Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA for CLRTAP

KCA for NECD

Inv. comparison

Time series

Trend graphs

Add Comments

---

TIME SERIES

Party: MT      Submission year: 2019

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2017
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2017
PMs: 2000 - 2017

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
NOx	1A3ai(ii)														752	777	773	786	817	829	829	829	829	829	829	0	0	773	773
NOx	1A3dii											339	339	372	402	395	915	855	1191	2	1137	3	1134	1144	1163	1172	1251	1350	1420
NMVOC	1A3biv											20	22	24	26	26	222	216	216	264	207	199	193	46	46	46	48	49	49
NMVOC	1A3di(i)												151	155	191	205	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NMVOC	1B2av												136	150	140	118	138	152	130	140	138	146	146	146	144	146	152	154	154
NMVOC	2B10b											54	42	199	96	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36
NMVOC	2G											1302	1414	1423	1331	1524	6	1	1	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	0
SOx	1A3ai(i)														12	30	15	14	16	16	16	17	17	17	20	20	21	23	28
SOx	1A3ai(ii)														73	75	75	76	79	81	81	81	81	81	81	0	0	75	75
NH3	1A1a																							2	42	15	5	4	2
CO	1A1a											328	351	354	388	378	480	486	494	484	455	450	32	31	516	379	44	9	509
CO	1A3dii											226	226	248	268	263	30	28	39	0	37	0	37	37	38	38	41	44	46
CO	1A4bi											31	29	30	31	32	7	6	6	6	7	6	7	6	6	6	7	6	7
CO	6A											40	40	24	37	52	46	51	43	41	41	41	41	41	41	41		46	46

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
PM2.5	1A2gviii	2	2	2	2	2	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	11	11	10
PM2.5	1A3dii						23	21	29	0	28	0	28	28	28	28	30	32	34
PM10	1A3dii						47	44	60	0	58	0	58	58	59	59	63	68	72
PM10	3B4giv	27	84	72	72	72	2	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1
TSP	1A3dii						47	44	60	0	58	0	58	58	59	59	63	68	72
BC	1A1a						26	26	24	23	8	10	12	13	8	13	4	3	1
BC	2G						15	3	2	1	0	1	5	7	1	0	0	0	0

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Pb	1A1a											614388	688080	674571	735043	736564	3880000	3930000	4000000	3920000	3680000	3650000	2480000	9680000	3290000	4360000	1240000	629000	11929
Pb	2G																2754	17650	4165	2205	20786	18512	5811	1970	83780	72726	73118	72020	75862
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL											667413	741105	726590	788167	763050	3887397	3952643	4009740	3927495	3707097	3762231	2577009	9772591	3464942	4527205	1412547	801122	187274
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE																3887397	3952643	4009740	3927495	3707097	3762231	2577009	9772591	3464942	4527205	1412547	801122	187274
Cd	1A1a											472606	529292	518901	565418	566588	5050	5115	5195	5093	4788	4739	3544	3512	4388	3868	925	3425	312
Cd	1A3dii											52	52	57	62	61	42	40	55	0	52	0	52	53	53	54	58	62	65
Cd	2G																357	2135	3055	374	175	81	166	212	137	138	136	143	0
Cd	5C1bv																				2791	2407	2758	2883	3008	3178	3397	3748	17
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL											478202	534955	524578	571100	571264	5675	7521	8549	5757	8073	9519	8584	7181	8110	7793	5103	7975	972
Hg	1A1a											472606	529292	518901	565418	566588	8280	8423	8600	7936	7461	7307	7668	8408	6879	6695	3675	2577	1445
Hg	1A3bi																730	741	767	900	782	811	810	813	821	837	877	890	890
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL											630535	687287	538189	584673	584718	24780	27028	27691	24476	26716	26261	25223	25371	35120	31181	30710	29487	26409

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
DIOX	1A3bi																63	64	65	70	61	64	62	60	59	59	59	58	58
HCB	1A3bi																55	56	58	63	55	59	58	56	56	56	56	55	55
PCB	1A3bi																10	10	10	12	10	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12