Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: NL Submission year: 2013

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02 and NFR09 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 sectors are available to NFR09 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2011
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2011
PMs: 2000 - 2011

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
NOx	1A3bi	137547	126823	119889	108567	101192	91795	86635	79580	73588	69177	61015	54315	48579	43849	40855	37105	34552	32546	31477	29325	27691	27720
NOx	1A3di(ii)	22343	21481	20619	19757	18895	18728	19250	23286	19382	18115	19038	20268	18976	18345	17165	16900	16635	16960	16531	14531	15736	16869
NOx	1A4ai	13645	13113	12162	13450	12450	14373	15747	13913	14098	13502	13025	14442	14857	15388	14532	12034	13849	11688	12435	12032	13379	9531
NMVOC	1A2c	24505	22314	20123	17932	15741	13550	10766	7982	5198	637	5622	5318	5730	6004	5772	7237	7530	6707	6239	5063	3672	4672
NMVOC	1A4bi	13222	13149	13085	12478	12433	12622	12011	11598	11437	10242	9421	10145	9964	9900	9356	9425	9445	9465	9438	9358	9392	9086
NMVOC	1B2aiv	31672	29575	27478	25381	23285	21188	18401	15615	12829	12060	18459	11336	11224	7142	9479	14567	11996	10707	9748	7381	8576	8308
NMVOC	2D2	7061	6944	6827	6711	6594	6477	3173	3838	6114	5400	6027	5416	4858	4899	4986	5100	4674	5295	5087	4997	5053	5121
SOx	1A2b	4969	4569	4170	3770	3370	2970	3086	3202	3318	3425	3567	3008	2785	2803	3287	4337	3636	3725	3970	1679	2241	3496
SOx	1A2c	19946	18248	16550	14852	13154	11456	10395	9333	8271	5653	3095	4223	4118	3626	4252	3903	4004	3957	3309	2251	2095	2365
SOx	1A2fi	5186	4777	4369	3961	3553	3144	3135	3127	3118	2281	2008	1576	1680	676	2306	1975	2617	2534	2242	2252	2653	2667
SOx	1A3di(i)	51740	48300	49529	50758	51906	53154	54792	57595	60039	62140	65451	64985	64334	63563	61060	63816	66868	59576	44048	42695	38387	28121
NH3	7A	14295	15352	13512	13514	12613	11589	11831	12394	12047	11252	9998	11963	11534	11443	11370	11789	11569	11249	10627	10467	9591	10898
CO	1A3bii	38775	36015	35234	34652	31389	27828	24728	22283	20132	18228	16280	14669	13021	11386	10652	9176	7857	7087	6435	5865	5235	4682
CO	1A4bii	14987	18507	21161	23636	25806	27609	28723	29435	29879	29979	29954	29914	29826	29717	29627	29347	29409	29374	29373	29587	29848	29860

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
PM2.5	1A2c	745	14	81	137	147	107	57	17	75	144	69	144
PM10	2A7d	1060	1459	1990	1093	1193	1164	1204	1206	1165	1168	1181	1194
TSP	2B5a	1070	2557	2203	2478	2488	2534	2349	2286	2069	1733	2070	1861

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Pb	1A1a	16335731	10909406	8479554	6049703	3619851	1559507	1218615	877722	536830	234446	178180	189310	205099	225633	261327	240900	293800	252223	305181	370627	348677	369616
Pb	1A2c	751476	667324	583171	499019	414866	330713	477029	623345	769661	396331	23000	105	239	405	4181	324			1112000	1404000	2927000	327000
Pb	1A3	251189478	201863398	157693279	139627001	110334896	87376079	47409621	5690048	3754764	3915700	3417464	3194917	3197392	2822785	2645507	2583610	2726168	2718542	2808941	2991651	2923873	2634586
Pb	1A3bi	224988329	179835372	143087688	120888502	96647433	73975044	39324697	1598896	37043	38017	38246	38185	38417	38689	39761	39198	39022	39386	39717	39978	39996	40711
Pb	1A3bii	10171628	7589755	5567067	4604559	3244860	2214318	1476488	738658	827	740	582	441	376	327	327	280	232	203	181	174	160	145
Pb	1A3bvi	5169378	4860535	5064185	4953230	4979442	5027499	4991038	4978137	4982320	5081231	5012200	5071530	5154233	5209629	5342406	5345856	5379241	5484518	5629459	5605648	5580491	5662275
Pb	2B5a	2972194	2649863	2327532	2005201	1682870	1360539	1171909	983278	794648	932486	1070324	2076572	2961000	3741304	2449830	2199416	2545286	1675886	666686	261386	236986	295351
Cd	1A1a	949190	706800	568600	430400	292200	164884	110627	74100	54906	48240	77760	103435	112285	69884	50390	94015	94003	91674	136817	227019	177636	88923
Cd	1A1b	109830	112659	115487	118316	121144	123973	83543	43113	2682	3991	5300	5466	4136	4000	8700	100	2000	7490	6410	1000
Cd	1A2c	22447	22728	23010	23291	23572	23854	62614	101374	140134			10	24	41	386				767000	659000	1282000	95000
Cd	2B5a	19	11125	22230	33335	44440	55545	44147	32748	21350	24768	28185	559000	876000	1264000	847700	801910	1035900	574800	99600	92000	101000	128910
Cd	2C1	686812	642253	597695	553136	508577	464018	506151	548283	590416	499158	407900	627700	917400	705800	692600	660000	687099	906900	730800	686760	826650	674360
Cd	2C3	12160	11918	11676	11434	11192	10950	12000	100000	180500	222300	264100	189796	158000	206500	48771	14323	9396	16474	14635	4300	3600	7260
Cd	GRIDTOTAL	2088601	1792731	1610685	1424217	1241208	1069488	954395	1032740	1124341	932647	922871	1603917	2171630	2327272	1731240	1677887	1934828	1705136	1871903	1780297	2506462	1120629
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	2088601	1792731	1610685	1424217	1241208	1069488	954395	1032740	1124341	932647	922871	1603917	2171630	2327272	1731240	1677887	1934828	1705136	1871903	1780297	2506462	1120629
Hg	1A1a	1923277	1425000	1117000	809000	501000	378709	347689	316669	285649	341117	396585	349073	295815	262626	348940	379032	335533	282023	244252	221223	222931	221538
Hg	1A1b	60493	63252	66012	68772	71531	74291	49756	25222	687	4094	7500	11640	8520	5670	7800	30	1023	1840	740	2000
Hg	1A1c	254	221	187	154	120	87	8457	16826	25196	27598	30000	37009	8001	5		1300	100	100	100
Hg	1A2c	118052	95372	72692	50012	27332	4653	3113	1574	34	32567	65100	6	14	524	481		100	100	11060	6050	6040	9040
Hg	1A2fi	1354	1120	887	653	419	185	1642	2299	1001			323	283	2520	72		30	36850	8549	8143	10111	13175
Hg	2A1	108940	106940	104940	102940	100940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	98940	52200	12970	12170	10360	5820
Hg	2B5a	702161	638281	574402	510523	446644	382764	341843	300921	260000	228000	196000	86700	60000	52000	50010	52200	40000	23000			90	10
Hg	2C1	388331	380957	373582	366207	358832	351457	237935	124412	10890	51095	91300	124400	124000	124990	213504	209160	199441	275300	289700	271100	309200	433700
Hg	2C5b															10	126	15	14	14	10		54725
Hg	6Cd	57130	58832	60534	62236	63938	65640	70853	76067	81280	83070	98250	100650	99950	96000	95000	93000	94000	78340	62240	49500	41050	26930
Hg	GRIDTOTAL	3514023	2903480	2484183	2063222	1643919	1410857	1203114	998103	791956	892238	1009419	830144	716176	667186	838421	860695	793929	774447	653233	607958	641100	823173
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL	3514023	2903480	2484183	2063222	1643919	1410857	1203114	998103	791956	892238	1009419	830144	716176	667186	838421	860695	793929	774447	653233	607958	641100	823173