Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

Recalculations

KCA

Inv. comparison

Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: MK      Submission year: 2022

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2020
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2020
PMs: 2000 - 2020

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
NOx	1A2a	1834	977	1250	1002	490	700	17	139	1814	1321	1269	791	861	1195	1196	2070	2638	2704	2639	2054	2753	2020	2687	2675	2019	1522	1432	926	1089	1267	1293
NOx	1A4ai	143	25	42	26	26	26	26	26	899	1183	392	221	2891	1113	893	1643	1324	1250	711	1196	1137	489	605	581	520	617	664	603	543	525	417
NOx	NTCOMPL(NECD)	45472	37628	39462	40931	36745	39293	38565	397207	43177	40430	43763	40760	40811	35825	37145	34479	34826	37215	33560	34792	36257	38609	36143	28870	26273	25470	24715	23330	22548	22981	19938
NMVOC	1A3biv	998	1058	1590	1740	841	1335	1566	1992	2066	2031	2160	441	670	628	800	13	14	14	10	12	56	56	53	46	17	22	27	30	22	15	6
NMVOC	1B2av	1184	915	556	1194	235	1657	669	919	969	1029	789	1918	356	677	767	805	819	909	912	895	1033	1133	1145	1253	1197	1321	1491	1721	1745	1886	1664
NMVOC	2D3a	2434	2441	2467	2479	2349	2370	2390	2403	2415	2426	2437	2446	2428	2436	2442	2446	2450	2454	2458	2463	2469	2472	2475	2479	2483	2486	2488	2490	2493	2492	2483
NMVOC	2D3d	3779	3446	3232	3033	2753	2562	2707	2766	2829	2739	2804	2809	2797	2851	2762	1517	2541	2666	2752	2300	2594	2848	3425	3315	3205	3309	3205	3309	3091	2683	2522
NMVOC	2D3e	2434	2441	2467	2479	2349	2370	2390	2403	2415	2426	2437	2446	2428	2436	2442	1099	1549	1878	1843	1467	2320	2176	1884	1902	2025	2141	2143	1546	1591	1577	1624
NMVOC	3De	1135	1114	1125	1117	1116	1109	1110	1105	1112	1104	1063	1070	1132	1121	1088	1057	1054	926	915	872	964	963	1065	1084	1086	1087	1090	1089	1087	1088	1085
NMVOC	NTCOMPL(NECD)	47592	41908	44245	46353	41302	43832	43525	397207	44371	45133	47133	39307	38283	37852	38105	21308	27103	27622	27350	25686	26803	27313	27023	26539	26459	25575	25330	25343	24554	23354	22339
SOx	1A2a	1402	1976	2282	1828	894	1921	2	254	4734	3165	2136	1758	1292	2651	3020	4866	5810	6757	5478	3506	5410	4968	5881	4857	4964	3997	4123	2308	2809	3582	3356
SOx	NATIONALTOTAL	112186	91280	88471	90981	90258	96627	90512	94852	109383	99368	106278	108329	96254	94885	96173	94907	93268	97709	75654	103183	85762	103519	90407	81043	82717	75041	63696	54758	59828	114655	93418
SOx	NTCOMPL(NECD)	112186	91280	88471	90981	90258	96627	90512	397207	109383	99368	106278	108329	96254	94885	96173	94907	93268	97709	75654	103183	85762	103519	90407	81043	82717	75041	63696	54758	59828	114655	93418
SOx	NTCOMPLIANCE	112186	91280	88471	90981	90258	96627	90512	94852	109383	99368	106278	108329	96254	94885	96173	94907	93268	97709	75654	103183	85762	103519	90407	81043	82717	75041	63696	54758	59828	114655	93418
NH3	11B											96	105	110	38	36	62	72	689	301	21	94	174	386	57	23	63	43	268	56	314	25
NH3	3B3	835	809	820	906	850	857	925	915	951	1080	972	900	946	894	764	757	819	1248	1171	921	908	912	831	804	778	886	954	942	901	628	748
NH3	3Da2a	3491	3261	3255	3336	3347	3357	3149	3087	2945	3035	3014	2820	2774	2671	2656	2557	2645	2777	2752	2440	2483	2609	2389	2399	2380	2412	2506	2480	2048	1650	1719
NH3	NTCOMPL(NECD)	15805	14830	14937	15257	15196	14991	13949	397207	13228	13407	13494	12735	12117	12060	12160	11214	11488	11278	11229	10430	10631	11058	10264	10294	10321	10365	10417	10258	9787	8576	8473
CO	1A1a	2657	2096	2021	2085	2147	2277	2181	2264	2503	2284	2536	2614	2304	2249	2248	2227	2171	2283	1019	1803	1748	2512	3354	1982	2034	1908	1684	1763	1030	1803	1095
CO	1A2a	1504	2064	2388	1913	936	1999	2	265	4928	3299	2240	1855	1382	2796	3178	5155	6139	7081	5757	3705	5714	5197	6155	5102	5193	4180	4311	2431	3007	3802	3795
CO	1A3biii	2736	3758	4450	4641	4024	4512	4472	4574	4634	4619	4793	3928	4238	1	3510	576	540	588	542	545	434	383	324	323	1628	1759	1822	1777	1632	1577	1353
CO	NTCOMPL(NECD)	132397	111538	123461	133280	120871	125249	123167	397207	128723	131742	144144	113242	115029	116052	121204	25856	69736	69639	64089	62669	61651	63170	64753	62457	61395	62313	62557	54514	53968	54011	49514

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
PM2.5	11B	4933	612	171	76	30	7	90	4281	247	11	14	386	708	106	133	225	122	575	40	665	56
PM2.5	2C2	10112	1517	2607	11627	14370	12333	10229	5997	7451	1355	5254	9783	8988	11494	5999	3965	2592	21	31	47	50
PM10	11B	6029	748	209	93	37	9	110	5232	302	13	17	472	865	129	162	275	149	703	49	813	69
PM10	2A5a	246	174	143	37	17	141	230	348	355	289	342	355	352	389	361	379	416	392	393	419	389
PM10	2C2	14326	2149	3693	16471	20358	17472	14491	8496	10555	1919	7443	13859	12733	16111	8451	5563	3672	29	44	67	70
PM10	2D3b	984	412	359	373	448	542	393	305	510	696	860	1070	1010	1167	1116	12	15	14	16	16	17
TSP	11B	9317	1155	323	144	57	14	170	8085	467	20	27	730	1337	200	251	425	230	1086	76	1256	107
TSP	2A5a	502	356	291	75	35	288	470	709	724	590	698	725	718	794	736	773	848	799	802	855	794
TSP	2C2	16854	2528	4344	19378	23950	20555	17049	9995	12418	2258	8756	16304	14980	18954	9942	6524	4320	35	52	79	83
BC	11B	444	55	15	7	3	1	8	385	22	1	1	35	64	10	12	20	11	52	4	60	5
BC	1A2gviii	35	37	39	40	28	105	43	58	58	39	41	44	44	42	44	35	32	32	34	37	43
BC	1A4ai	48	7	95	50	44	63	58	55	41	65	59	25	35	27	28	27	29	27	25	24	22
BC	2C2	1011	152	261	1163	1437	1233	1023	600	745	135	525	978	899	1149	600	387	259	2	3	5	5
BC	NTCOMPL(NECD)	2732	1473	1632	2603	2872	34937	2160	1743	1838	1243	1652	2148	2176	2438	1762	1557	1413	1021	982	1020	1004

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Pb	1A1a	886861	698921	677444	695471	723704	762979	729038	755477	839771	763404	808791	863143	750280	749606	752756	744492	700787	715496	794746	766962	706416	803194	765509	657006	669989	604567	498748	432566	475308	566897	435987
Pb	1A2a	187302	285947	328576	263245	128740	281473	3	36508	692389	461500	306336	256302	184788	386375	442356	712462	847346	988425	795187	504211	784469	725810	854927	699872	725227	585537	605994	338003	414327	528831	504882
Pb	1A2gviii	16871	16915	16826	16739	18382	20033	6585	81457	91572	71345	87009	88130	93046	146549	229466	100498	40381	39231	33846	26403	20903	17031	18502	21432	18502	127383	358407	354467	343225	313613	43148
Pb	1A3bi	89093506	68602775	76903399	72319879	72319879	78564788	78046806	79470776	79326235	79651039	82324210	81595190	86890465	82384938	17134064	231	217	242	244	260	272	297	268	300	199	205	223	223	227	236	175
Pb	1A4bii	633439	390037	456021	731335	413944	504952	500014	495345	497487	458814	448275	446617	422557	399792	424380	399792	422585	421876	421208	420500	419660	418729	418219	417712	417009	416324	415900	415414	415094	414728	414903
Pb	2C1	4071069	3475916	2522925	1627581	644207	383672	589338	1059260	1600092	1092081	2014496	2683543	4416819	3498475	3833309	3715797	4164251	4520190	3525026	3245608	3495650	3969004	2594648	1673880	2292911	2147496	259670	416398	408622	370526	277995
Pb	2C5	131064150	116827700	139556800	130446050	124682350	134043050	141176050	155643000	169193300	118543300	102242667	81401978	72067200	39720600	20827800	197200	266800	104400	121800	226200						6885	11627	19464	27498	28501	26881
Pb	NATIONALTOTAL	232484574	196678286	227562220	212756240	203763042	222259906	229642062	244663741	259949485	208287755	195448421	172337982	170741933	131952924	45718647	6407590	6957390	7312073	6175795	5703914	5943421	6455392	5189207	4022502	4673490	4485951	2772114	2571024	2656787	2830583	2267050
Pb	NTCOMPL(NECD)	232484574	196678286	227562220	212756240	203763042	222259906	229642062	397206864	259949485	208287755	195448421	172337982	170741933	131952924	45718647	94906746	6957390	7312073	6175795	5703914	5943421	6455392	5189207	4022502	4673490	4485951	2772114	2571024	2656787	2830583	2267050
Pb	NTCOMPLIANCE	232484574	196678286	227562220	212756240	203763042	222259906	229642062	244663741	259949485	208287755	195448421	172337982	170741933	131952924	45718647	6407590	6957390	7312073	6175795	5703914	5943421	6455392	5189207	4022502	4673490	4485951	2772114	2571024	2656787	2830583	2267050
Cd	1A2a	2531	3847	4422	3542	1732	3784	0	491	9313	6213	4123	3448	2488	5230	5976	10627	12276	13407	10813	6799	11218	9803	11550	9469	9795	7923	8177	4564	6849	8319	13152
Cd	1A2gviii	1081	1083	1080	1079	1098	1121	957	1955	2074	1836	2023	1637	1643	2468	3460	27498	2817	2121	2823	1963	1564	1560	1692	1364	1692	2385	5591	5569	5415	5008	1556
Cd	2C5	350738	316125	372403	347075	330930	356556	377167	415096	449619	317739	272250	218352	194210	110555	53865	510	690	270	315	585						132	224	374	529	548	517
Cd	2C6	892075	883945	772050	375680	368540	1428815	1622145	407525	595115	407100	260000	260000	280000	140000	125000
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1602283	1504889	1456437	1060249	1014335	2106215	2316072	1144785	1393167	1069473	930184	817018	801541	601570	534636	281910	257191	254544	253456	249450	244449	260382	259947	236639	240249	236785	234236	217032	217263	229750	210564
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1602283	1504889	1456437	1060249	1014335	2106215	2316072	397206864	1393167	1069473	930184	817018	801541	601570	534636	11214171	257191	254544	253456	249450	244449	260382	259947	236639	240249	236785	234236	217032	217263	229750	210564
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	1602283	1504889	1456437	1060249	1014335	2106215	2316072	1144785	1393167	1069473	930184	817018	801541	601570	534636	281910	257191	254544	253456	249450	244449	260382	259947	236639	240249	236785	234236	217032	217263	229750	210564
Hg	1A2a	11400	16995	19557	15668	7663	16670	4	2173	41026	27370	18270	15640	11536	23518	26858	42914	50991	59350	47861	30637	47173	43424	51070	41974	43390	35032	36322	20571	24965	31686	29818
Hg	1A2b	18230	14466	14530	14594	13419	12244	3	7274	14545	13942	16256	15203	9918	4709	2	3	4	5	32	3	4	8	5	5	0	5	6	7	6	7	7
Hg	2C1	88502	75563	54846	35382	14004	8341	12812	23027	34785	23741	43793	58338	96018	76054	83333	80778	90527	98265	76631	70557	75992	86283	56405	36389	49846	46685	13157	21098	20704	18773	14085
Hg	2K	20300	20300	20600	20700	19600	19700	19900	20000	20100	20200	20300	20400	20200	20300	20400	20400	20400	20500	20500	20500	20600	20600	20600	20700	20700	20700	20700	20800	20800	20800	20800
Hg	NTCOMPL(NECD)	645216	593573	548067	522799	438431	461914	516385	397206864	617458	550541	560831	585015	612236	464813	449307	24096676	327674	347467	330746	303151	314793	345185	316878	268726	284895	277882	241964	222602	192588	214444	165139

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
DIOX	1A2a	288	435	500	400	196	427	0	56	1051	701	466	390	282	588	672	1088	1292	1502	1210	768	1196	1103	1300	1065	1102	889	920	514	635	809	796
DIOX	NTCOMPL(NECD)	19816	17626	17702	17289	15872	18916	18732	397207	17606	17181	23939	25408	27017	28015	30728	323	25212	26365	25467	27352	29556	35782	38774	39882	39995	49609	51215	51536	8961	9311	8643
HCB	1A2a	865	1323	1520	1218	595	1302		169	3204	2137	1417	1186	855	1800	2057	3699	4259	4617	3723	2337	3884	3374	3974	3256	3371	2728	2815	1571	2410	2913	4791
HCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	44288098	39217306	25828858	24182476	25038004	18628653	19701371	397206864	29336500	53974534	38320470	34146174	52683194	42978272	8515456	11859711	11665039	8869989	7739247	8275427	9580128	10504774	9473046	6351697	4186472	956407	766692	2062305	1531960	4431037	155092
PCB	2C5	124257100	126130200	127625200	114811700	106169100	117581300	131060900	141312400	146487800	114625000	90937333	79439022	74288800	56442400	11491200	108800	147200	57600	67200	124800						6884800	11627200	19463600	27497600	28501200	26881400
PCB	2K	202800000	203396400	205600000	206600000	195726500	197480000	199139800	200234000	201270500	202157800	203111200	203865100	202365400	202989200	203519600	203851400	204194100	204517700	204861900	205272200	205728400	205979400	206229400	206576900	206917200	207127800	207370200	207530100	207713200	207713200	208713200
PCB	NTCOMPL(NECD)	382128365	383548326	383848463	370805260	341564518	356736614	385170177	397206864	403922074	367448307	343987295	333255574	330976672	288377370	241584621	26877298	208296528	208903425	208508658	208548600	209329398	209734078	209568882	209382986	210032115	216912717	221418150	229157765	237368509	238450917	237239606