Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA for CLRTAP

Inv. comparison

Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: MK      Submission year: 2023

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2021
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2021
PMs: 2000 - 2021

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
NOx	1A2a	1834	977	1250	1002	490	700	17	139	1814	1321	1269	791	861	1195	1196	2070	2638	3399	2919	2054	2753	2020	3009	2698	2019	1522	1356	926	1089	1418	1344	1302
NOx	1A4ai	143	25	42	26	26	26	26	26	899	1183	392	221	2891	1113	813	1643	1324	1250	711	1196	1137	489	605	581	520	617	664	603	543	525	422	369
NOx	1A4aii																						551	1135	511	523	530	541	564	566	611	538	547
NMVOC	1A2a	202	219	258	207	101	203	1	29	504	341	246	208	171	312	348	579	684	873	763	425	641	549	778	660	549	439	412	268	349	501	529	500
NMVOC	1A3biv	998	1058	1590	1740	841	1335	1566	1992	2066	2031	2160	441	670	628	800	13	14	14	10	12	56	56	53	46	17	22	27	30	22	15	6	12
NMVOC	1B2av	1184	915	556	1194	235	1657	669	919	969	1029	789	1918	356	677	767	805	819	909	912	895	1033	1133	1145	1253	1197	1321	1491	1721	1745	1886	1664	1847
NMVOC	2D3a	2434	2441	2467	2479	2349	2370	2390	2403	2415	2426	2437	2446	2428	2436	2442	1099	1549	1878	1843	1467	2320	2176	1884	1902	2025	2141	2143	1546	1591	1577	1624	1464
NMVOC	2D3d	3779	3446	3232	3033	2753	2562	2707	2766	2829	2739	2804	2809	2797	2851	2762	1517	2541	2666	2752	2300	2594	2848	3425	3315	3205	3309	3091	2683	2522	2627	2487	2634
NMVOC	3De	1135	1114	1125	1117	1116	1109	1110	1105	1112	1104	1063	1070	1132	1121	1088	1057	1054	926	915	872	964	963	1065	1084	1086	1087	1090	1089	1087	1088	1085	1084
NMVOC	NTCOMPL(NECD)	46883	41196	43525	45629	40617	43141	42828	43824	43666	44425	46422	38594	37575	37141	37352	20595	26388	27024	26764	24968	26083	26592	26422	25913	25735	24851	24452	23991	23258	22651	17847	18003
SOx	1A1a	102149	81794	78885	81346	83802	88839	85118	88368	96981	88482	97887	100995	88937	87246	87637	86823	84412	87735	67354	97049	77477	96048	82925	75027	76901	69507	56267	49188	53855	108035	88868	83137
SOx	1A2a	1402	1976	2282	1828	894	1921	2	254	4734	3165	2136	1758	1292	2651	3020	4866	5810	7674	6778	3506	5410	4968	6863	5881	4964	3997	3729	2308	2809	4369	3401	3618
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	112186	91280	88471	90981	90258	96627	90512	94852	109383	99368	106278	108329	96254	94885	95759	94907	93268	98625	76954	103183	85762	103519	91390	82067	82717	75041	63303	54756	59831	115453	93455	88626
SOx	NTCOMPL(NECD)	112186	91280	88471	90981	90258	96627	90512	94852	109383	99368	106278	108329	96254	94885	95759	94907	93268	98625	76954	103183	85762	103519	91390	82067	82717	75041	63303	54756	59831	115453	93455	88626
SOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	112186	91280	88471	90981	90258	96627	90512	94852	109383	99368	106278	108329	96254	94885	95759	94907	93268	98625	76954	103183	85762	103519	91390	82067	82717	75041	63303	54756	59831	115453	93455	88626
NH3	11B											96	105	110	38	36	62	72	689	301	21	94	174	386	57	23	63	43	268	56	314	25	246
NH3	1B2d									456	375	382	566	317	322	288	243	245	261	242	297	297	299	258	207	178	164	160	148	146	136	130	127
NH3	3B3	835	809	820	906	850	857	925	915	951	1080	972	900	946	894	764	757	819	1248	1171	921	908	912	831	804	778	886	954	942	901	628	748	846
NH3	3Da2a	3491	3261	3255	3336	3347	3357	3149	3087	2945	3035	3014	2820	2774	2671	2656	2557	2645	2777	2752	2440	2483	2609	2389	2399	2380	2412	2506	2480	2048	1650	1719	1628
CO	1A1a	2657	2096	2021	2085	2147	2277	2181	2264	2503	2284	2536	2614	2304	2249	2248	2227	2171	2283	1019	1803	1748	2512	3354	1982	2034	1908	1684	1763	1030	1803	1095	807
CO	1A2a	1504	2064	2388	1913	936	1999	2	265	4928	3299	2240	1855	1382	2796	3178	5155	6139	8060	7106	3705	5714	5197	7211	6159	5193	4180	3903	2431	3007	4616	3843	3976
CO	1A3biii	2736	3758	4450	4641	4024	4512	4472	4574	4634	4619	4793	3928	4238	1	3510	576	540	588	542	545	434	383	324	323	1628	1759	1822	1777	1632	1577	1353	1358

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
PM2.5	11B	4933	612	171	76	30	7	90	4281	247	11	14	386	708	106	133	225	122	575	40	665	56	3396
PM2.5	2C2	10112	1517	2607	11627	14370	12333	10229	5997	7451	1355	5254	9783	8988	11494	5999	3965	2592	21	31	47	50	44
PM2.5	2G	513	705	555	694	414	73	51	28	118	132	281	274	85	172	301	244	173	163	311	208	185	152
PM10	11B	6029	748	209	93	37	9	110	5232	302	13	17	472	865	129	162	275	149	703	49	813	69	4150
PM10	2A5a	246	174	143	37	17	141	230	348	355	289	342	355	352	389	361	379	416	392	393	419	389	366
PM10	2C2	14326	2149	3693	16471	20358	17472	14491	8496	10555	1919	7443	13859	12733	16111	8451	5563	3672	29	44	67	70	63
PM10	2D3b	984	412	359	373	448	542	393	305	510	696	860	1070	1010	1167	1116	12	15	14	16	16	17	17
TSP	11B	9317	1155	323	144	57	14	170	8085	467	20	27	730	1337	200	251	425	230	1086	76	1256	107	6414
TSP	2A5a	502	356	291	75	35	288	470	709	724	590	698	725	718	794	736	773	848	799	802	855	794	746
TSP	2C2	16854	2528	4344	19378	23950	20555	17049	9995	12418	2258	8756	16304	14980	18954	9942	6524	4320	35	52	79	83	74
BC	11B	444	55	15	7	3	1	8	385	22	1	1	35	64	10	12	20	11	52	4	60	5	306
BC	1A2gviii	35	37	39	40	28	105	43	58	58	39	41	44	44	42	44	35	32	32	34	37	41	43
BC	1A4ai	48	7	95	50	41	63	58	55	41	65	59	25	35	27	28	27	29	27	25	24	21	18
BC	2C2	1011	152	261	1163	1437	1233	1023	600	745	135	525	978	899	1149	600	387	259	2	3	5	5	4

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Pb	1A1a	886861	698921	677444	695471	723704	762979	729038	755477	839771	763404	808791	863143	750280	749606	752756	744492	700787	715496	794746	766962	706416	803194	765509	657006	669989	604567	498748	432566	475308	566897	435987	358343
Pb	1A2a	187302	285947	328576	263245	128740	281473	3	36508	692389	461500	306336	256302	184788	386375	442356	712462	847346	1118350	988458	504211	784469	725810	1001068	854928	725227	585537	547220	338003	414327	645908	511099	540243
Pb	1A2gviii	65077	62522	55683	57257	55222	55814	45394	128032	125564	113199	147197	158392	165517	205601	292505	168600	118908	125749	116535	73286	78623	84453	81759	78060	69286	181600	430908	426559	416557	385908	117498	222117
Pb	1A3bi	89093506	68602775	76903399	72319879	72319879	78564788	78046806	79470776	79326235	79651039	82324210	81595190	86890465	82384938	17134064	231	217	242	244	260	272	297	268	300	199	205	223	223	227	236	175	208
Pb	1A4bii	633439	390037	456021	731335	413944	504952	500014	495345	497487	458814	448275	446617	422557	399792	424380	399792	422585	421876	421208	420500	419660	418729	418219	417712	417009	416324	415900	415414	415094	414728	414903	416397
Pb	2C1	4071069	3475916	2522925	1627581	644207	383672	589338	1059260	1600092	1092081	2014496	2683543	4416819	3498475	3833309	3715797	4164251	4520190	3525026	3245608	3495650	3969004	2594648	1673880	2292911	2147496	259670	416398	408622	370526	277995	482180
Pb	2C5	131064150	116827700	139556800	130446050	124682350	134043050	141176050	155643000	169193300	118543300	102242667	81401978	72067200	39720600	20827800	197200	266800	104400	121800	226200						6885	11627	19464	27498	28501	26881	26881
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	232532780	196723892	227601077	212796757	203799881	222295688	229680872	244710316	259983478	208329609	195508609	172408244	170814404	132011976	45720024	6475693	7035918	7528516	6451755	5750798	6001141	6522814	5398606	4234187	4724273	4540168	2785841	2643115	2730119	3021250	2350669	2637558
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	232532780	196723892	227601077	212796757	203799881	222295688	229680872	244710316	259983478	208329609	195508609	172408244	170814404	132011976	45720024	6475693	7035918	7528516	6451755	5750798	6001141	6522814	5398606	4234187	4724273	4540168	2785841	2643115	2730119	3021250	2350669	2637558
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	232532780	196723892	227601077	212796757	203799881	222295688	229680872	244710316	259983478	208329609	195508609	172408244	170814404	132011976	45720024	6475693	7035918	7528516	6451755	5750798	6001141	6522814	5398606	4234187	4724273	4540168	2785841	2643115	2730119	3021250	2350669	2637558
Cd	1A2a	2531	3847	4422	3542	1732	3784	0	491	9313	6213	4123	3448	2488	5230	5976	10627	12276	15442	13409	6799	11218	9803	14324	11550	9795	7923	7387	4564	6849	9891	13229	11531
Cd	1A2gviii	5017	4806	4252	4387	4106	4042	4125	5757	4849	5252	6937	7373	7559	7288	8606	33057	9228	9183	9573	5790	6276	7064	6855	5986	5837	6810	11510	11454	11401	10910	7413	9023
Cd	2C5	350738	316125	372403	347075	330930	356556	377167	415096	449619	317739	272250	218352	194210	110555	53865	510	690	270	315	585						132	224	374	529	548	517	517
Cd	2C6	892075	883945	772050	375680	368540	1428815	1622145	407525	595115	407100	260000	260000	280000	140000	125000
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1606218	1508612	1459609	1063556	1017342	2109136	2319240	1148587	1395942	1072890	935098	822754	807456	606390	538953	287469	263601	263641	262803	253277	249160	265886	267884	243343	244395	241211	239365	222917	223249	237247	217928	227026
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1606218	1508612	1459609	1063556	1017342	2109136	2319240	1148587	1395942	1072890	935098	822754	807456	606390	538953	287469	263601	263641	262803	253277	249160	265886	267884	243343	244395	241211	239365	222917	223249	237247	217928	227026
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	1606218	1508612	1459609	1063556	1017342	2109136	2319240	1148587	1395942	1072890	935098	822754	807456	606390	538953	287469	263601	263641	262803	253277	249160	265886	267884	243343	244395	241211	239365	222917	223249	237247	217928	227026
Hg	1A2a	11400	16995	19557	15668	7663	16670	4	2173	41026	27370	18270	15640	11536	23518	26858	42914	50991	67105	59317	30637	47173	43424	59649	51151	43390	35032	32857	20571	24965	38588	30202	32128
Hg	2C1	88502	75563	54846	35382	14004	8341	12812	23027	34785	23741	43793	58338	96018	76054	83333	80778	90527	98265	76631	70557	75992	86283	56405	36389	49846	46685	13157	21098	20704	18773	14085	24430

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
DIOX	1A2a	288	435	500	400	196	427	0	56	1051	701	466	390	282	588	672	1088	1292	1701	1502	768	1196	1103	1525	1300	1102	889	831	514	635	986	806	840
HCB	1A2a	865	1323	1520	1218	595	1302		169	3204	2137	1417	1186	855	1800	2057	3699	4259	5327	4617	2337	3884	3374	4962	3974	3371	2728	2543	1571	2410	3455	4817	4146
PCB	2C5	124257100	126130200	127625200	114811700	106169100	117581300	131060900	141312400	146487800	114625000	90937333	79439022	74288800	56442400	11491200	108800	147200	57600	67200	124800						6884800	11627200	19463600	27497600	28501200	26881400	26881400
PCB	2K	202800000	203396400	205600000	206600000	195726500	197480000	199139800	200234000	201270500	202157800	203111200	203865100	202365400	202989200	203519600	203851400	204194100	204517700	204861900	205272200	205728400	205979400	206229400	206576900	206917200	207127800	207370200	207530100	207713200	207713200	208713200	209713200