	49204	46421	46724
Pb	2C6	323938	332305	340672	349038	357405	365772	378736	391699	404663	460251	515839	465548	552000			444760	358590	322590	346270	341930	430870	380650	414030	421310	1808290	1119710	1104750
Pb	2H3	342443	330880	319318	307755	296193	284630	246253	207877	169500	163245	156990	93000	135900	15000		4000				3607	3974	4000	4278	19059	19761	461061	17064
Cd	1A1a	949190	706800	568600	430400	292200	164884	110626	74100	54906	48240	77760	103435	112285	69884	50390	94015	94003	91674	136817	227019	177636	70557	43165	37347	27228	34054	37468
Cd	1A1b	109830	112659	115487	118316	121144	123973	83543	43113	2682	3991	5300	5466	4136	4000	8700	100	2000	7490	6410	1000
Cd	1A2c	22447	22651	22854	23058	23261	23464	62349	101234	140118			7	20	31	371				767000	659000	1282000	95000	71000
Cd	1A4bi	42806	42421	42562	42957	43423	44058	45385	45680	45846	45932	45914	45504	45113	46220	48617	51216	53688	53683	53864	54148	54529	55006	55583	56822	58084	59368	60701
Cd	2B10a	19	11117	22214	33312	44409	55507	44121	32736	21350	24768	28185	559000	876000	1264000	847700	801910	1035900	574800	99600	92000	101000	128910	123000	88000	87000	84000	93000
Cd	2C1	686600	638495	590390	542286	494181	446076	494189	542303	590416	499158	407900	627700	917400	705800	692600	660000	687099	906900	730100	686760	826650	674360	426980	353580	207755	173223	180460
Cd	2C3	12160	11918	11676	11434	11192	10950	12000	100000	180500	222300	264100	189796	158000	206500	48771	14323	9396	16474	14635	4300	3600	7260	2400	2038	3749	2159	2173
Cd	2C6	106133	96392	86651	76910	67169	57429	57288	57147	57006	61924	66843	44106	30000			22780	23200	22010	30190	19300	31080	39540	38950	35180	116720	148630	150150
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	2145657	1851690	1672494	1488827	1307077	1134097	1015976	1104025	1202344	1018507	1010118	1690972	2259478	2417210	1822552	1770426	2029905	1800185	1965547	1873924	2600812	1196353	886870	697889	637462	634780	653179
Hg	1A1a	1923277	1425000	1117000	809000	501000	378709	347689	316669	285649	341117	396585	349073	295815	262626	348940	379032	335533	282023	244252	221223	221038	209280	194716	178087	229848	222649	217723
Hg	1A1b	60493	63252	66012	68772	71531	74291	49756	25222	687	4094	7500	11640	8520	5670	7800	30	1023	1840	740	2000
Hg	1A1c	254	220	187	154	120	87	8456	16826	25196	27598	30000	37009	8001	5		1300	100	100	100
Hg	1A2c	118052	95325	72599	49872	27146	4419	2954	1490	25	32562	65100	4	12	518	472		100	100	11060	6050	6040	9040	7120	1020	150
Hg	1A2gviii	1042	851	659	468	277	86	1012	2019	877			232	49	2302	4		30	36850	8549	8143	10111	13175	18189	58630	36566	42886	32444
Hg	1A3di(i)	31076	29002	29742	30482	31200	31925	32929	34767	36256	37481	39506	38270	36882	35342	31670	34205	35611	37578	51473	43466	43544	46451	44023	40257	42054	46737	41114
Hg	1A4bi	25178	25056	25172	25448	25814	26249	27042	27243	27385	27465	27476	27244	27021	27692	29140	30699	32187	32159	32258	32419	32646	32934	33283	34052	34826	35603	36385
Hg	2A1	108940	106940	104940	102940	100940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	52200	12970	12170	10360	5820	3600	17000	3070	3160	990
Hg	2B10a	702161	638281	574402	510523	446644	382764	341843	300921	260000	228000	196000	86700	60000	52000	50010	52200	40000	23000			90	10	20	10	10	100
Hg	2C1	388204	380013	371822	363632	355441	347250	235130	123010	10890	50395	89900	124400	124000	124990	213504	209160	199441	243890	257910	238270	189230	246730	188150	173530	59998	74643	99754
Hg	2C5															10	126	15	14	14	10		54725	62157	30400	54000	54160	87040
Hg	5C1bv	57130	58832	60534	62236	63938	65640	70853	76067	81280	83070	98250	100650	99950	96000	95000	93000	94060	78340	62240	49500	41050	27070	8590	8840	8780	9537	9600
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	3575968	2966492	2550605	2131863	1714643	1481317	1276284	1074964	871891	977441	1095575	916327	803101	755824	928780	951641	886257	835632	717131	669184	614865	718862	640982	610844	547341	554100	601883

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
DIOX	1A1a	568009	490000	370000	250000	130000	6050	6406	6762	7118	3606	94	342	808	20	818	735	735	994	2776	1228	1156	6473	1168	916	1010	997	1096
DIOX	1A2c	0	0	0	0	0	0	334	667	1001	500	0			5	8	735	11	12	451	1358	3939	665	496	4	4	4	1
DIOX	2B10a	37	30	22	15	8	0	31	61	92	60	29	1027			2											2	2
HCB	1A4bi	66169	65610	65841	66466	67220	68223	70279	70744	71017	71160	71141	70511	69908	71626	75346	79374	83207	83190	83468	83904	84495	85235	86130	88059	90022	92015	94073