Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA for CLRTAP

KCA for NECD

Inv. comparison

Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: NL      Submission year: 2016

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2014
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2014
PMs: 2000 - 2014

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
NOx	1A2c	35885	33967	32049	30130	28212	26294	24861	23429	21996	19031	14295	13168	13088	14953	15289	14639	13910	12958	13084	11515	12418	11953	11323	9904	9731
NOx	1A3biii	113159	116943	122130	118038	106347	102098	99897	94550	91730	90959	90029	85238	84434	84166	84388	84478	86453	85368	82778	72539	69474	66629	59174	51467	42268
NOx	1A3di(ii)	22343	21481	20619	19757	18895	18728	19250	23286	19382	18115	19038	20268	18976	18345	17165	16837	16569	16860	16425	14428	15611	16777	17799	16791	16727
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL	603100	590440	573827	559853	522122	504581	491553	462465	441954	437986	418975	408198	396391	391941	377687	367331	358492	342616	332926	303516	299524	286284	271898	259617	234839
NMVOC	1A3biii	15963	16028	15905	14812	13175	12047	11080	9705	8663	8099	6784	5954	5519	5148	4786	4518	4223	3843	3391	2739	2290	2057	1668	1335	1032
NMVOC	1B2aiv	31672	29575	27478	25381	23285	21188	18401	15615	12829	12060	18459	11336	11224	7142	9479	14567	11996	10707	9748	7381	8576	8308	8654	8766	8123
NMVOC	2B10a	33362	30279	27196	24113	21029	17946	16632	15318	14004	13328	12591	10921	10435	10079	10053	7916	7846	7515	6296	5153	5718	5473	7429	5637	5461
NMVOC	2D3i	15092	14717	14342	13967	13592	13216	12730	12951	12335	12728	10734	10858	9720	11266	10985	10681	11312	11482	11474	11217	11366	11262	10788	10605	9896
NMVOC	2H2	7061	6944	6827	6711	6594	6477	3173	3838	6114	5400	6027	5416	4858	4899	4986	5100	4674	5295	5087	4997	5053	5121	4534	3754	3763
SOx	1A2b	4969	4569	4170	3770	3370	2970	3086	3202	3318	3425	3567	3008	2785	2803	3287	4337	3636	3725	3970	1679	2241	3496	1327	437	420
SOx	1A2c	19946	18248	16550	14852	13154	11456	10395	9333	8271	5653	3095	4223	4118	3626	4252	3903	4004	3957	3309	2251	2134	2391	2132	1617	1789
SOx	1A2gviii	5186	4777	4369	3961	3553	3144	3135	3127	3118	2281	2008	1576	1680	676	2306	1975	2617	2534	2242	2252	2615	2641	2509	2627	2764
NH3	3B4gi	9728	10502	11454	11377	10369	9246	9389	8736	10059	10553	10103	8225	8063	6631	8054	8359	8970	8096	8524	8876	8803	8763	8569	7946	8262
CO	1A3	722657	627612	603859	556576	524934	501729	484145	460373	437623	427040	409665	407309	410345	410389	408566	398164	393241	398163	393729	386539	382062	374235	360248	352091	339324
CO	1A3bi	588814	504372	468227	438707	403198	399977	393726	361304	339703	322717	299745	305911	312501	313652	307051	301650	305268	304012	302475	294001	282808	275766	254722	244063	226219
CO	1A3bii	48150	45293	43791	44504	38969	34955	31483	27190	24006	20578	17779	15839	14177	12446	11738	10276	9061	8013	7258	6577	5947	5359	4467	3979	3474
CO	1A4bii	14987	18507	21161	23636	25806	27609	28723	29435	29879	29979	29954	29914	29826	29717	29627	29347	29409	29374	29373	29587	29848	29860	29717	29587	29468

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
PM10	2A6	1038	1266	1820	1058	1061	1045	1047	1049	1051	1068	1075	1069	1068	1068	1073
PM10	3B4gii	1595	1564	1677	1187	1367	1395	1317	1372	1375	1356	1381	1340	1312	1311	1382
TSP	2A6	1140	1409	1853	1091	1061	1045	1047	1049	1051	1069	1076	1071	1071	1070	1089
TSP	2B10a	1028	2557	2169	2434	2488	2534	2349	2286	2069	1733	2070	1861	1911	2065	2005
TSP	3B4gii	1595	1564	1677	1187	1367	1395	1317	1372	1375	1356	1381	1340	1312	1311	1382
BC	1A3dii	192	189	192	216	199	185	178	178	171	163	161	159	161	159	158

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Pb	1A1a	16335731	10909406	8479554	6049703	3619851	1559507	1218615	877722	536830	234446	178180	189310	205099	225633	261327	240900	293800	252223	305181	369319	341467	377577	418205	435267	246874
Pb	1A2c	751476	667324	583171	499019	414866	330713	477029	623345	769661	396331	23000	105	239	405	4181	324			1112000	1404000	2927000	327000	245000
Pb	1A3	247230223	198481336	158622276	134808839	108350409	83361410	45913321	6555302	4724021	4914253	4448506	4214688	4215408	3884449	3765706	3681280	3804937	3791726	3876868	4081778	4063311	3782239	3522740	3281268	3237596
Pb	1A3bi	230212640	184130230	146395886	123716575	98939398	75194792	39763209	1974793	385009	398908	401079	405485	413874	418693	429599	427215	430445	437358	432597	433837	437576	440627	440793	441143	439894
Pb	1A3bii	10180042	7605459	5591047	4634502	3277474	2248869	1084051	84571	49961	54639	59564	63411	64161	65628	68356	69023	66455	67629	68724	66978	66506	65597	64010	62700	63095
Pb	1A3c	710392	762915	787208	827257	820035	839075	890549	892388	919831	929350	928191	890944	878727	892388	930390	892913	892913	865338	881095	912608	952002	941414	949141	926243	876743
Pb	2A3	7274000	7123000	6972000	6821000	6670000	6519000	5559567	4600133	3640700	3269850	2899000	2560000	1536000		2471630	1367780	1822080	1753000	1541590	1489100	835090	725450	795400	875600	989800
Pb	2B10a	2972194	2647692	2323190	1998688	1674186	1349684	1164672	979660	794648	932486	1070324	2076572	2961000	3741304	2449830	2199416	2545286	1675886	666686	261386	236986	295351	257486	205486	191486
Pb	2C1	55743430	56164144	56584858	57005572	57426286	57847000	49557700	41268400	32979100	25907050	18835000	23011200	26933340	24651520	25419726	22951435	22388739	28840804	23377500	24453700	29861030	17466000	11287530	9452163	3353930
Pb	2C3	268430	241924	215418	188912	162406	135900	268367	400833	533300	714800	896300	595182	652500	1019400	680638	246899	166448	305357	263425	111500	139148	140006	78000	47823	49204
Pb	2C6	323938	332305	340672	349038	357405	365772	378736	391699	404663	460251	515839	465548	552000			444760	358590	322590	346270	341930	430870	380650	414030	421310	1808290
Cd	1A1a	949190	706800	568600	430400	292200	164884	110627	74100	54906	48240	77760	103435	112285	69884	50390	94015	94003	91674	136817	227019	177636	70557	43459	40418	25705
Cd	1A1b	109830	112659	115487	118316	121144	123973	83543	43113	2682	3991	5300	5466	4136	4000	8700	100	2000	7490	6410	1000
Cd	1A2c	22447	22728	23010	23291	23572	23854	62614	101374	140134			10	24	41	386				767000	659000	1282000	95000	71000
Cd	2B10a	19	11117	22214	33312	44409	55507	44121	32736	21350	24768	28185	559000	876000	1264000	847700	801910	1035900	574800	99600	92000	101000	128910	123000	88000	87000
Cd	2C1	686600	638495	590390	542286	494181	446076	494189	542303	590416	499158	407900	627700	917400	705800	692600	660000	687099	906900	730100	686760	826650	674360	426980	353580	207755
Cd	2C3	12160	11918	11676	11434	11192	10950	12000	100000	180500	222300	264100	189796	158000	206500	48771	14323	9396	16474	14635	4300	3600	7260	2400	2038	3749
Cd	2C6	106133	96392	86651	76910	67169	57429	57288	57147	57006	61924	66843	44106	30000			22780	23200	22010	30190	19300	31080	39540	38950	35180	116720
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	2146225	1852268	1673147	1489410	1307686	1134711	1016905	1103690	1202763	1018548	1010127	1691179	2259898	2417577	1822691	1770404	2029888	1800114	1965453	1873810	2600690	1196235	887049	700862	635063
Hg	1A1a	1923277	1425000	1117000	809000	501000	378709	347689	316669	285649	341117	396585	349073	295815	262626	348940	379032	335533	282023	244252	221223	221038	209280	196462	172328	231377
Hg	1A1b	60493	63252	66012	68772	71531	74291	49756	25222	687	4094	7500	11640	8520	5670	7800	30	1023	1840	740	2000
Hg	1A1c	254	221	187	154	120	87	8457	16826	25196	27598	30000	37009	8001	5		1300	100	100	100
Hg	1A2c	118052	95372	72692	50012	27332	4653	3113	1574	34	32567	65100	6	14	524	481		100	100	11060	6050	6040	9040	7120	1020	150
Hg	1A2gviii	1354	1120	887	653	419	185	1642	2299	1001			323	283	2520	72		30	36850	8549	8143	10111	13175	18189	58630	36566
Hg	1A3di(i)	31076	29002	29742	30482	31200	31925	32929	34767	36256	37481	39506	38270	36882	35342	31670	34205	35611	37578	51473	43466	43544	46451	44023	40257	42054
Hg	2A1	108940	106940	104940	102940	100940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	52200	12970	12170	10360	5820	3600	17000	3070
Hg	2B10a	702161	638281	574402	510523	446644	382764	341843	300921	260000	228000	196000	86700	60000	52000	50010	52200	40000	23000			90	10	20	10	10
Hg	2C1	388204	380013	371822	363632	355441	347250	235130	123010	10890	50395	89900	124400	124000	124990	213504	209160	199441	243890	257910	238270	189230	246730	188150	173530	59998
Hg	2C5															10	126	15	14	14	10		54725	62157	30400	54000
Hg	5C1bv	57130	58832	60534	62236	63938	65640	70853	76067	81280	83070	98250	100650	99950	96000	95000	93000	94060	78340	62240	49500	41050	27070	8590	8840	8780
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	3576220	2966749	2550874	2132128	1714915	1481634	1277124	1075305	872088	977418	1095491	916369	803275	755970	928789	951551	886178	835553	717044	669103	614792	718793	642660	605001	547956

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
DIOX	1A2c	0	0	0	0	0	0	334	667	1001	500	0			5	8	735	11	12	451	1358	3939	665	496	4	4