Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA

Inv. comparison

Time series

Trend graphs

Add Comments

---

TIME SERIES

Party: MT      Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
NOx	1A2gviii	333	348	408	420	458	490	496	511	379	407	401	359	382	414	416	169	173	214	214	135	174	71	155	335	381	377	360	314	238	261	342
NOx	1A3bi	1137	1146	1283	1394	1465	1486	1341	1441	1383	1406	1412	1443	1477	1509	1841	1418	1326	1397	1374	1328	1338	1314	1262	1218	1215	1198	1178	1163	1089	1048	808
NOx	1A3bii	272	273	354	426	455	482	451	532	490	501	506	513	514	520	516	569	517	558	557	541	588	564	551	532	528	509	522	530	527	517	391
NOx	1A3biii	712	695	867	1208	1313	1369	1297	1496	1382	1361	1324	1295	1260	1274	1237	1044	1019	1034	1072	1027	1186	1219	1178	1110	1097	1078	1011	1009	1054	1005	728
NOx	1A3dii	266	266	266	266	266	266	266	266	266	266	266	266	298	404	227	209	193	279	285	266	264	264	267	272	274	276	301	307	349	396	390
NMVOC	1A3bv	569	534	604	627	660	581	481	506	457	435	380	343	280	270	251	417	412	445	415	411	444	445	456	963	422	422	414	435	290	291	350
NMVOC	1B2av	130	134	140	170	170	240	148	162	164	154	144	136	150	140	118	132	132	138	170	146	146	146	146	144	146	152	154	155	157	166	140
NMVOC	2B10b											54	42	199	96	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36
NMVOC	2D3a	287	287	287	287	287	287	287	286	288	288	288	283	285	219	263	262	253	287	324	271	326	283	286	330	709	277	673	293	320	309	299
NMVOC	2H2	49	49	49	49	49	49	48	49	51	49	48	47	49	62	37	45	43	52	57	67	66	83	82	74	95	91	80	92	95	97	88
NMVOC	3B4gii	250	248	248	248	248	255	254	253	251	248	244	298	241	215	180	145	155	166	167	167	168	144	154	155	147	139	110	110	119	121	126
SOx	1A1a	12398	10963	10688	14796	12409	10159	9853	9921	10153	10253	8869	11101	10769	11239	11703	11940	12090	12380	10100	6409	7799	7760	7584	4870	4560	1999	1632	545	11	19	47
SOx	1A2gviii	7	7	8	8	9	10	10	10	8	8	8	7	8	8	8	3	3	4	4	3	3	1	3	7	8	16	16	16	12	11	12
SOx	1A3ai(i)	6	6	1	1	7	1	1	1	11	18	17	17	16	16	16	8	8	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	10	11	11	13	15	16	6
SOx	1A4ai	70	73	86	90	98	106	105	112	87	90	88	83	83	89	95	47	41	52	52	20	48	9	27	45	46	57	43	44	35	39	45
SOx	1A4cii	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	1	1	2	2	8	9	9	8
SOx	1A4ciii	2	3	3	4	4	5	6	6	6	7	8	7	9	9	11	10	3	3	3	3	6	3	10	6	6	6	6	5	6	7	3
NH3	1A3bi	1	1	2	13	19	25	24	29	31	34	37	37	36	35	40	62	61	66	67	67	61	61	59	55	55	54	54	52	51	50	41
NH3	1A5b	10	13	27	24	28	32	47	46	51	62	73	33	35	22	28	10	18	15	8	23	63	70	49	42	42	48	39	49	40	63	40
NH3	3B1b	168	176	176	172	159	148	167	167	151	160	163	139	148	140	158	164	165	171	155	134	116	117	123	122	110	119	107	107	104	106	109
NH3	3B4gii	214	212	212	212	212	218	217	216	214	212	209	255	206	184	154	124	133	142	143	143	143	123	131	133	126	119	94	94	102	104	108
NH3	3Da2a	976	993	1010	1006	984	937	883	885	847	864	907	874	864	797	806	771	789	827	745	706	673	583	587	600	591	581	548	521	538	531	551
CO	1A3biii	264	258	297	409	444	464	425	491	452	445	442	432	421	425	413	356	343	348	362	341	369	377	358	331	326	319	301	300	307	293	211
CO	1A3biv	309	309	269	639	691	699	470	559	450	469	469	497	507	510	469	412	408	405	398	371	472	426	396	353	348	341	345	340	335	307	235
CO	1A4cii	41	44	50	51	53	55	60	59	58	59	60	55	54	56	56	747	736	747	747	736	747	736	725	714	714	11	714	315	318	329	331

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
PM2.5	1A2gviii	15	14	15	16	16	6	7	8	8	5	7	3	6	13	15	15	14	12	9	10	13
PM2.5	1A4ai	69	30	23	20	19	6	5	6	6	8	12	9	15	17	20	26	28	23	16	19	26
PM2.5	2D3b	2	6	3	3	44	55	60	65	37	49	46	48	50	51	53	55	56	58	60	72	98
PM10	1A4ai	69	31	24	21	20	6	5	6	6	8	12	9	15	17	20	26	28	23	16	19	26
TSP	1A4ai	69	31	24	21	20	6	5	6	6	8	12	9	15	17	20	26	28	23	16	19	26
BC	1A1a	20	25	24	26	26	26	26	24	23	8	10	12	13	8	13	4	3	1	0	0	1
BC	1A2gviii	9	8	8	9	9	4	4	5	5	3	4	1	3	7	8	8	8	7	5	5	7
BC	1A3bi	88	90	96	101	127	40	35	37	36	35	35	35	33	32	31	30	28	27	24	23	16
BC	1A4ai	52	22	16	13	12	4	3	4	4	6	8	7	11	12	15	19	21	17	12	14	19
BC	1A4cii	1	1	1	1	1	4	3	4	4	3	4	3	2	1	1	1	1	3	3	4	5
BC	2D3b	0	0	0	0	3	3	3	4	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	6
BC	2G						1	3	6	8	8	11	6	9	13	5	5	6	6	6	7	6
BC	NATIONALTOTAL	235	210	210	217	245	148	139	147	146	130	142	132	135	132	131	125	120	114	104	107	97
BC	NTCOMPL(NECD)	235	210	210	217	245	148	139	147	146	130	142	132	135	132	131	125	120	114	104	107	97
BC	NTCOMPLIANCE	235	210	210	217	245	148	139	147	146	130	142	132	135	132	131	125	120	114	104	107	97

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Pb	1A1a	116224	104303	99189	136590	115209	95759	96561	94682	96193	100245	93448	116512	114081	125456	120648	3781324	3829496	3889509	3812891	3584970	3548515	2476285	9675930	3286468	4364068	1235337	628912	14303	4254	4588	3660
Pb	1A3bi	41519	42096	45484	54002	57777	59955	52622	55044	51187	50250	49160	115	45095	42940	48686	82663	79590	86560	88337	91129	92996	175	175	179	184	190	194	199	203	206	168
Pb	1A3bii	5586	5620	7022	10344	11602	12897	11721	12766	11079	13386	13481	31	12157	11601	10895	1045	910	960	921	854	966	15	15	16	16	15	16	16	17	17	13
Pb	1A3bvi	38660	38633	47452	62884	69950	75196	70633	80727	77973	82094	84710	86581	88222	90648	103346	80013	76848	83525	85514	86137	91000	93876	94118	96227	98915	101616	106553	109874	113596	115398	93286
Pb	1A4ai	6443	6966	8221	8737	9147	10429	10172	10409	8163	8987	8671	9536	9647	10430	11212	6427	5622	7228	7228	2442	6455	848	3275	5737	5757	5727	3339	3522	3173	3756	4347
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	301111	290290	300346	366200	357568	347566	334787	346582	336966	348474	344885	305551	363089	375284	390348	4047880	4100787	4161392	4088664	3883939	3860402	2657031	9857008	3506536	4594651	1455104	841335	220586	229773	249698	206629
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	301111	290290	300346	366200	357568	347566	334787	346582	336966	348474	344885	305551	363089	375284	390348	4047880	4100787	4161392	4088664	3883939	3860402	2657031	9857008	3506536	4594651	1455104	841335	220586	229773	249698	206629
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	301111	290290	300346	366200	357568	347566	334787	346582	336966	348474	344885	305551	363089	375284	390348	4047880	4100787	4161392	4088664	3883939	3860402	2657031	9857008	3506536	4594651	1455104	841335	220586	229773	249698	206629
Hg	1A1a	16231	14396	12384	17254	13606	8999	8900	8034	7965	9176	10393	12844	12843	15737	12744	8277	8423	8597	7936	7461	7307	7668	8419	6885	6701	3680	2580	3349	4669	4963	4421

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
DIOX	1A3biii	5	5	7	9	10	11	10	11	11	10	10	10	10	10	10	8	8	9	9	9	11	11	11	10	10	10	10	10	10	9	7
DIOX	1A4ai	5	5	7	7	7	8	8	9	7	7	7	6	6	6	7	3	3	4	4	2	4	1	2	3	4	4	3	3	2	3	3
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	239	224	223	277	261	232	222	232	228	238	237	253	257	271	293	261	269	307	305	587061	7995	1057	2813	3110	2930	2748	2463	2454	2344	2409	224
DIOX	NTCOMPL(NECD)	239	224	223	277	261	232	222	232	228	238	237	253	257	271	293	261	269	307	305	587061	7995	1057	2813	3110	2930	2748	2463	2454	2344	2409	224
DIOX	NTCOMPLIANCE	239	224	223	277	261	232	222	232	228	238	237	253	257	271	293	261	269	307	305	587061	7995	1057	2813	3110	2930	2748	2463	2454	2344	2409	224
HCB	1A1a	50240	40703	34335	50240	34167	8724																2	25	38	26	9	20	2
HCB	1A3dii	352	352	352	352	352	352	352	352	352	352	352	352	394	534	300	276	255	368	376	352	349	348	352	359	361	365	398	406	461	523	514
PCB	1A1a	24745	20048	16911	24745	16828	4297																1	15	23	15	6	12	1
PCB	1A3dii	167	167	167	167	167	167	167	167	167	167	167	167	187	254	142	131	121	175	178	167	166	165	167	170	172	173	189	193	219	248	244
PCB	5C1bv																				177443	181969	159608	147617	162810	151297	140515	129963	129036	122597	277000	1