Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

TIME SERIES

Party: MT Submission year: 2017

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2015
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2015
PMs: 2000 - 2015

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
NOx	1A3ai(i)														131	116	173	188	201	201	201	201	201	201	201	0	0
NOx	1A3ai(ii)														752	777	773	786	817	829	829	829	829	829	829	0	0
NOx	1A3bi											1218	1032	956	873	778	737	687	547	547	488	363	734	980	252	0	0
NOx	1A3bii											221	50	46	42	37	19	18	16	14	15	24	424	380	80	0	0
NOx	1A3biii											1992	2780	2778	2692	2381	2031	2147	1935	1799	1871	1662	1330	1320	192	0	0
NOx	1A4ci											188	188		188	188	7	8	8	8	8	6	188	188	188
NMVOC	1A3bi											941	781	713	631	544	487	425	373	311	243	159	464	464	464	1	1
NMVOC	1A3biii											389	503	457	398	335	263	263	223	199	187	156	208	208	208	0	0
NMVOC	1A3biv											20	22	24	26	26	110	84	104	107	122	53	44	44	44	0	0
NMVOC	1A4cii															321	321	321	321	321	321					2	2
NMVOC	2B10b											54	42	199	96	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36
NH3	3B1a											216	205	198	187	193	193	184	186	178	171	157	157	157	157	157	120
NH3	3B1b											130	124	132	127	142	146	144	146	130	115	106	106	106	106	106	220
CO	1A1a											328	351	354	388	378	385	388	396	389	389	315	340	443	987	217	159
CO	1A3bi																				30000	9260	9729	9729	9729	60	5
CO	1A3bii																					393	507	507	507	0	0
CO	1A3biii																					704	290	290	290	0	0
CO	1A3biv																					1	484	484	484	1	1
CO	1A4ai											22	19	18	18	22	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
CO	1A4bi											31	29	30	31	32	36	39	39	37	37	29	158	158	158		0
CO	5C1bv																						3	1	1	1	20
CO	6A											40	40	24	37	52	46	51	43	41	41	41	41	41	41	41
CO	NATIONALTOTAL											660	677	702	755	760	729	800	838	844	30844	10897	11661	11762	12306	363	228

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
PM2.5	1A1a	242	266	264	289	286	294	297	304	287	287	132	175	165	103	550	201
PM2.5	1A2gviii	6	5	4	4	6	14	10	13	12	12		15	15	15	4	10
PM2.5	1A3bi	76	75	73	72	68	96	103	101	99	99	17	26	26	26	0	0
PM2.5	1A3bii	137	26	24	21	18	13	11	11	10	10	5	100	100	100	0	0
PM2.5	1A3biii	506	924	892	870	857	890	909	926	944	944	106	43	43	43	0	0
PM2.5	1A3bvi											213	214	214	214	0	0
PM2.5	NATIONALTOTAL	988	1328	1287	1285	1262	1347	1380	1391	1389	1389	745	843	833	771	582	239
PM10	1A3bi	76	75	73	72	68	96	103	103	108	108	17	26	26	26	0	0
PM10	1A3bii	26	26	24	22	47	15	14	14	14	14	5	100	100	100	0	0
PM10	1A3biii	469	860	835	819	810	955	948	957	1061	1061	106	43	43	43	0	0
PM10	1A3bvi											400	402	402	402	0	0
PM10	3B4giv	27	84	72	72	72	74	58	58	58	58	58	58	58	58	58	0
PM10	NATIONALTOTAL	1425	1960	1902	1959	1970	2159	2211	2189	2214	2214	1295	1415	1398	1295	1023	376
TSP	1A2gviii	2	2	2	2	2	4	1	2	2	2	13	24	24	24	4	10
TSP	1A3bii	137	26	24	22	47	15	14	14	14	14	5	100	100	100	0	0
TSP	1A3biii	469	860	835	819	810	955	948	957	1066	1066	106	43	43	43	0	0
TSP	1A3bvi											521	525	525	525	0	0
TSP	3B3	63	64	61	57	60	57	47	62	51	51	51	51	51	51	51	25
TSP	3B4giv	47	148	127	127	127	130	102	102	102	102	102	102	102	102	102	0
BC	5C1bv													0	0	0	20
BC	NATIONALTOTAL													25	17	122	53

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Pb	1A1a											614388	688080	674571	735043	736564	763090	772776	793948	724428	724428	96687	2488501	9675930	5300000	4200000	534000
Pb	1A3bvi																					3258022	3277263	3277263	3277263	94	104000
Pb	5C1bv																						9	14172	16550	447	20000
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL											667413	741105	726590	788167	763050	797672	807333	828532	734574	734574	3412140	5800101	13001694	8628142	4201632	659160
Cd	1A1a											472606	529292	518901	565418	566588	586992	594443	610729	557253	557253	25292	3544	3512	4773	5000	2800
Cd	1A3bi											800	743	726	722	708	739	1782	781	798	798					1200	1400
Cd	1A3bvi																					14131	14215	14215	14215	500	500
Cd	5C1bv																								0	1537	300
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL											478202	534955	524578	571100	571264	591734	600324	615601	559078	559078	50748	19090	19058	20319	8888	5643
Hg	1A1a											472606	529292	518901	565418	566588	586992	594443	610729	557253	557253	6317			12839	6600	3200
Hg	5C1bv																						0	354	140	89	16
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL											628400	685086	535972	582441	582471	602902	610340	626640	560632	560632	6917	455	808	13433	8039	4781

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
DIOX	1A1a																						0	67	23	4455	24
DIOX	5C1bv																						0		10620	0	0