Review Stage 2: Synthesis and Assessment Country report

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KCA for CLRTAP

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Time series

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TIME SERIES

Party: MK      Submission year: 2021

The aim of this test is to identify instances of dips, jumps, and sudden trends in time series data reported by countries. Only data in NFR02, NFR09, NFR14 and NFR19 reporting format were analyzed and data for which at least three years were reported. We converted all years where only NFR02 or NFR09 sectors are available to NFR14/NFR19 and show only the converted sectors in the time series analysis.

The table below shows data, where outliers in the time series were identified based on the following methodology: Reported time series data were log 10-transformed prior to analysis to reduce intra-series variability and improve general time series linearity. A linear regression was subsequently applied to the log-transformed values for each time series.

An individual value within the time series was identified as a dip/jump if the respective residual value (regression forecast value - reported value) was greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean of all residuals within the time series. Only time series where the flagged data value contributed a significant fraction (>3%) of the national total for the given year are included in this dataset for expert review.

Time series where sigma grow largely (i.e. larger than 20% of the time series mean value) because of extreme variation in the emission data are also flagged. Zero values indicate small numbers rounded to zero.

The test was performed for the following time series (if data was available):
Main pollutants: 1990 – 2019
HMs and POPs: 1990 - 2019
PMs: 2000 - 2019

If there is a number and a notation key reported, the difference is the number

Color Key
	Indicates a dip in the time series data
	Indicates a jump in the time series data
	Indicates time series data with large sigma

MAIN (Unit = Mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
NOx	1A2a	1834	977	1250	1002	490	700	17	139	1814	1321	1269	791	861	1195	1196	2070	2638	2704	2639	2054	2753	2020	2687	2675	2019	1522	1432	926	1089	1297
NOx	1A3bii	590	805	953	994	862	967	958	980	993	990	1027	822	901	938	750	815	699	807	624	1111	1399	1219	1250	1465	283	415	620	644	653	665
NOx	1A4ai	143	25	42	26	26	26	26	26	899	1183	392	221	2891	1113	893	1643	1324	1250	711	1196	1137	489	605	581	520	617	664	603	543	533
NMVOC	1A3biii	592	826	978	1020	884	991	983	1005	1018	1015	1053	862	930	0	770	860	961	1112	851	1152	299	260	267	314	259	246	629	586	529	470
NMVOC	1B2av	1184	915	556	1194	235	1657	669	919	969	1029	789	1918	356	677	767	805	819	909	912	895	1033	1133	1145	1253	1197	1321	1491	1721	1745	1886
NMVOC	2D3a	2434	2441	2467	2479	2349	2370	2390	2403	2415	2426	2437	2446	2428	2436	2442	2446	2450	2454	2458	2463	2469	2472	2475	2479	2483	2486	2488	2490	2493	2492
NMVOC	2D3d	3779	3446	3232	3033	2753	2562	2707	2766	2829	2739	2804	2809	2797	2851	2762	1517	2541	2871	2945	2249	2465	2813	3387	3274	3205	3279	3205	3279	3058	2679
NMVOC	2D3e	1724	1729	1748	1756	1664	1679	1693	1702	1711	1718	1726	1733	1720	1725	1730	1733	1736	1738	1741	1745	1749	1751	1753	1756	1759	1761	1763	1764	1766	1765
NMVOC	3De	1135	1114	1125	1117	1116	1109	1110	1105	1112	1104	1063	1070	1132	1121	1088	1057	1054	926	915	872	964	963	1065	1084	1086	1087	1090	1089	1087	1088
NMVOC	NTCOMPL(NECD)	46878	41194	43524	45629	40617	43141	42828	43823	43665	44425	46422	38596	37610	37209	37425	27853	32642	33757	35225	34823	26976	29936	29963	29852	26535	26074	25681	26316	25418	24034
SOx	1A2a	1402	1976	2282	1828	894	1921	2	254	4734	3165	2136	1758	1292	2651	3020	4866	5810	6757	5478	3506	5410	4968	5881	4857	4964	3997	4123	2308	2809	3736
NH3	11B											96	105	110	38	36	62	72	689	301	21	94	174	386	57	23	63	43	268	56	314
NH3	3B3	835	809	820	906	850	857	925	915	951	1080	972	900	946	894	764	757	819	1248	1171	921	908	912	831	804	778	886	954	942	901	628
CO	1A1a	2657	2096	2021	2085	2147	2277	2181	2264	2503	2284	2536	2614	2304	2249	2248	2227	2171	2283	1019	1803	1748	2512	3354	1982	2034	1908	1684	1763	1030	1802
CO	1A2a	1504	2064	2388	1913	936	1999	2	265	4928	3299	2240	1855	1382	2796	3178	5155	6139	7081	5757	3705	5714	5197	6155	5102	5193	4180	4311	2431	3007	3961
CO	1A3biii	2736	3758	4450	4641	4024	4512	4472	4574	4634	4619	4793	3928	4238	1	3510	3922	4382	5068	3897	5252	1497	1300	1336	1569	1630	1570	5001	4743	4266	3836

PM (Unit = Mg)

		2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
PM2.5	11B	4933	612	171	76	30	7	90	4281	247	11	14	386	708	106	133	225	122	575	40	665
PM2.5	2C2	10112	1517	2607	11627	14370	12333	10229	5997	7451	1355	5254	9783	8988	11494	5999	3965	2592	21	31	47
PM10	11B	6029	748	209	93	37	9	110	5232	302	13	17	472	865	129	162	275	149	703	49	813
PM10	2A5a	246	174	143	37	17	141	230	348	355	289	342	355	352	389	361	379	416	392	393	419
PM10	2C2	14326	2149	3693	16471	20358	17472	14491	8496	10555	1919	7443	13859	12733	16111	8451	5563	3672	29	44	67
PM10	2D3b	984	412	359	373	448	542	393	305	510	696	860	1070	1010	1167	1116	12	15	14	16	16
TSP	11B	9317	1155	323	144	57	14	170	8085	467	20	27	730	1337	200	251	425	230	1086	76	1256
TSP	2A5a	502	356	291	75	35	288	470	709	724	590	698	725	718	794	736	773	848	799	802	855
BC	11B	444	55	15	7	3	1	8	385	22	1	1	35	64	10	12	20	11	52	4	60
BC	1A1a	50	45	42	38	38	38	43	47	34	36	34	35	34	29	22	5	4	3	2	3
BC	1A2gviii	35	37	39	40	28	105	43	58	58	39	41	44	44	42	44	35	32	32	34	33
BC	1A4ai	48	7	95	50	44	63	58	55	41	65	59	25	35	27	28	27	29	27	25	25
BC	2C2	1011	152	261	1163	1437	1233	1023	600	745	135	525	978	899	1149	600	387	259	2	3	5

HM (Unit = g)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Pb	1A1a	886861	698921	677444	695471	723704	762979	729038	755477	839771	763404	808791	863143	750280	749606	752756	744492	700787	715496	794746	766962	706416	803194	765509	657006	669989	604567	498748	432566	475308	566897
Pb	1A2a	187302	285947	328576	263245	128740	281473	3	36508	692389	461500	306336	256302	184788	386375	442356	712462	847346	988425	795187	504211	784469	725810	854927	699872	725227	585537	605994	338003	414327	551645
Pb	1A2gviii	16871	16915	16826	16739	18382	20033	6585	81457	91572	71345	87009	88130	93046	146549	229466	100498	40381	39231	33846	26403	20903	17031	18502	21432	18502	127383	358407	354467	343225	322858
Pb	1A3bi	89093506	68602775	76903399	72319879	72319879	78564788	78046806	79470776	79326235	79651039	82324210	81595190	86890465	82384938	17134064	16368972	1467885	1662369	2701	3090	3672	3497	3140	3475	69434	73406	77466	80658	69434	88104
Pb	1A4bii	633439	390037	456021	731335	413944	504952	500014	495345	497487	458814	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275	448275
Pb	2C1	4071069	3475916	2522925	1627581	644207	383672	589338	1059260	1600092	1092081	2014496	2683543	4416819	3498475	3833309	3715797	4164251	4520190	3525026	3245608	3495650	3969004	2594648	1673880	2292911	2147496	259670	416398	408622	370526
Pb	2C5	131064150	116827700	139556800	130446050	124682350	134043050	141176050	155643000	169193300	118543300	102242667	81401978	72067200	39720600	20827800	197200	266800	104400	121800	226200						6885	11627	19464	27498	28501
Cd	1A1a	108066	85887	83027	85439	88434	93507	89476	92812	102471	93332	101197	106058	92832	91847	92247	91317	87458	90160	96199	93515	86291	97318	92902	79696	81489	73597	60593	52517	57389	68476
Cd	1A2a	2531	3847	4422	3542	1732	3784	0	491	9313	6213	4123	3448	2488	5230	5976	10627	12276	13407	10813	6799	11218	9803	11550	9469	9795	7923	8177	4564	6849	8625
Cd	1A2gviii	1081	1083	1080	1079	1098	1121	957	1955	2074	1836	2023	1637	1643	2468	3460	27498	2817	2121	2823	1963	1564	1560	1692	1364	1692	2385	5591	5569	5415	5503
Cd	2C5	350738	316125	372403	347075	330930	356556	377167	415096	449619	317739	272250	218352	194210	110555	53865	510	690	270	315	585						132	224	374	529	548
Cd	2C6	892075	883945	772050	375680	368540	1428815	1622145	407525	595115	407100	260000	260000	280000	140000	125000
Cd	NATIONALTOTAL	1599750	1502882	1455257	1058129	1014037	2105966	2314622	1143994	1391596	1067880	928013	814910	800192	599939	532899	282713	257849	255577	254499	251420	246250	262140	261919	240337	243595	240160	240974	221274	224044	227029
Cd	NTCOMPL(NECD)	1599750	1502882	1455257	1058129	1014037	2105966	2314622	1143994	1391596	1067880	928013	814910	800192	599939	532899	282713	257849	255577	254499	251420	246250	262140	261919	240337	243595	240160	240974	221274	224044	227029
Cd	NTCOMPLIANCE	1599750	1502882	1455257	1058129	1014037	2105966	2314622	1143994	1391596	1067880	928013	814910	800192	599939	532899	282713	257849	255577	254499	251420	246250	262140	261919	240337	243595	240160	240974	221274	224044	227029
Hg	1A1a	170199	133454	129537	132816	138600	145895	139298	144274	160994	146207	153008	164887	142801	143389	143952	142302	132720	134857	153126	147128	135461	154667	147234	126465	128791	116340	96373	83869	92268	110055
Hg	1A2a	11400	16995	19557	15668	7663	16670	4	2173	41026	27370	18270	15640	11536	23518	26858	42914	50991	59350	47861	30637	47173	43424	51070	41974	43390	35032	36322	20571	24965	33031
Hg	1A2b	18230	14466	14530	14594	13419	12244	3	7274	14545	13942	16256	15203	9918	4709	2	3	4	5	32	3	4	8	5	5	0	5	6	7	6	6
Hg	2C1	88502	75563	54846	35382	14004	8341	12812	23027	34785	23741	43793	58338	96018	76054	83333	80778	90527	98265	76631	70557	75992	86283	56405	36389	49846	46685	13157	21098	20704	18773
Hg	2K	20300	20300	20600	20700	19600	19700	19900	20000	20100	20200	20300	20400	20200	20300	20400	20400	20400	20500	20500	20500	20600	20600	20600	20700	20700	20700	20700	20800	20800	20800

POP (Unit = mg)

		1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
DIOX	1A1a	590	464	450	462	481	507	484	502	558	508	536	573	498	498	500	495	464	473	529	510	470	535	510	437	446	402	332	288	317	378
DIOX	1A2a	288	435	500	400	196	427	0	56	1051	701	466	390	282	588	672	1088	1292	1502	1210	768	1196	1103	1300	1065	1102	889	920	514	635	843
DIOX	NATIONALTOTAL	19816	17626	17702	17289	15872	18916	18732	16001	17606	17181	23939	25408	27017	28015	30728	26702	25036	26162	25257	27122	29303	30638	31839	37805	37853	47141	48917	49118	8825	8851
DIOX	NTCOMPL(NECD)	19816	17626	17702	17289	15872	18916	18732	16001	17606	17181	23939	25408	27017	28015	30728	26702	25036	26162	25257	27122	29303	30638	31839	37805	37853	47141	48917	49118	8825	8851
DIOX	NTCOMPLIANCE	19816	17626	17702	17289	15872	18916	18732	16001	17606	17181	23939	25408	27017	28015	30728	26702	25036	26162	25257	27122	29303	30638	31839	37805	37853	47141	48917	49118	8825	8851
PCB	2C5	124257100	126130200	127625200	114811700	106169100	117581300	131060900	141312400	146487800	114625000	90937333	79439022	74288800	56442400	11491200	108800	147200	57600	67200	124800						6884800	11627200	19463600	27497600	28501200
PCB	2K	202800000	203396400	205600000	206600000	195726500	197480000	199139800	200234000	201270500	202157800	203111200	203865100	202365400	202989200	203519600	203851400	204194100	204517700	204861900	205272200	205728400	205979400	206229400	206576900	206917200	207127800	207370200	207530100	207713200	207713200