Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA for CLRTAP

KCA for NECD

Inv. comparison

Time series

Trend graphs

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TIME SERIES

Party: MT      Submission year: 2015

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09 and NFR14 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2013
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2013
PMs: 2000 - 2013

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
NOx	1A3bii											221	50	46	42	37	19	18	16	14	15	24	424	380	80
NOx	1A3biii											1992	2780	2778	2692	2381	2031	2147	1935	1799	1871	1662	1330	1320	192
NOx	1A4ci											188	188		188	188	7	8	8	8	8	6	188	188	188
NOx	NATIONALTOTAL											8653	9341	9211	9802	9701	9347	9363	9233	9024	8971	8114	7852	8650	4872
NMVOC	1A1a											110	120	120	130	130	130	130	130	130	122	20	52	170	350
NMVOC	2B10b											54	42	199	96	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36
CO	1A1a											328	351	354	388	378	385	388	396	389	389	315	340	443	987
CO	1A3biv																					1	484	484	484
CO	1A4ai											22	19	18	18	22	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
CO	6A											40	40	24	37	52	46	51	43	41	41	41	41	41	41

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
PM2.5	1A3bii	137	26	24	21	18	13	11	11	10	10	5	100	100	100
PM10	1A3bii	26	26	24	22	47	15	14	14	14	14	5	100	100	100
PM10	3B4giv	27	84	72	72	72	74	58	58	58	58	58	58	58	58
TSP	1A3bii	137	26	24	22	47	15	14	14	14	14	5	100	100	100
TSP	3B3	63	64	61	57	60	57	47	62	51	51	51	51	51	51
TSP	3B4giv	47	148	127	127	127	130	102	102	102	102	102	102	102	102

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Pb	1A1a											614388	688080	674571	735043	736564	763090	772776	793948	724428	724428	96687	2488501	9675930	4505878
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL											667413	741105	726590	788167	763050	797672	807333	828532	734574	734574	3412140	5800101	13001694	7834020
Cd	1A1a											472606	529292	518901	565418	566588	586992	594443	610729	557253	557253	25292	3544	3512	4773
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL											478202	534955	524578	571100	571264	591734	600324	615601	559078	559078	50748	19090	19058	20319
Hg	1A1a											472606	529292	518901	565418	566588	586992	594443	610729	557253	557253	6317			12839
Hg	5C1bv																						0	354	140
Hg	NATIONALTOTAL											628400	685086	535972	582441	582471	602902	610340	626640	560632	560632	6917	455	808	13433

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
DIOX	1A1a																						0	67	23