Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA for CLRTAP

KCA for NECD

Inv. comparison

Time series

Trend graphs

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TIME SERIES

Party: MT      Submission year: 2020

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2018
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2018
PMs: 2000 - 2018

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NOx	1A2gviii											156	134	128	136	162	169	173	214	214	135	174	71	155	135	177	177	177	314	409
NOx	1A3ai(i)														131	116	225	213	271	289	1	282	284	293	363	366	365	424	523	568
NOx	1A4ciii											48	48	116	48	112	235	78	78	78	78	157	78	235	314	314	235	314	18	163
NMVOC	1A3biv											20	22	24	26	26	222	216	216	264	207	199	193	46	46	46	48	49	129	103
NMVOC	1A4cii															321	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
NMVOC	1B2av												136	150	140	118	138	152	130	140	138	146	146	146	144	146	152	154	154	154
NMVOC	2G											1302	1414	1423	1331	1524	6	1	1	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A2gviii											204	141	125	113	143	15	15	19	19	12	15	6	14	12	16	16	16	28	36
SOx	1A3ai(i)														12	30	15	14	16	16	0	17	17	17	20	20	21	23	28	31
SOx	1A4ai											230	136	118	53	132	124	108	139	139	50	127	21	70	78	72	86	73	83	96
SOx	1A4bi											10	10	11	12	12	64	54	45	48	45	55	52	57	61	59	75	79	84	1
CO	1A1a											328	351	354	388	378	480	486	494	484	455	450	32	31	516	379	44	9	508	67
CO	1A3ai(i)																195	177	191	189	1	197	199	198	217	227	236	247	297	323
CO	6A											40	40	24	37	52	46	51	43	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	46	46	46

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
PM2.5	1A2gviii	2	2	2	2	2	6	7	8	8	5	7	3	6	5	7	7	7	12	16
PM2.5	1A3dii						24	19	13	24	13	30	24	17	16	10	11	5	0	0
PM2.5	1A4bi						2	2	2	2	2	29	28	37	34	42	45	43	53	46
PM2.5	NATIONALTOTAL	983	1325	1284	1283	1259	744	717	688	690	361	496	516	509	413	517	370	331	346	324
PM2.5	NTCOMPL(NECD)						744	717	688	690	361	496	516	509	413	517	370	331	346	324
PM2.5	NTCOMPLIANCE						744	717	688	690	361	496	516	509	413	517	370	331	346	324
PM10	1A2gviii	2	2	2	2	2	6	7	8	8	5	7	3	6	5	7	7	7	12	16
PM10	1A3dii						26	20	14	26	14	33	26	19	17	11	12	6	0	0
PM10	1A4bi						2	2	2	2	2	28	27	36	33	40	43	42	51	44
PM10	3B4giv	27	84	72	72	72	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
TSP	1A4bi						2	2	2	2	2	28	27	35	32	39	42	41	50	43
TSP	NTCOMPL(NECD)						1483	1479	1516	1434	842	1086	1103	1088	933	1112	836	754	762	741
TSP	NTCOMPLIANCE						1483	1479	1516	1434	842	1086	1103	1088	933	1112	836	754	762	741
BC	1A3dii						6076909	4051980	2024931	6076910	2024931	8103959	6076909	6076909	5541922	3695260	3695260	1846664	2	2
BC	NATIONALTOTAL						6077057	4052114	2025060	6077036	2025031	8104093	6077039	6077043	5542040	3695388	3695384	1846782	147	131
BC	NTCOMPL(NECD)						6077057	4052114	2025060	6077036	2025031	8104093	6077039	6077043	5542040	3695388	3695384	1846782	147	131
BC	NTCOMPLIANCE						6077057	4052114	2025060	6077036	2025031	8104093	6077039	6077043	5542040	3695388	3695384	1846782	147	131

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Pb	1A1a											614388	688080	674571	735043	736564	3880000	3930000	4000000	3920000	3680000	3650000	2480000	9680000	3290000	4360000	1240000	629000	11934	22
Pb	2G																2754	17650	4165	2205	20786	18512	5811	1970	83780	72726	73118	72020	75862	75862
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL											667413	741105	726590	788167	763050	3888716	3950428	4006786	3925207	3703699	3761342	2573368	9770983	3464973	4525978	1409137	798440	205052	198527
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)																3888716	3950428	4006786	3925207	3703699	3761342	2573368	9770983	3464973	4525978	1409137	798440	205052	198527
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE																3888716	3950428	4006786	3925207	3703699	3761342	2573368	9770983	3464973	4525978	1409137	798440	205052	198527
Cd	1A1a											472606	529292	518901	565418	566588	5050	5115	5195	5093	4788	4739	3544	3512	4388	3868	925	3425	312	4
Cd	1A4bi																1	1	1	1	1	837	811	1081	973	1216	1297	1244	1532	1393
Cd	1A4ciii													27			4200	1400	1400	1400	1400	2800	1400	4200	5600	5600	4200	5600	314	2913
Cd	2G																357	2135	3055	374	175	81	166	212	137	138	136	143	0	0
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL											478202	534955	524578	571100	571264	9876	8897	9884	7179	6619	10712	7997	9480	11579	11293	7050	10884	2745	4989
Hg	1A1a											472606	529292	518901	565418	566588	8280	8423	8600	7936	7461	7307	7668	8408	6879	6695	3675	2577	1763	1397
Hg	1A4ciii													80			1302	434	434	434	434	868	434	1302	1736	1736	1302	1736	97	903
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL											630535	687287	538189	584673	584718	26119	27538	28154	25119	27161	27702	26075	27122	37308	33231	32377	31502	30829	31172

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
DIOX	1A3bi																63	64	65	70	61	64	62	60	59	59	59	58	57	54
HCB	1A4ciii																240	80	80	80	80	160	80	240	320	320	240	320	18	166
PCB	1A4ciii																300	100	100	100	100	200	100	300	400	400	300	400	22	208