Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: MT Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	1A2gviii	201	348	408	420	458	490	496	511	379	407	401	359	382	414	416	169	173	214	214	135	174	71	155	335	381	377	360	314	238	201
NOx	1A3bi	1091	1132	1056	1545	1585	1630	1676	2059	1478	1319	1291	1249	1251	1132	1113	1115	1058	1023	1011	1249	1251	1182	1141	1133	1139	1132	1113	1115	1058	1023
NOx	1A3bii	305	277	345	579	572	589	598	597	567	739	735	712	627	504	500	511	514	506	490	712	627	521	509	507	503	504	500	511	514	506
NMVOC	1A3bi	2064	2167	1990	1300	1182	1095	989	1059	1623	1374	1300	1209	1295	780	690	682	541	489	374	1209	1295	1064	927	862	817	780	690	682	541	489
NMVOC	1A3bv	576	545	536	385	346	282	272	253	465	448	418	413	433	417	411	427	288	290	183	413	433	433	443	955	418	417	411	427	288	290
NMVOC	1B2av	130	134	140	170	170	240	148	162	164	154	144	136	150	140	118	138	152	130	140	138	146	146	146	144	146	152	154	155	157	161
NMVOC	2B10b											54	42	199	96	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36
NMVOC	3B4gii	242	253	241	241	239	235	246	245	240	230	216	298	241	215	180	145	155	166	167	167	168	144	154	155	147	139	110	110	119	121
NMVOC	NATIONALTOTAL	4432	4657	4612	3839	3683	3561	3366	3455	4390	3856	3816	3653	3983	3175	2956	2837	2583	2553	2215	3374	3655	3297	3184	3603	3049	2975	2864	2984	2729	2681
NMVOC	NTCOMPLIANCE	4432	4657	4612	3839	3683	3561	3366	3455	4390	3856	3816	3653	3983	3175	2956	2837	2583	2553	2215	3374	3655	3297	3184	3603	3049	2975	2864	2984	2729	2681
SOx	1A1a	12398	10962	10688	14796	12408	10158	9854	9921	10154	10254	8869	11102	10770	11239	11703	11940	12090	12380	10100	6409	7799	7760	7584	4870	4560	1996	1630	547	11	19
SOx	1A2gviii	4	7	8	8	9	10	10	10	8	8	8	7	8	8	8	3	3	4	4	3	3	1	3	7	8	16	16	16	12	8
SOx	1A3ai(i)	9	8	0	1	8	1	1	1	13	32	26	24	22	20	22	25	26	29	33	33	33	33	34	36	58	46	38	46	50	49
SOx	1A4ai	31	73	86	90	98	106	105	112	87	90	88	83	83	89	95	47	41	52	52	20	48	9	27	45	46	57	43	44	35	37
SOx	1A4cii	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	1	1	2	2	8	9	8
SOx	1A4ciii	2	3	3	4	4	5	6	6	6	7	8	7	9	9	11	10	3	3	3	3	6	3	10	6	6	6	6	5	6	7
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	12549	11154	10908	15078	12714	10484	10189	10288	10456	10519	9124	11335	11006	11475	11945	12105	12246	12554	10294	6528	8008	7885	7743	5008	4720	2168	1777	713	166	162
SOx	NTCOMPL(NECD)	12549	11154	10908	15078	12714	10484	10189	10288	10456	10519	9124	11335	11006	11475	11945	12105	12246	12554	10294	6528	8008	7885	7743	5008	4720	2168	1777	713	166	162
SOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	12549	11154	10908	15078	12714	10484	10189	10288	10456	10519	9124	11335	11006	11475	11945	12105	12246	12554	10294	6528	8008	7885	7743	5008	4720	2168	1777	713	166	162
NH3	1A3bi	1	1	1	33	33	32	31	36	27	59	60	60	50	53	52	51	49	47	48	60	50	55	54	53	53	53	52	51	49	47
NH3	3B1b	168	176	175	171	158	149	167	167	150	159	163	139	148	140	158	164	165	171	155	134	116	117	123	122	110	119	107	107	104	108
NH3	3B4gii	101	106	101	101	100	98	103	103	100	96	90	125	101	90	75	61	65	70	70	70	70	60	64	65	62	58	46	46	50	51
CO	1A4cii	41	44	50	51	53	55	60	59	58	59	60	55	54	56	56	747	736	747	747	736	747	736	725	714	714	11	714	315	318	321

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PM2.5	1A2gviii	15	14	15	16	16	6	7	8	8	5	7	3	6	13	15	15	14	12	9	7
PM2.5	1A4ai	69	30	23	20	19	6	5	6	6	8	12	9	15	17	20	26	28	23	16	16
PM2.5	1A4bi	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	24	23	30	27	34	36	34	43	42	53
PM2.5	2D3b	2	6	3	3	44	55	60	65	37	49	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	46	60	72
PM10	1A4ai	69	31	24	21	20	6	5	6	6	8	12	9	15	17	20	26	28	23	16	16
PM10	1A4bi	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	24	23	31	28	35	37	35	44	43	54
TSP	1A4ai	68	30	22	19	19	5	4	5	5	8	11	9	14	16	20	25	27	23	16	15
BC	1A1a	20	25	24	26	26	26	26	24	23	8	10	12	13	8	13	4	3	1	0	0
BC	1A2gviii	9	8	8	9	9	4	4	5	5	3	4	1	3	7	8	8	8	7	5	4
BC	1A4ai	52	22	16	13	12	4	3	4	4	6	8	7	11	12	15	19	21	17	12	12
BC	1A4cii	1	1	1	1	1	4	3	4	4	3	4	3	2	1	1	1	1	3	3	4
BC	2D3b	0	0	0	0	3	3	3	4	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4
BC	2G						1	4	7	8	9	11	6	9	13	5	5	6	6	7	7

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A1a	116222	104293	99202	136596	115208	95750	96570	94691	96207	100254	93440	116527	114095	125461	120651	3781324	3829496	3889509	3812891	3584970	3548515	2476285	9675930	3286468	4364068	1235337	628912	11929	16	17
Pb	1A3bi	51909	53398	49216	61590	144	56590	53999	61144	63822	108993	206	114877	118709	213	217	223	223	218	234	114877	118709	198	198	201	206	213	217	223	223	218
Pb	1A3bii	9037	8079	9870	19329	41	17331	16513	15434	19829	1476	19	1299	1384	18	18	19	20	19	20	1299	1384	18	18	18	18	18	18	19	20	19
Pb	1A4ai	3738	6966	8221	8737	9147	10429	10172	10409	8163	8987	8671	9536	9647	10430	11212	6427	5622	7228	7228	2442	6455	848	3275	5737	5757	5727	3339	3522	3173	3740
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	220553	212550	209387	313108	212361	271510	271296	289615	269280	309395	193073	333606	348235	238961	239662	3898476	3962181	4013015	3938498	3815158	3795940	2579475	9778024	3473657	4542846	1417069	811192	202236	189684	208678
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	220553	212550	209387	313108	212361	271510	271296	289615	269280	309395	193073	333606	348235	238961	239662	3898476	3962181	4013015	3938498	3815158	3795940	2579475	9778024	3473657	4542846	1417069	811192	202236	189684	208678
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	220553	212550	209387	313108	212361	271510	271296	289615	269280	309395	193073	333606	348235	238961	239662	3898476	3962181	4013015	3938498	3815158	3795940	2579475	9778024	3473657	4542846	1417069	811192	202236	189684	208678
Cd	1A1a	23239	21627	21035	28464	25285	24066	25873	25180	25529	26842	25521	31796	31206	34756	32769	5022	5086	5165	5064	4761	4713	3544	3512	4388	3868	925	3425	312	3	3
Cd	2D3i	915	1034	1040	1198	1212	1422	1122	1544	1358	1262	973	915	611	791	994	1024	1059	1093	1205	1608	1744	1765	1776	1806	1860	1917	1965	2021	2037	2126
Hg	1A3bii	113	102	126	297	284	294	295	291	285	190	192	190	200	186	188	196	201	200	209	190	200	178	178	180	182	186	188	196	201	200

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
DIOX	1A3bii	5	5	6	17	17	18	19	19	16	18	19	18	20	18	18	17	17	16	15	18	20	20	19	19	19	18	18	17	17	16
DIOX	1A3biii	3	2	4	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	11	10	9	9	10	10	8	7	11	11	10	10	10	10	9	9	10	10
DIOX	1A4ai	2	5	7	7	7	8	8	9	7	7	7	6	6	6	7	3	3	4	4	2	4	1	2	3	4	4	3	3	2	3
DIOX	5C1bv																				4394	7658	800	3655	4031	3746	3479	3218	3195	3036	4143
DIOX	5E	33	33	32	33	33	32	33	32	33	33	31	33	31	35	37	40	34	38	29	28	29	25	21	27	30	27	7	40	44	39
HCB	1A1a	50240	40703	34335	50240	34167	8724																2	25	38	26	9	20	2
PCB	1A1a	24745	20048	16911	24745	16828	4297																1	15	23	15	6	12	1