Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: NL Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	11C	41091	41659	41032	40478	38424	39695	39145	38971	37401	35790	32827	30760	29043	28765	28494	27704	28066	26703	25771	24819	24771	24262	23543	24807	25010	26366
NOx	1A2c	35941	33986	32032	30077	28122	26167	24775	23382	21990	19004	14280	13167	13087	14950	15284	14637	13907	12958	13084	11515	12418	11953	11327	9886	9493	9074
NOx	1A3biii	113175	116963	122152	118032	106322	102099	99897	94550	91730	90978	90029	85238	84434	84166	84388	84478	86453	85377	82792	72539	69474	66630	59174	51438	42304	37404
NOx	1A3di(ii)	22343	21481	20619	19757	18895	18728	19250	23286	19382	18115	19038	20268	18976	18345	17165	16837	16569	16860	16425	14428	15611	16777	17799	16791	16727	16758
NMVOC	1A4bi	13475	13444	13344	13480	13496	13745	13932	13514	13251	12966	12719	12481	12164	12142	12244	12354	12482	12162	12058	11892	11879	11505	11447	11488	11255	11310
NMVOC	1B2aiv	31672	29575	27478	25381	23285	21188	18401	15615	12829	12060	18444	11320	11208	7125	9459	14550	11978	10688	9748	7381	8576	8308	8580	8692	8047	7863
NMVOC	2B10a	33362	30279	27196	24113	21029	17946	16632	15318	14004	13328	12591	10921	10435	10079	10053	7916	7846	7515	6296	5153	5718	5473	7429	5637	5266	4653
NMVOC	2D3i	15092	14717	14342	13967	13592	13217	12732	12957	12346	12745	10755	10884	9749	11298	10881	10621	11248	11375	11352	11121	11284	11138	10709	10555	9862	9893
NMVOC	2H2	7061	6944	6827	6711	6594	6477	3173	3838	6114	5400	6027	5416	4858	4899	4986	5100	4674	5295	5087	4997	5053	5121	4534	3754	3763	4081
SOx	1A2c	20027	18278	16528	14779	13029	11279	10274	9270	8265	5632	3073	4222	4117	3621	4245	3900	4002	3957	3309	2251	2134	2391	2132	1617	1789	1608
SOx	1A2gviii	4818	4444	4071	3697	3324	2950	2957	2964	2971	2119	1861	1461	1498	508	2255	1856	2528	2452	2177	2195	2561	2592	2439	2567	2700	2634
SOx	1A3di(i)	51740	48300	49529	50758	51906	53154	54792	57595	60039	62140	65451	64985	64334	63563	61060	63816	66868	59576	44048	42695	38387	28121	26821	24680	25727	13204
NH3	3B4gi	9728	10502	11454	11377	10369	9246	9389	8736	10059	10553	10103	8225	8063	6631	8054	8359	8970	8096	8524	8876	8803	8763	8569	7946	8262	8090
CO	1A3	722163	627077	603246	555911	524158	500928	483480	459721	437002	426397	409290	407002	410060	410412	408540	398012	393035	397976	393667	386418	381844	374185	360221	352091	341000	335486
CO	1A3bi	589063	503995	468089	439259	403435	400219	393962	361518	339898	322900	299913	306075	312662	313804	307209	301800	305443	304210	302680	294244	283069	276073	255083	244448	226000	227701
CO	1A3bii	48168	45244	43653	44251	38596	34533	31031	26766	23632	20283	17744	15795	14131	12402	11699	10250	9042	8004	7257	6580	5951	5361	4466	3975	3405	3414
CO	1A4bii	14359	17731	20245	22590	24640	26345	27407	28203	28741	28939	29015	29076	29089	29077	29076	29089	29026	28914	28998	28881	28762	28649	28543	28458	28380	28311

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
PM2.5	1A1b	2399	929	1	2011	218	772	303	871	817	335	203	231	135	157	185	181
PM2.5	1B2aiv	97	1676	2421	48	1657	97	1279	204	7	0	5	2	23	17	10	52
PM2.5	2B10a	814	863	1059	792	899	879	854	786	566	803	984	810	886	1008	844	798
PM10	1A1b	3244	1258	1	2779	331	1553	434	1254	1349	545	284	320	189	219	230	218
PM10	1B2aiv	97	1677	2422	48	1657	97	1280	204	7	0	5	2	23	17	10	52
PM10	2A6	1038	1266	1820	1058	1061	1045	1047	1049	1051	1068	1075	1069	1068	1068	1073	1073
PM10	2B10a	1179	1168	1441	1077	1182	1176	1173	1047	786	1144	1328	1119	1211	1365	1227	1120
TSP	1A1b	3244	1258	1	2957	392	1722	474	1413	1555	605	387	384	277	242	280	265
TSP	1B2aiv	97	1686	2672	48	1688	113	1422	251	13	3	11	8	28	22	11	53
TSP	2A6	1140	1409	1853	1091	1061	1045	1047	1049	1051	1069	1076	1071	1071	1070	1089	1086
TSP	2B10a	1028	2557	2169	2434	2488	2534	2349	2286	2069	1733	2084	1861	1911	2065	2005	1659
TSP	2C1	2034	3201	3098	3966	4035	4077	3856	4134	3653	3190	3403	3148	2849	2636	2519	2591
BC	1A1b	289	115	5	239	22	114	28	77	87	33	16	13	7	8	10	8
BC	1A3dii	192	189	192	216	199	185	178	178	171	163	161	159	161	159	158	158

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A1a	16335731	10909406	8479554	6049703	3619851	1559507	1218615	877722	536830	234446	178180	189310	205099	225633	261327	240900	293800	252223	305181	369319	341467	377577	418205	435267	246874	171098
Pb	1A2c	751476	666546	581615	496685	411754	326823	474383	621943	769503	396251	23000	67	202	308	4029	324			1112000	1404000	2927000	327000	245000
Pb	1A3	245253391	196407578	156460967	132684611	106203882	81179931	43875094	4464858	2717697	2820091	2544372	2425821	2434292	2260310	2200819	2210201	2249888	2245993	2354431	2439611	2389223	2290649	2177893	2039838	2006765	1913381
Pb	1A3ai(i)	1825811	1888918	1972598	1888359	1913401	1936626	1738327	1800647	1694073	1765782	1486240	1368562	1366750	1179226	1087162	1108903	1145734	1135467	1241002	1317973	1251454	1153739	1042254	917263	897647	823103
Pb	1A3bi	230212640	184130230	146395886	123716575	98939398	75194792	39763209	1974793	385009	398908	401079	405485	413874	418693	429599	427215	430445	437358	432597	433837	437576	440627	440793	441143	443493	440226
Pb	1A3bii	10180042	7605459	5591047	4634502	3277474	2248869	1084051	84571	49961	54639	59564	63411	64161	65628	68356	69023	66455	67629	68724	66978	66506	65597	64010	62700	62644	63741
Pb	2A3	7274000	7123000	6972000	6821000	6670000	6519000	5559567	4600133	3640700	3269850	2899000	2560000	1536000		2471630	1367780	1822080	1753000	1541590	1489100	835090	725450	795400	875600	989800	981000
Pb	2B10a	2972194	2647692	2323190	1998688	1674186	1349684	1164672	979660	794648	932486	1070324	2076572	2961000	3741304	2449830	2199416	2545286	1675886	666686	261386	236986	295351	257486	205486	191486	193486
Pb	2C1	55743430	56164144	56584858	57005572	57426286	57847000	49557700	41268400	32979100	25907050	18835000	23011200	26933340	24651520	25419726	22951435	22388739	28840804	23377500	24453700	29861030	17466000	11287530	9452163	3353930	3456264
Pb	2C3	268430	241924	215418	188912	162406	135900	268367	400833	533300	714800	896300	595182	652500	1019400	680638	246899	166448	305357	263425	111500	139148	140006	78000	47823	49204	46421
Pb	2C6	323938	332305	340672	349038	357405	365772	378736	391699	404663	460251	515839	465548	552000			444760	358590	322590	346270	341930	430870	380650	414030	421310	1808290	1119710
Pb	2H3	342443	330880	319318	307755	296193	284630	246253	207877	169500	163245	156990	93000	135900	15000		4000				3607	3974	4000	4278	19059	19761	461061
Cd	1A1a	949190	706800	568600	430400	292200	164884	110626	74100	54906	48240	77760	103435	112285	69884	50390	94015	94003	91674	136817	227019	177636	70557	43459	40418	25705	32480
Cd	1A1b	109830	112659	115487	118316	121144	123973	83543	43113	2682	3991	5300	5466	4136	4000	8700	100	2000	7490	6410	1000
Cd	1A2c	22447	22651	22854	23058	23261	23464	62349	101234	140118			7	20	31	371				767000	659000	1282000	95000	71000
Cd	1A4bi	42806	42421	42562	42957	43423	44058	45385	45680	45846	45932	45914	45504	45113	46220	48617	51216	53688	53683	53864	54148	54529	55006	55583	56789	58017	59290
Cd	2B10a	19	11117	22214	33312	44409	55507	44121	32736	21350	24768	28185	559000	876000	1264000	847700	801910	1035900	574800	99600	92000	101000	128910	123000	88000	87000	84000
Cd	2C1	686600	638495	590390	542286	494181	446076	494189	542303	590416	499158	407900	627700	917400	705800	692600	660000	687099	906900	730100	686760	826650	674360	426980	353580	207755	173223
Cd	2C3	12160	11918	11676	11434	11192	10950	12000	100000	180500	222300	264100	189796	158000	206500	48771	14323	9396	16474	14635	4300	3600	7260	2400	2038	3749	2159
Cd	2C6	106133	96392	86651	76910	67169	57429	57288	57147	57006	61924	66843	44106	30000			22780	23200	22010	30190	19300	31080	39540	38950	35180	116720	148630
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	2145657	1851690	1672494	1488827	1307077	1134096	1015976	1104025	1202344	1018507	1010118	1690971	2259478	2417210	1822552	1770426	2029905	1800185	1965547	1873924	2600812	1196353	887163	700908	635754	632906
Hg	1A1a	1923277	1425000	1117000	809000	501000	378709	347689	316669	285649	341117	396585	349073	295815	262626	348940	379032	335533	282023	244252	221223	221038	209280	196462	172328	231377	227660
Hg	1A1b	60493	63252	66012	68772	71531	74291	49756	25222	687	4094	7500	11640	8520	5670	7800	30	1023	1840	740	2000
Hg	1A1c	254	220	187	154	120	87	8456	16826	25196	27598	30000	37009	8001	5		1300	100	100	100
Hg	1A2c	118052	95325	72599	49872	27146	4419	2954	1490	25	32562	65100	4	12	518	472		100	100	11060	6050	6040	9040	7120	1020	150
Hg	1A2gviii	1042	851	659	468	277	86	1012	2019	877			232	49	2302	4		30	36850	8549	8143	10111	13175	18189	58630	36566	42886
Hg	1A3di(i)	31076	29002	29742	30482	31200	31925	32929	34767	36256	37481	39506	38270	36882	35342	31670	34205	35611	37578	51473	43466	43544	46451	44023	40257	42054	46737
Hg	1A4bi	25178	25056	25172	25448	25814	26249	27042	27243	27385	27465	27476	27244	27021	27692	29140	30699	32187	32159	32258	32419	32646	32934	33283	34033	34786	35556
Hg	2A1	108940	106940	104940	102940	100940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	52200	12970	12170	10360	5820	3600	17000	3070	3160
Hg	2B10a	702161	638281	574402	510523	446644	382764	341843	300921	260000	228000	196000	86700	60000	52000	50010	52200	40000	23000			90	10	20	10	10	100
Hg	2C1	388204	380013	371822	363632	355441	347250	235130	123010	10890	50395	89900	124400	124000	124990	213504	209160	199441	243890	257910	238270	189230	246730	188150	173530	59998	74643
Hg	2C5															10	126	15	14	14	10		54725	62157	30400	54000	54160
Hg	5C1bv	57130	58832	60534	62236	63938	65640	70853	76067	81280	83070	98250	100650	99950	96000	95000	93000	94060	78340	62240	49500	41050	27070	8590	8840	8780	9537
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	3575967	2966491	2550604	2131862	1714642	1481317	1276284	1074964	871891	977441	1095575	916327	803101	755824	928780	951642	886257	835634	717134	669187	614868	718866	642731	605048	548564	558619

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
DIOX	1A1a	568009	490000	370000	250000	130000	6050	6406	6762	7118	3606	94	342	808	20	818	735	735	994	2776	1228	1156	6473	1235	911	1003	995
DIOX	1A2c	0	0	0	0	0	0	334	667	1001	500	0			5	8	735	11	12	451	1358	3939	665	496	4	4	4
HCB	1A4bi	66169	65610	65841	66466	67220	68223	70279	70744	71017	71160	71141	70511	69908	71626	75346	79374	83207	83190	83468	83904	84495	85235	86130	88009	89918	91893