Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: NL Submission year: 2014

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2012
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2012
PMs: 2000 - 2012

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
NOx	1A3di(ii)	22343	21481	20619	19757	18895	18728	19250	23286	19382	18115	19038	20268	18976	18345	17165	16837	16569	16860	16425	14428	15611	16722	17738
NMVOC	1A4bi	13222	13149	13085	12478	12433	12622	12011	11598	11437	10242	9421	10145	9964	9900	9356	9425	9445	9465	9438	9358	9392	9089	9018
NMVOC	1B2aiv	31672	29575	27478	25381	23285	21188	18401	15615	12829	12060	18459	11336	11224	7142	9479	14567	11996	10707	9748	7381	8576	8308	8654
NMVOC	2B5a	33362	30279	27196	24113	21029	17946	16632	15318	14004	13328	12591	10921	10435	10079	10053	7916	7846	7515	6296	5153	5718	5320	7198
NMVOC	2D2	7061	6944	6827	6711	6594	6477	3173	3838	6114	5400	6027	5416	4858	4899	4986	5100	4674	5295	5087	4997	5053	5121	4583
NMVOC	3A1	13515	13122	12729	12336	11943	11550	10364	9179	7993	7619	6952	6313	5434	4697	3754	4100	3800	3613	3449	3033	2471	926	959
SOx	1A2c	19946	18248	16550	14852	13154	11456	10395	9333	8271	5653	3095	4223	4118	3626	4252	3903	4004	3957	3309	2251	2134	2391	2132
SOx	1A2fi	5186	4777	4369	3961	3553	3144	3135	3127	3118	2281	2008	1576	1680	676	2306	1975	2617	2534	2242	2252	2615	2641	2509
NH3	7A	14295	15352	13512	13514	12613	11589	11831	12394	12047	11252	9998	11963	11532	11441	11367	11741	11520	11184	10582	10417	9559	10802	11252
CO	1A3bi	600945	523568	512440	475527	459890	442413	427889	410662	398573	391122	365752	348061	333453	318324	311060	294707	283752	278043	280551	272485	263204	259086	246145
CO	1A3bii	46868	43516	42042	40700	36162	31438	27246	23859	20994	18588	16360	14583	12866	11233	10507	9021	7706	6940	6297	5745	5130	4515	3899
CO	1A4bii	14987	18507	21161	23636	25806	27609	28723	29435	29879	29979	29954	29914	29826	29717	29627	29347	29409	29374	29373	29587	29848	29860	29717
CO	GRIDTOTAL	1144966	1050246	1035990	991882	963872	943215	900681	870111	849118	826418	791907	766179	737147	710105	717491	682684	674051	655482	658283	607088	605489	583160	560867
CO	NATIONALTOTAL	1144966	1050246	1035990	991882	963872	943215	900681	870111	849118	826418	791907	766179	737147	710105	717491	682684	674051	655482	658283	607088	605489	583160	560867

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
PM10	2A7d	1060	1459	1990	1093	1193	1164	1204	1206	1165	1168	1181	1194	1157
PM10	4B9b	1595	1564	1677	1187	1367	1401	1323	1375	1378	1359	1389	1344	1316
TSP	2B5a	1070	2557	2203	2478	2488	2534	2349	2286	2069	1733	2070	1861	1911
TSP	4B9b	1595	1564	1677	1187	1367	1401	1323	1375	1378	1359	1389	1344	1316

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Pb	1A1a	16335731	10909406	8479554	6049703	3619851	1559507	1218615	877722	536830	234446	178180	189310	205099	225633	261327	240900	293800	252223	305181	369319	343467	377577	418205
Pb	1A2c	751476	667324	583171	499019	414866	330713	477029	623345	769661	396331	23000	105	239	405	4181	324			1112000	1404000	2927000	327000	245000
Pb	1A3	250671698	201746706	157574763	139513288	110220736	87260331	47309840	5582857	3652533	3805871	3288680	3072264	3074072	2716670	2546623	2464066	2599274	2580210	2657504	2852470	2791525	2466229	2215847
Pb	1A3bi	224910525	179672971	142854680	120606132	96351923	73084259	38527722	1596342	36778	37704	37569	37842	38446	38682	39732	39110	38766	38960	39276	39320	39395	40200	39596
Pb	1A3bii	10171628	7589755	5567067	4604559	3244860	2214318	1476488	738658	827	740	582	441	376	327	327	280	232	203	181	174	160	142	129
Pb	2B5a	2972194	2649863	2327532	2005201	1682870	1360539	1171909	983278	794648	932486	1070324	2076572	2961000	3741304	2449830	2199416	2545286	1675886	666686	261386	236986	295351	257486
Pb	2C3	268430	241924	215418	188912	162406	135900	268367	400833	533300	714800	896300	595182	652500	1019400	680638	246899	166448	305357	263425	111500	139148	140006	78000
Cd	1A1a	949190	706800	568600	430400	292200	164884	110627	74100	54906	48240	77760	103435	112285	69884	50390	94015	94003	91674	136817	227019	177636	70557	43459
Cd	1A1b	109830	112659	115487	118316	121144	123973	83543	43113	2682	3991	5300	5466	4136	4000	8700	100	2000	7490	6410	1000
Cd	1A2c	22447	22728	23010	23291	23572	23854	62614	101374	140134			10	24	41	386				767000	659000	1282000	95000	71000
Cd	2B5a	19	11125	22230	33335	44440	55545	44147	32748	21350	24768	28185	559000	876000	1264000	847700	801910	1035900	574800	99600	92000	101000	128910	123000
Cd	2C1	686600	638495	590390	542286	494181	446076	494189	542303	590416	499158	407900	627700	917400	705800	692600	660000	687099	906900	730100	686760	826650	674360	426980
Cd	2C3	12160	11918	11676	11434	11192	10950	12000	100000	180500	222300	264100	189796	158000	206500	48771	14323	9396	16474	14635	4300	3600	7260	2400
Cd	GRIDTOTAL	2088536	1788927	1603359	1413343	1226743	1069496	942445	1026798	1124366	932673	922895	1603937	2171633	2327252	1731202	1677825	1934766	1705084	1871852	1780251	2506405	1102018	792925
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	2088536	1788927	1603359	1413343	1226743	1069496	942445	1026798	1124366	932673	922895	1603937	2171633	2327252	1731202	1677825	1934766	1705084	1871852	1780251	2506405	1102018	792925
Hg	1A1a	1923277	1425000	1117000	809000	501000	378709	347689	316669	285649	341117	396585	349073	295815	262626	348940	379032	335533	282023	244252	221223	222890	211175	196462
Hg	1A1b	60493	63252	66012	68772	71531	74291	49756	25222	687	4094	7500	11640	8520	5670	7800	30	1023	1840	740	2000
Hg	1A1c	254	221	187	154	120	87	8457	16826	25196	27598	30000	37009	8001	5		1300	100	100	100
Hg	1A2c	118052	95372	72692	50012	27332	4653	3113	1574	34	32567	65100	6	14	524	481		100	100	11060	6050	6040	9040	7120
Hg	1A2fi	1354	1120	887	653	419	185	1642	2299	1001			323	283	2520	72		30	36850	8549	8143	10111	13175	18189
Hg	1A3di(i)	31076	29002	29742	30482	31200	31925	32929	34767	36256	37481	39506	38270	36882	35342	31670	34205	35611	37578	51473	43466	43544	46451	44023
Hg	2A1	108940	106940	104940	102940	100940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	52200	12970	12170	10360	5820	3600
Hg	2B5a	702161	638281	574402	510523	446644	382764	341843	300921	260000	228000	196000	86700	60000	52000	50010	52200	40000	23000			90	10	20
Hg	2C1	388204	380013	371822	363632	355441	347250	235130	123010	10890	50395	89900	124400	124000	124990	213504	209160	199441	243890	257910	238270	189230	246730	188150
Hg	2C5b															10	126	15	14	14	10		54725	62157
Hg	6Cd	57130	58832	60534	62236	63938	65640	70853	76067	81280	83070	98250	100650	99950	96000	95000	93000	94060	78340	62240	49500	41050	27070	8590
Hg	GRIDTOTAL	3514023	2902536	2482423	2060646	1640528	1410857	1200309	996701	791956	891538	1009419	830144	716176	667186	838421	860695	793989	743037	625203	577458	524579	626910	549628
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	3514023	2902536	2482423	2060646	1640528	1410857	1200309	996701	791956	891538	1009419	830144	716176	667186	838421	860695	793989	743037	625203	577458	524579	626910	549628