Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: MT Submission year: 2023

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2021
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2021
PMs: 2000 - 2021

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
NMVOC	1A3bv	623	625	528	685	756	725	707	716	711	698	640	602	521	540	474	443	458	463	442	428	437	437	448	963	422	422	414	435	290	290	350	361
NMVOC	1B2av	130	134	140	170	170	240	148	162	164	154	144	136	150	140	118	132	129	125	122	118	115	111	108	105	101	98	94	91	87	84	81	81
NMVOC	2H2	49	49	49	49	49	49	48	49	51	49	48	47	49	62	37	45	43	52	57	67	66	83	82	74	95	91	80	92	95	97	88	82
NMVOC	3B4gii	250	248	248	248	248	255	254	253	251	248	244	298	241	215	180	145	155	166	167	167	168	144	154	155	147	139	110	110	117	119	136	139
SOx	1A1a	12398	10963	10688	14796	12409	10159	9853	9921	10153	10253	8869	11101	10769	11239	11703	11940	12090	12380	10100	6414	7800	7773	7585	4880	4566	2000	1632	545	11	19	47	19
SOx	1A2gviii	47	45	58	62	69	74	72	84	82	76	73	65	64	67	67	44	44	55	55	27	43	15	36	72	82	83	78	67	50	54	62	69
SOx	1A3ai(i)	6	6	1	1	7	1	1	1	11	18	17	17	16	16	16	8	8	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	10	11	11	13	15	16	6	8
SOx	1A3dii	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	16	22	13	12	11	15	16	15	15	15	15	15	15	16	17	17	19	25	10	13
SOx	1A4cii	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	1	1	2	2	8	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	6	6	6	6
SOx	1A4ciii	2	3	3	4	4	5	6	6	6	7	8	7	9	9	11	10	10	3	3	3	6	3	10	6	6	6	6	5	6	7	3	2
NH3	1A3bi	1	2	15	20	21	22	28	34	40	48	50	51	52	53	55	56	57	59	58	61	57	56	55	55	55	54	54	52	51	50	41	43
NH3	3B1b	149	156	156	152	141	131	148	148	135	143	138	121	131	124	140	144	143	147	133	115	100	102	107	106	95	104	94	94	91	92	95	95
NH3	3B4f	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	59	5
NH3	3B4gii	94	93	93	93	93	95	95	95	94	93	91	112	90	80	67	54	58	62	62	63	63	54	58	58	55	52	41	41	44	45	51	52
CO	1A1a	272	255	251	338	304	299	324	316	321	336	318	396	389	432	409	365	371	379	348	327	321	338	374	313	303	163	121	516	97	69	197	155
CO	1A4cii	58	59	60	55	54	56	56	747	747	747	747	736	747	736	725	714	714	11	714	315	318	329	330	335	274	273	272	270	268	266	263	260

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
PM2.5	1A3bvi	32	33	33	34	35	36	36	37	36	38	38	40	40	40	42	43	45	46	47	48	39	43
PM2.5	1A3bvii	11	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	14	14	14	14	15	15	15	16	16	13	14
PM2.5	2D3b	2	6	3	3	44	55	60	65	37	49	46	48	50	51	53	55	56	58	60	72	98	86
PM2.5	2G	14	14	15	16	18	8	14	20	23	26	33	19	24	35	19	19	20	19	21	23	19	18
PM10	1A1a	454	568	552	577	599	550	558	561	527	194	267	354	345	188	369	107	54	212	4	5	8	7
PM10	1A3bvi	64	66	68	70	71	72	73	74	73	77	78	80	81	82	84	87	90	93	96	98	80	86
PM10	3Dc	80	84	69	76	75	71	71	73	76	75	79	79	80	79	79	79	83	83	81	83	79	79
TSP	1A3bvi	79	81	83	86	87	88	89	91	90	94	95	98	99	100	103	106	111	114	118	120	98	106
TSP	3Dc	80	84	69	76	75	71	71	73	76	75	79	79	80	79	79	79	83	83	81	83	79	79
BC	1A1a	20	25	24	26	26	26	26	24	23	8	10	12	13	8	13	4	3	5	0	0	1	0
BC	1A2gviii	3	3	4	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	2	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2
BC	1A3bvi	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	9	9	9	10	10	8	9
BC	1A3dii	2	2	2	3	2	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	4
BC	1A4ai	12	6	5	5	5	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	2	2	3	4	4	3	2	3	3	3
BC	1A4cii	4	3	4	3	2	1	1	1	1	3	3	4	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
BC	2D3b	0	0	0	0	3	3	3	4	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	6	5
BC	2G	4	4	4	5	5	1	3	6	8	8	11	6	9	13	5	5	6	6	6	7	6	5

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Pb	1A1a	116224	104303	99189	136590	115209	95759	96561	94682	96193	100245	93448	116512	114081	125456	120648	86006	87160	88596	85832	80548	79866	41605	162566	55215	73321	23537	10567	204	7	8	12	9
Pb	1A3bi	48963	53038	55017	69089	71850	74974	78094	79325	80170	81250	81158	147	80542	81156	81772	83314	84692	86203	84817	91698	94143	177	177	179	184	190	194	199	202	206	168	186
Cd	1A1a	23240	21630	21031	28462	25285	24069	25870	25177	25525	26840	25523	31792	31202	34754	32768	28744	29276	29912	27275	25631	25057	26370	28347	23171	22773	12477	8752	2320	4	5	5	5
Cd	2G	2002	1996	1994	2000	2020	1997	1970	1981	2033	2123	1882	1840	2038	2292	2568	672	1669	3030	3562	3975	5279	2923	4042	5823	2434	2562	2975	2839	3042	3311	2761	2526
Cd	3F	30684	30008	29950	30108	30276	30326	29434	30309	30196	30082	30007	30213	31821	33608	32600	31836	31997	32095	33314	34449	35802	35134	34595	34041	34411	34798	34930	37290	36184	34749	33571	34
Hg	3F	4985	4927	4917	4924	4931	4930	4855	4917	4903	4889	4877	4888	5160	5450	5297	5170	5186	5211	5395	5580	5795	5687	5601	5512	5571	5631	5658	6034	5853	5630	5440	5

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
DIOX	1A4bi	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	7	4	6	6	6	6	7	7	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	3	3	3	3	7	7
DIOX	2G	34	34	34	34	35	34	34	34	35	36	32	31	35	40	45	11	29	54	64	72	94	52	73	104	41	44	52	50	53	58	49	44
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	261	244	249	295	276	244	241	252	255	258	250	253	258	275	284	241	254	286	281	2261	7969	1061	1930	2128	1938	1798	1674	1645	1565	198	184	177
DIOX	NTCOMPL(NECD)	261	244	249	295	276	244	241	252	255	258	250	253	258	275	284	241	254	286	281	2261	7969	1061	1930	2128	1938	1798	1674	1645	1565	198	184	177
DIOX	NTCOMPLIANCE	261	244	249	295	276	244	241	252	255	258	250	253	258	275	284	241	254	286	281	2261	7969	1061	1930	2128	1938	1798	1674	1645	1565	198	184	177
HCB	1A1a	50240	40703	34335	50240	34167	8724																2	25	34	26	9	20	2
HCB	5C1bv																				44222	39683	42868	43718	46099	47508	49658	53398	54415	57553	59243	78351	59717
PCB	1A1a	24745	20048	16911	24745	16828	4297																1	15	20	15	6	12	1
PCB	5C1bv																				117716	120718	105884	97929	108007	100370	93217	86217	85602	81330	277063	86	137